Though Scottie Scheffler's 8-stroke victory in the first leg of the 2026 FedEx Cup Playoffs won't instill much confidence in the rest of this week's 50-man field, Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis brings another test.
My BMW Championship long-shot predictions search for three sleeper picks with a better chance to win than what's being suggested by the odds at Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps.
Use these golf picks to complement your BMW Championship predictions this week.
🎯 BMW Championship long-shot predictions
Here are my best BMW Championship sleeper picks for Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis. The second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs runs from Thursday through Sunday.
| Golfer |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Russell Henley to win | 1.4% |
| Maverick McNealy to win | 1.4% |
| Jacob Bridgeman to win | 0.9% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
💤 BMW Championship sleeper picks
Sleeper pick to win: Russell Henley
1.4% probability at Kalshi
Russell Henley is the hottest putter in this week's 50-man field. He's been averaging 1.34 true strokes gained: putting per round across his last 16 rounds. That will serve him very well with Bellerive's accessible but expansive greens.
Bellerive, while long, doesn't necessarily favor driving distance. Accuracy and positioning can be just as valuable to success. Henley ranks seventh or better in par-4 scoring (3.96) and proximity from 150-175 yards (25-foot-2).
The runner-up in last year's Tour Championship (by 72-hole score) is also one of the few in this field with experience at Bellerive. He finished T-50 in the 2018 PGA Championship. I'd take Henley closer to a 2.0% win probability, putting him between Justin Thomas and Jake Knapp by the Kalshi odds.
Bonus pick: First-round leader 1.9%
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS20' and trade $20 on any event contracts to get $35 — including the BMW Championship!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Sleeper pick to win: Maverick McNealy
1.4% probability at Kalshi
Maverick McNealy was fifth in last week's field with 1.27 true strokes gained: putting for the tournament. That was really the only bright spot in his game en route to a T-19 finish, but he managed to show some improvement with his approach play.
Don't pay too much attention to McNealy's third-place result in last year's BMW Championship, as that was at a different course. However, it shows he can play well at this time of the year and in these condensed fields under added playoff pressure.
I'd play McNealy up to a 1.9% win probability, matching Jake Knapp.
Bonus pick: Top-20 finish 45%
Sleeper pick to win: Jacob Bridgeman
0.9% probability at Kalshi
This is my favorite BMW Championship sleeper pick, and we're getting the longest odds for it.
Jacob Bridgeman is one of the breakout players of the year. He enters the second leg of the playoffs at No. 31 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) and had made seven straight cuts before a T-30 in last week's no-cut event.
Though a slightly worse putter than our other two long-shot predictions above, Bridgeman ranked third in last week's field in SG: putting. He's second for the season in par-4 scoring and 10th in proximity from this week's key distance.
I like Bridgeman's chances to win more than McNealy, and I'll be sure to back him for a top-10 finish at a 15% chance.
Bonus pick: Top-10 finish 15%
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
