My BMW Championship predictions this week have the difficult task of fading Scottie Scheffler, the overwhelming favorite with a 24% win probability by the golf odds at Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps, after his 8-stroke victory in the first leg of the 2026 FedEx Cup Playoffs.
He leads Rory McIlroy (5.5%), Xander Schauffele (5.3%), and Ludvig Aberg (5.1%).
Scottie Scheffler won for the first time since January, and that helped cement the No. 1 golfer in the world and the FedEx Cup Standings as the heavy favorite in the BMW Championship odds at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis.
This week's tournament runs from Thursday through Sunday. Let's dive into our golf picks, including outright winners and long shots.
- UPDATE: Added BMW Championship long-shot predictions
⛳ BMW Championship: Key takeaways
- Best early bet: Viktor Hovland to win (2.7%) – The former FedEx Cup champion finished T-19 last week after struggling over the weekend; he's still a strong fit for Bellerive with 1.11 SG: approach and confident putting over his last 16 rounds, while blending distance and accuracy off the tee
- Best early value: Wyndham Clark (2.5%) — Averaging a field-best 1.10 strokes gained: putting across his last 16 measured rounds, pairing nicely with 0.61 SG: tee-to-green and well above-average driving distance
- Course: Bellerive Country Club is a 7,448-yard par 70 that hosted the BMW Championship only in 2008 (Camilo Villegas) but more recently hosted the 2018 PGA Championship (Brooks Koepka); the par-4s play long and the course is centered around a creek that's in play on nine holes
- Weather: The weather has cleared up for the tournament days, with rain and thunderstorms expected overnight on Wednesday into Thursday morning; there's only a partial chance of a stray thunderstorm on Saturday and we otherwise should have hot, sunny weather in St. Louis
- Cut line: The BMW Championship is a no-cut playoff event, and all 50 players will play all four tournament rounds
- Trading volume: The outright winner market for the BMW Championship has drawn over $7.2 million in trading volume at Kalshi as of Tuesday morning
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📇 BMW Championship top picks
| Golfer |  Probabillity |
|---|---|
| Si Woo Kim to win | 3.1% |
| Wyndham Clark to win | 2.5% |
| Russell Henley to win | 1.4% |
| Maverick McNealy to win | 1.4% |
| Jacob Bridgeman to win | 0.9% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
📊 BMW Championship odds
The BMW Championship runs at Bellerive Country Club from Thursday, Aug. 20, through Sunday, Aug. 23. Check out the full BMW Championship field.
| Golfer | Probability |
|---|---|
 Scottie Scheffler |
24% |
 Rory McIlroy |
5.5% |
 Xander Schauffele |
5.3% |
 Ludvig Aberg |
5.1% |
 Cameron Young |
4.3% |
 Sam Burns |
4.1% |
 Tommy Fleetwood |
3.8% |
 Matt Fitzpatrick |
3.3% |
 Si Woo Kim |
3.1% |
 Chris Gotterup |
2.9% |
 Hideki Matsuyama |
2.7% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
As usual, but especially this week, I recommend getting to the PGA Tour golf odds early. There are only two events left this season, and trading volume will continue to pick up through Thursday morning.
Increased action will come in Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, and Scottie Scheffler will continue to drive the lion's share of activity off of a dominant eight-stroke victory. I consider his early 24% win probability at Kalshi to represent value, and can see him trading around 30% by Thursday's first tee times.
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💰 BMW Championship picks: Winners to bet
Pick 1: Si Woo Kim (3.4%)
Si Woo Kim is my top pick to win the BMW Championship, and the trading action seems to be backing me up. Kim's win probability has risen to 3.4% since Monday.
Last week's runner-up in the FedEx St. Jude Championship averaged 2.21 strokes gained tee-to-green for the tournament. He lost strokes on and around the greens, but the larger putting surfaces and Bentgrass greens should see improved performance in St. Louis.
He excels from this week's key approach distance of 150-175 yards, and he's a par-4 specialist with a 3.95 scoring average on such holes this season.
Pick 2: Wyndham Clark (2.8%)
Wyndham Clark — the 2026 U.S. Open champion — is one of the best putters in this field and in the world. He's averaged 0.86 strokes gained: putting across his last 16 rounds, and that includes a slightly worse-than-average performance last week en route to a T-5 finish in Memphis.
He's also strong on par 4s and on shots from 150-175 yards out from the green. There's value in this lower win probability with the chance for the putter to carry him to victory.
Sleeper pick to win: Russell Henley
1.4% probability at Kalshi
Russell Henley is the hottest putter in this week's 50-man field. He has averaged 1.34 true strokes gained: putting per round across his last 16 rounds. That will serve him very well with Bellerive's accessible but expansive greens.
Bellerive, while long, doesn't necessarily favor driving distance. Accuracy and positioning can be just as valuable to success. Henley ranks seventh or better in par-4 scoring (3.96) and proximity from 150-175 yards (25-foot-2).
Sleeper pick to win: Maverick McNealy
1.4% probability at Kalshi
Maverick McNealy was fifth in last week's field with 1.27 true strokes gained: putting for the tournament. That was really the only bright spot in his game en route to a T-19 finish, but he managed to show some improvement with his approach play.
Don't pay too much attention to McNealy's third-place result in last year's BMW Championship, as that was at a different course. However, it shows he can play well at this time of year and in these condensed fields under added playoff pressure.
Sleeper pick to win: Jacob Bridgeman
0.9% probability at Kalshi
This is my favorite BMW Championship sleeper pick, and we're getting the longest odds for it.
Jacob Bridgeman is one of the breakout players of the year. He enters the second leg of the playoffs at No. 31 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) and had made seven straight cuts before a T-30 in last week's no-cut event.
Though a slightly worse putter than our other two long-shot predictions above, Bridgeman ranked third in last week's field in SG: putting. He's second for the season in par-4 scoring and 10th in proximity from this week's key distance.
🚩 Course breakdown: Bellerive Country Club
- 7,448-yard Par 70 with doglegs helping to negate the advantages of the longer hitters, and water in play on 11 holes
- Large, undulating Bentgrass greens — posing a stark contrast to last week's venue
- Minimal course history for the 2026 BMW Championship field, with this venue last hosting the 2018 PGA Championship and the 2008 BMW Championship before that
The second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs sees a very different course in play than what was used last week.
The greens are much larger and more complex, and feature Bentgrass surfaces. Water remains a principal hazard on over half the holes.
The Rees Jones redesign features long par 4s, topping out at 519 yards. The length doesn't necessarily favor the longer hitters in the field, as doglegs and fairway bunkers force thought-out positioning off the tee.
One of the most important things to consider is the lack of relevant course history for the 50-man field. Bellerive Country Club last hosted the PGA Tour for the 2018 PGA Championship.
Players to watch:
- Justin Thomas: Thomas (T-6, -10) was the top finisher in the 2018 PGA Championship that's in this week's field; he has a 1.9% chance to win by the BMW Championship odds at Kalshi
- Wyndham Clark: This year's U.S. Open champion is the best putter in the BMW Championship field across everyone's last 16 measured rounds (1.10 strokes gained: putting per round)
- Sam Burns: Burns was featured here last week. He backed that up, and is again a strong course fit after gaining 1.14 strokes per round with his putter and 1.44 strokes on approach last week
🔢 Key stats & player profiles to target
- True strokes gained off-the-tee
- Strokes gained: putting (Bentgrass)
- Adjusted scoring average, Par 4 scoring
- Bogey avoidance
- Proximity from 150-175 Yards
Players to watch:
- Si Woo Kim: PGA Tour leader in proximity from 150-175 yards this season and last week's (distant) runner-up to Scottie Scheffler; he's also second in par-4 scoring average
- Wyndham Clark: There's never anything wrong with simply backing the best — and hottest — putter in the field; Clark fits that bill while ranking 17th or better in par-4 scoring and proximity from 150-175 yards
📺 How to watch the BMW Championship & tee times
How to watch:
- Thursday-Friday: 10 a.m. - 4 p.m. ET (ESPN+) and 3-7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
- Saturday: 9:15 a.m. - 1 p.m. ET (ESPN+), 1-3 p.m. ET (Golf Channel) and 3-6 p.m. ET (CBS)
- Sunday: 9:15 a.m. - noon ET (ESPN+), 1-3 p.m. ET (Golf Channel) and 3-6 p.m. ET (CBS)
Tee times:
BMW Championship tee times for Round 1 will begin at 10:03 a.m. ET with Justin Thomas and Sahith Theegala.
Here are some key Round 1 tee times:
- Justin Thomas and Sahith Theegala: 10:03 a.m. ET
- Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Aberg: 10:47 a.m. ET
- Wyndham Clark and Sam Burns: 11:49 a.m. ET
- Cameron Young and Si Woo Kim: 12:07 p.m. ET
- Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele: 1:20 p.m. ET
- Chris Gotterup and Tommy Fleetwood: 2:22 p.m. ET
- Scottie Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick: 2:33 p.m. ET
❓ BMW Championship betting FAQ
Who is the 2026 BMW Championship favorite?
Scottie Scheffler is a 24% favorite at Kalshi after winning last week's FedEx St. Jude Championship.
When is the 2026 BMW Championship?
The 2026 BMW Championship will be played from Thursday, Aug. 20 to Sunday, Aug. 23.
Where will the 2026 BMW Championship be played?
The 2026 BMW Championship will be played at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis.
Who won the BMW Championship last year?
Scottie Scheffler won the 2025 BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, MD. He won by two strokes (Robert MacIntyre) with a 72-hole score of -15.
What are BMW Championship FRL markets?
First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which golfers will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament.
How do BMW Championship matchup picks work?
When betting on BMW Championship matchups, you're selecting which golfer will score better between the two golfers listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.
What is the BMW Championship cut line?
The BMW Championship is a no-cut playoff event, and all 50 players will play all four tournament rounds.
Are BMW Championship odds the same across all sportsbooks?
You'll see slight to significant variations in odds across sportsbooks and prediction markets for the BMW Championship; it's always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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