Scottie Scheffler won for the first time since January — this time by eight strokes — in the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. That has the No. 1 golfer in the world and the FedEx Cup Standings as the heavy favorite in the BMW Championship odds for this week's PGA Tour golf event at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis.
This week's tournament runs from Thursday through Sunday. Scheffler tops the 50-man field with a 24% win probability by the golf odds at Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps.
Stay tuned to this page throughout the week, as we'll update it each day with our expert's best golf picks.
⛳ BMW Championship: Key takeaways
- Best early bet: Viktor Hovland to win (3.7%) – The former FedEx Cup champion finished T-19 last week after struggling over the weekend; he's still a strong fit for Bellerive with 1.11 SG: approach and confident putting over his last 16 rounds, while blending distance and accuracy off the tee
- Best early value: Wyndham Clark (3.1%) — Averaging a field-best 1.10 strokes gained: putting across his last 16 measured rounds, pairing nicely with 0.61 SG: tee-to-green and well above-average driving distance
- Course: Bellerive Country Club is a 7,448-yard par 70 that hosted the BMW Championship only in 2008 (Camilo Villegas) but more recently hosted the 2018 PGA Championship (Brooks Koepka); the par-4s play long and the course is centered around a creek that's in play on nine holes
- Weather: The early forecast for Bellerive Country Club throughout the tournament has temperatures ranging from 82 to 86 degrees; there's a strong chance of showers and a thunderstorm on Thursday before clear weather the rest of the week
- Cut line: The BMW Championship is a no-cut playoff event, and all 50 players will play all four tournament rounds
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📊 BMW Championship odds
The BMW Championship runs at Bellerive Country Club from Thursday, Aug. 20, through Sunday, Aug. 23. Check out the full BMW Championship field.
| Golfer |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 24% |
| Rory McIlroy | 6% |
| Sam Burns | 5.7% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 5.1% |
| Xander Schauffele | 4.8% |
| Cameron Young | 4.6% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 4.3% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 3.9% |
| Viktor Hovland | 3.7% |
| Chris Gotterup | 3.3% |
| Wyndham Clark | 3.1% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
As usual, but especially this week, I recommend getting to the PGA Tour golf odds early. There are only two events left this season, and this market has already drawn well over $1 million in trading volume as of Monday morning.
Increased action will come in Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, and Scottie Scheffler will continue to drive the lion's share of activity off of a dominant eight-stroke victory. I consider his early 24% win probability at Kalshi to represent value, and can see him trading around 30% by Thursday's first tee times.
🚩 Course breakdown: Bellerive Country Club
- 7,448-yard Par 70 with doglegs helping to negate the advantages of the longer hitters, and water in play on 11 holes
- Large, undulating Bentgrass greens — posing a stark contrast to last week's venue
- Minimal course history for the 2026 BMW Championship field, with this venue last hosting the 2018 PGA Championship and the 2008 BMW Championship before that
The second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs sees a very different course in play than what was used last week.
The greens are much larger and more complex, and feature Bentgrass surfaces. Water remains a principal hazard on over half the holes.
The Rees Jones redesign features long par 4s, topping out at 519 yards. The length doesn't necessarily favor the longer hitters in the field, as doglegs and fairway bunkers force thought-out positioning off the tee.
One of the most important things to consider is the lack of relevant course history for the 50-man field. Bellerive Country Club last hosted the PGA Tour for the 2018 PGA Championship.
Players to watch:
- Justin Thomas: Thomas (T-6, -10) was the top finisher in the 2018 PGA Championship that's in this week's field; he has a 1.9% chance to win by the BMW Championship odds at Kalshi
- Wyndham Clark: This year's U.S. Open champion is the best putter in the BMW Championship field across everyone's last 16 measured rounds (1.10 strokes gained: putting per round)
- Sam Burns: Burns was featured here last week. He backed that up, and is again a strong course fit after gaining 1.14 strokes per round with his putter and 1.44 strokes on approach last week
🔢 Key stats & player profiles to target
- True strokes gained off-the-tee
- Strokes gained: putting (Bentgrass)
- Adjusted scoring average, Par 4 scoring
- Bogey avoidance
- Proximity from 150-175 Yards
Players to watch:
- Si Woo Kim: PGA Tour leader in proximity from 150-175 yards this season and last week's (distant) runner-up to Scottie Scheffler; he's also second in par-4 scoring average
- Wyndham Clark: There's never anything wrong with simply backing the best — and hottest — putter in the field; Clark fits that bill while ranking 17th or better in par-4 scoring and proximity from 150-175 yards
📺 How to watch the BMW Championship & tee times
How to watch:
- Thursday-Friday: 9 a.m. - 3 p.m. ET (ESPN+) and 2-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
- Saturday: 8:15 a.m. - noon ET (ESPN+), noon-2 p.m. ET (Golf Channel) and 2-5 p.m. ET (CBS)
- Sunday: 8:15-11 a.m. ET (ESPN+), noon-2 p.m. ET (Golf Channel) and 2-5 p.m. ET (CBS)
Tee times:
- Check back soon!
❓ BMW Championship betting FAQ
Who is the 2026 BMW Championship favorite?
Scottie Scheffler is a 24% favorite at Kalshi after winning last week's FedEx St. Jude Championship.
When is the 2026 BMW Championship?
The 2026 BMW Championship will be played from Thursday, Aug. 20 to Sunday, Aug. 23.
Where will the 2026 BMW Championship be played?
The 2026 BMW Championship will be played at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis.
Who won the BMW Championship last year?
Scottie Scheffler won the 2025 BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, MD. He won by two strokes (Robert MacIntyre) with a 72-hole score of -15.
What are BMW Championship FRL markets?
First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which golfers will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament.
How do BMW Championship matchup picks work?
When betting on BMW Championship matchups, you're selecting which golfer will score better between the two golfers listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.
What is the BMW Championship cut line?
The BMW Championship is a no-cut playoff event, and all 50 players will play all four tournament rounds.
Are BMW Championship odds the same across all sportsbooks?
You'll see slight to significant variations in odds across sportsbooks and prediction markets for the BMW Championship; it's always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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