LIV Golf Miami Picks & Odds: Rahm Preps For Masters Title Defense

Jon Rahm is a week away from defending his 2023 Masters title and is heading to LIV Golf Miami at Trump National Doral to prepare. We break down his chances in our full LIV Golf betting preview below.

Apr 4, 2024 • 09:27 ET • 4 min read
Jon Rahm LIV Golf Miami
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

All eyes will be on Jon Rahm this week as he gears up to defend his Masters title.

He's yet to win since moving over to LIV Golf but remains the favorite to win LIV Golf Miami at Trump National Doral considering he's finished T8 or better in his first four LIV starts. 

We break down the golf odds and more in our full LIV Golf Miami betting preview below.

The Masters is just days away! Start your research now:

2024 LIV Golf Miami picks

Picks were made on April 3 at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Odds to win LIV Golf Miami

Golfer bet365 DraftKings
Jon Rahm +650 +550
Joaquin Niemann +750 +800
Bryson DeChambeau +1,000 +1,000
Cameron Smith +1,400 +1,400
Dustin Johnson +1,600 +1,400
Tyrrell Hatton +1,600 +1,400
Brooks Koepka +1,600 +1,600
Talor Gooch +2,200 +1,400
Louis Oosthuizen +2,500 +2,500
Adrian Meronk +2,500 +2,800
Paul Casey +2,500 +2,800

Odds as of April 2, 2024. 

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Trump National Doral course notes

LIV Golf hits the Blue Monster at Trump National Doral Miami and the Par-72 track will be stretched out to 7,701 yards with trouble awaiting at every turn. With water hazards on most holes and bunkers defending fairway landing areas and the greens, the margin for error is razor-thin around the Blue Monster.

Before LIV Golf played its team championship at Trump National for the past two years, the Blue Monster played host to the WGC-Cadillac Championship from 2007 through 2016, and the Doral Open from 1962 to 2006. Several LIV players are familiar with the track, with Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, and Patrick Reed all winners at Doral.

LIV Golf Miami picks and predictions

Taylor Gooch to win outright (+1,800)

The Blue Monster sets up perfectly for Talor Gooch’s strengths. He ranks seventh in both birdies and driving percentage this season, and he paced the field in strokes gained on long approaches at LIV Golf Hong Kong. Add ranking second in scrambling percentage and third in overall strokes gained average, and Gooch checks a lot of boxes.

The three-time LIV winner has the all-around game to put circles on the card while avoiding squares and there’s also a nice edge available in the odds. DraftKings has Gooch listed at just +1,400 to win this week, so there’s a positive expected value of 27% attached to the +1,800 Caesars price.

Pick: Talor Gooch to win outright (+1,800 at Caesars, 0.75 units)
Pick: Talor Gooch Top 10 (+130 at Caesars)

Adrian Meronk to win outright (+2,800)

The Polish Prancer won three times on the DP World Tour last year and he’s already carded a pair of Top-10 finishes through four LIV Golf events this season. Meronk pairs his distance off the tee with an excellent short game, so when his approach play returns to top form, he’ll be prancing through victory’s door again.

Meronk has been just below field average in strokes gained on approach and is tied for 32nd in greens-in-regulation percentage through 12 LIV rounds, but he ranked 18th in strokes gained approach on the DP World Tour last year and seventh in GIR%, so I expect improved iron play to be coming soon.

Pick: Adrian Meronk to win outright (+2,800 at DraftKings, 0.5 units)
Pick: Adrian Meronk Top 10 (+200 at DraftKings)

Sam Horsfield to win outright (+13,000)

I’m expecting Sam Horsfield to begin competing in the LIV Golf series over the coming months. He’s a three-time DP Tour winner and is playing much more consistently this season after undergoing hip surgery and being limited to just seven LIV events. 

In particular, after firing an opening-round 71 at the Hong Kong event in March, Horsfield rallied to go 9-under across the final two rounds and finish T19.

His 14 birdies were tied for ninth in the event and he finished third in strokes gained on medium-length approaches and second in strokes gained on short approaches. Additionally, his short game has been better than field average through 12 rounds.

Pick: Sam Horsfield to win outright (+1,800 at DraftKings, 0.25 units)
Pick: Sam Horsfield Top 20 (+160 at DraftKings)

LIV Golf Miami field and favorites

Some might have expected Jon Rahm to notch his first LIV win by now, but the results are far from disappointing. He logged a T3 in his debut at Mayakoba and has gone eighth, fifth, and T8 in three starts since then. 

The lack of winning has seen his outright odds lengthen from +400 to +550 at DraftKings since Mayakoba, but he remains the No. 1 option on the board nonetheless.

Running second on the board at +750 is Joaquin Niemann, whose stock continues to rise with two wins and a T4 in his last four LIV starts. Like Rahm, Niemann is off to Augusta for the Masters next week. 

Bryson DeChambeau rounds out the Top 3 at 10/1 with a plethora of guys below him in the +1,400 to +1,600 range. That group includes Cam Smith, Dustin Johnson, Tyrrell Hatton, and Brooks Koepka. 

LIV Golf Miami picks and predictions

Check back on Wednesday for our full LIV Golf Miami betting card!

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LIV Golf recent winners and odds history

Let's take a look at some recent LIV Golf winners and their closing odds to win:

Event Golfer Closing odds
Hong Kong (March 2024) Abraham Ancer +3,500
Jeddah (March 2024) Joaquin Niemann (2) +1,000
Las Vegas (February 2024) Dustin Johnson +1,600
Mayakoba (February 2024) Joaquin Niemann +1,400
Jeddah (October 2023) Brooks Koepka (3) +1,600
Chicago (September 2023) Bryson DeChambeau (2) +1,100
Bedminster (August 2023) Cameron Smith (3) +1,000
Greenbrier (August 2023) Bryson DeChambeau +1,400
London (July 2023) Cameron Smith (2) +900
Andalucia (July 2023) Talor Gooch (3) +1,600
Washington (May 2023) Harold Varner III +2,000
Tulsa (May 2023) Dustin Johnson (2) +1,200
Singapore (April 2023) Talor Gooch (2) +1,600
Adelaide (April 2023) Talor Gooch +2,500
Orlando (April 2023) Brooks Koepka (2) +4,000
Tucson (March 2023) Danny Lee +8,000
Mayakoba (Feb. 2023) Charles Howell III +4,000

Odds courtesy of GolfOdds.

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