Posted:
#351
So far I have ONE play I'm ready to qualify, if the line holds and/or drops anymore. Denver.
Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101
Posted:
#352
How did you do last night? Your picks and your system blows. Nice pick on Memphis, and nice "lucky" win on Utah last night to avoid a 0-4 night. Your system will go busto soon enough... just watch. Buster? Is that your way of saying "Joe Public"? That's cute.
Sorry Czech... It will take more than 60% winners to be successful. If you think that watching line movements all day long will help you pick winners, you're so full of it. This isn't Nasdaq dude...
Posted:
#355
We welcome all positive members of Covers that are interested in discussing how to bring down the books. Haters that just want to talk shit are not welcome, because it's counter-productive.
Dude, I can't for the life of me understand Vision. If you think sports betting is so futile then 1) why are you on Covers 2) why are you spending so much time analyzing posts in this thread and 3) why are you talking smack about the one thread that's actually devoted to sharing good information?
Most people that can produce winners act secretive, like they can't share the info otherwise it won't work anymore. I've shared what I have though, and it will always work because there will always be busters out there that make it work.
Posted:
#357
Hey Czech. I like what your your doing starting this thread collecting everyones thoughts to make money together. Although reverse line movement has always been a indicator i like your rules. I think we need to make a little more stricter. No more guessing whether .5pt or 1pt with certain % is a play or not. Or thinking Utah over was the play and turned out it was not system. I dont care if hits or not, just wanna be sure its system. Here are the rules to add.
1)55%-60% we need 1 pt movement, 60-70 we only need half a pt. And 70% and up and it doesn't move, we go against the 70%. Dont use covers, no sharps bet here. We pick 4 books, 2 online and 2 Vegas. And we average the 4 to get our %. We can do the same for line movement.
2) If the line jumps back the other way its a NO play. Vegas goal is to get equal money on both sides so they can not care about who wins and collect juice(5% of all money bet). So when a line moves against the % more ppl on the high % but the avg amount of bet higher on other side(Sharps) So when the line jumps back its not becuz all the busters are on that side its because Sharps jumped on that side late, and they now want more busters to go on the side we thought was the right side. The busters will think they got their pt back. And Vegas doesn't care about showing their hand with reverse line movement becuz most busters dont follow just come home from work and think their getting extra pts. But any jump back away from our side should not qualify.
3) We need to get 4 ppl to follow our 4 designated books for % and line movement and post them in the thread. We can then come up with the avg line movement and % and see if its a play.
what you think?
1)55%-60% we need 1 pt movement, 60-70 we only need half a pt. And 70% and up and it doesn't move, we go against the 70%. Dont use covers, no sharps bet here. We pick 4 books, 2 online and 2 Vegas. And we average the 4 to get our %. We can do the same for line movement.
2) If the line jumps back the other way its a NO play. Vegas goal is to get equal money on both sides so they can not care about who wins and collect juice(5% of all money bet). So when a line moves against the % more ppl on the high % but the avg amount of bet higher on other side(Sharps) So when the line jumps back its not becuz all the busters are on that side its because Sharps jumped on that side late, and they now want more busters to go on the side we thought was the right side. The busters will think they got their pt back. And Vegas doesn't care about showing their hand with reverse line movement becuz most busters dont follow just come home from work and think their getting extra pts. But any jump back away from our side should not qualify.
3) We need to get 4 ppl to follow our 4 designated books for % and line movement and post them in the thread. We can then come up with the avg line movement and % and see if its a play.
what you think?
Posted:
#359
Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:
We welcome all positive members of Covers that are interested in discussing how to bring down the books. Haters that just want to talk shit are not welcome, because it's counter-productive.
We welcome all positive members of Covers that are interested in discussing how to bring down the books. Haters that just want to talk shit are not welcome, because it's counter-productive.
Dude, I can't for the life of me understand Vision. If you think sports betting is so futile then 1) why are you on Covers 2) why are you spending so much time analyzing posts in this thread and 3) why are you talking smack about the one thread that's actually devoted to sharing good information?
Most people that can produce winners act secretive, like they can't share the info otherwise it won't work anymore. I've shared what I have though, and it will always work because there will always be busters out there that make it work.
Sounds like Vision isn't saying that sports betting is futile, merely more like your method of sports betting is futile. At least, that's how I read it
Posted:
#360
Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:
We welcome all positive members of Covers that are interested in discussing how to bring down the books. Haters that just want to talk shit are not welcome, because it's counter-productive.
We welcome all positive members of Covers that are interested in discussing how to bring down the books. Haters that just want to talk shit are not welcome, because it's counter-productive.
Dude, I can't for the life of me understand Vision. If you think sports betting is so futile then 1) why are you on Covers 2) why are you spending so much time analyzing posts in this thread and 3) why are you talking smack about the one thread that's actually devoted to sharing good information?
Most people that can produce winners act secretive, like they can't share the info otherwise it won't work anymore. I've shared what I have though, and it will always work because there will always be busters out there that make it work.
Don't flatter yourself here Mr. Czech, your thread is not the only one on the block with good information.
Posted:
#361
Hey Geno, great contribution man! See this is a work in progress and have shared what I have but yu guys can always take it and work it better.
I like the idea of your first rule and was thinking along the same lines. I may tweak the percentages some but you're on the right track.
Haven't delved into the second one yet but thanks for posting and stick around cuz we're onto something big here.
I like the idea of your first rule and was thinking along the same lines. I may tweak the percentages some but you're on the right track.
Haven't delved into the second one yet but thanks for posting and stick around cuz we're onto something big here.
Posted:
#367
Czech -- I have a question about your system.
Your Rule #2 involves "Opposing the Busters", which means basically fading the public and popular plays. On Page 1 you reference looking at certain sides and totals and what percentage of the public is on what side/total as influencing your plays. My question to you: what if the numbers you are relying upon to determine public betting percentages are incorrect? What happens then?
Your Rule #2 involves "Opposing the Busters", which means basically fading the public and popular plays. On Page 1 you reference looking at certain sides and totals and what percentage of the public is on what side/total as influencing your plays. My question to you: what if the numbers you are relying upon to determine public betting percentages are incorrect? What happens then?
Posted:
#370
Quote Originally Posted by chillywilly8:
You guys make it sound like hitting 60% over a one year period without any 6-8 game losing streaks is easy. LMFAO.
You guys make it sound like hitting 60% over a one year period without any 6-8 game losing streaks is easy. LMFAO.
I just wasted 20 minutes of my life reading this pointless thread. And another 10 minutes signing up for this site. This site just has a bunch of losers grouped together without any insightful information about individual games.
All the successful cappers sell their picks and systems. You get exactly what you pay for. This site sucks.
This is a flat out, absolute 100% lie.
Posted:
#371
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:
Czech -- I have a question about your system.
Your Rule #2 involves "Opposing the Busters", which means basically fading the public and popular plays. On Page 1 you reference looking at certain sides and totals and what percentage of the public is on what side/total as influencing your plays. My question to you: what if the numbers you are relying upon to determine public betting percentages are incorrect? What happens then?
Czech -- I have a question about your system.
Your Rule #2 involves "Opposing the Busters", which means basically fading the public and popular plays. On Page 1 you reference looking at certain sides and totals and what percentage of the public is on what side/total as influencing your plays. My question to you: what if the numbers you are relying upon to determine public betting percentages are incorrect? What happens then?
That's not good if that happens kap, which if you read last few pages is why I'm asking other members about the reliability of the sites people suggest we use to look at these numbers.
When I first started using this method to pick games, I just used Covers consensus numbers. I've heard from many people that this doesn't mean anything, since it's not real money, but I disagree, because it worked very consistently.
I don't know for sure, but I think the Covers consensus numbers actually give us a pretty good idea of what the "public" is on. For example, me.
Dude, I'm no pro handicapper. My whole system is based on trying to follow sharp plays. You will never hear me talk about weather, refs, injuries, etc etc. My reasoning for this is because I know Vegas and sharps and even busters are aware of all this info before I am, and adjust accordingly.
I don't need to understand all of that stuff that traditional "cappers" use, and that so many think is so important. If you are a sharp and can cap your own games at 60% before seeing any movement then that's awesome, but I can't do that.
I'm admitting it right here: I am a buster and very new to sports betting. When I go on Covers contests I click away, and then later I look at the line action, etc and make my bets. You know what's funny is sometimes later I'll check the contests and see I got creamed and I'm like, "I picked that?"
I bet against what I pick on contests ALL THE TIME. Literally man it happens very often. But my point is most busters don't do this, they bet what they like and that's that. So I think the contests show us, maybe not exactly, but a pretty good idea of what the "public" likes.
The nice thing is none of the Covers data is skewed by $, it's just how many people like this side vs that side. It's all relative and those numbers have always worked just fine for me.
I'm fully aware that this is going to sound ridiculous to some people, but it has worked so far. If you think it would be better to use your favorite $ % site, then try it out and tell me how it works. As for me I'll keep what I know works for me, until someone shows me something better.
Posted:
#374
Guys don't let busters like Vision and Co. bother you. I'm quick to get upset by them also, but it's pointless.
They hate for no reason, and when we win they hate even more. I know when we heat up we won't hear from them for a while, and then a bad day will come and they will miraculously appear.
This doesn't happen for no reason, it's cuz they're checking every day and waiting and then finally the bad day comes and it's the moment they've been waiting for and they pounce.
Pretty pathetic really but it is what it is
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