Posted:
#401
If nothing else you can stare at my profile pic over and over again, since I post so much lol
Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101
Posted:
#403
Quote Originally Posted by genosteaks05:
Kapono,
Thats why im proposing we pick 4 to 5 sites. 2 Vegas and 2 online and we Avg out the % and line movement on all 4 to come up with our final numbers. I would do it but Im in Italy right now and for some reason can't get to those sites.
I think it would be more efficient and we would have more success
Kapono,
Thats why im proposing we pick 4 to 5 sites. 2 Vegas and 2 online and we Avg out the % and line movement on all 4 to come up with our final numbers. I would do it but Im in Italy right now and for some reason can't get to those sites.
I think it would be more efficient and we would have more success
Why would you believe the accuracy of any website for what percentage of bets are coming in on what side? The people who hold that information have zero incentive to publish it to the betting public. Zero.
Posted:
#404
Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:
Holy Shit! Here is a guy who is "a buster and very new to sports betting". So much to learn. Rule number 1: There are no systems! Kap, sounds like you've been around. Surprised you haven't mentioned that fact. That's not good if that happens kap, which if you read last few pages is why I'm asking other members about the reliability of the sites people suggest we use to look at these numbers.
When I first started using this method to pick games, I just used Covers consensus numbers. I've heard from many people that this doesn't mean anything, since it's not real money, but I disagree, because it worked very consistently.
I don't know for sure, but I think the Covers consensus numbers actually give us a pretty good idea of what the "public" is on. For example, me.
Dude, I'm no pro handicapper. My whole system is based on trying to follow sharp plays. You will never hear me talk about weather, refs, injuries, etc etc. My reasoning for this is because I know Vegas and sharps and even busters are aware of all this info before I am, and adjust accordingly.
I don't need to understand all of that stuff that traditional "cappers" use, and that so many think is so important. If you are a sharp and can cap your own games at 60% before seeing any movement then that's awesome, but I can't do that.
I'm admitting it right here: I am a buster and very new to sports betting. When I go on Covers contests I click away, and then later I look at the line action, etc and make my bets. You know what's funny is sometimes later I'll check the contests and see I got creamed and I'm like, "I picked that?"
I bet against what I pick on contests ALL THE TIME. Literally man it happens very often. But my point is most busters don't do this, they bet what they like and that's that. So I think the contests show us, maybe not exactly, but a pretty good idea of what the "public" likes.
The nice thing is none of the Covers data is skewed by $, it's just how many people like this side vs that side. It's all relative and those numbers have always worked just fine for me.
I'm fully aware that this is going to sound ridiculous to some people, but it has worked so far. If you think it would be better to use your favorite $ % site, then try it out and tell me how it works. As for me I'll keep what I know works for me, until someone shows me something better.
Posted:
#406
Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:
How much money are 35,000 views going to make you? The girl had 1,000,000 views!! How is she doing?!
Hey Rod, buster, in the last 3 days we have 35,000 views and counting, almost as much as the Covers Team thread. I'd say this thread is a success so far and we're working on something special here. Don't be a hater dude why don't you try joining in maybe it will help you too.
Posted:
#407
Look at Rod go! Wow what a B. that's right I'm new to sports betting. I'm also a professional card player and gamble for a living. I also have a stock portfolio.
I made it pretty clear that I don't know much about sports themselves, although I'm learning fast. None of that matters though dude. Read the system. It doesn't have ANYTHING TO DO WITH CAPPING! It's all about determining who the sharps are on and following them. How is this so lost on you?
I made it pretty clear that I don't know much about sports themselves, although I'm learning fast. None of that matters though dude. Read the system. It doesn't have ANYTHING TO DO WITH CAPPING! It's all about determining who the sharps are on and following them. How is this so lost on you?
Posted:
#410
And Rod just made a very interesting comment - there are no systems. That's funny Rod cuz I'm pretty sure Vegas uses a "system" to set the lines in the first place. Whether its computer algorithms or something else, there are systems that work in sports and cards and stocks. You just have to figure it out. From what I've seen so far sports as a whole are pretty mathematical and I do believe there is a system that can exploit the human element (betting %, etc) in the line action.
Posted:
#416
Denver is definitely the play-I live out here and Bynam said today. "Closeout games are easy..." I don't always bet based on trash talking but sometimes it is important...I was leaning Denver anyway because this team is not the 90's Bulls anyway and Kobe isn't shooting well and I expect Denver as the whole season to fight hard to the end...
Posted:
#417
Damnit! lol I just came to the computer to post on the Denver game and the line is back to -6.
I still think Denver is sharp and they're adjusting this 1/2 point for the B's on the Lakers, but it doesn't qualify under Rule #1 of the system.
Personal picks tonight:
Atl -1 second half
Chicago -5
Denver +6
System plays - 0
Posted:
#419
Guys we're working on this aspect though, as stated in previous posts, what we need in terms of line movement, based on how skewed the consensus is.
Denver had all the makings of a system play, it dropped to 5.5 even though there's a HUGE majority in the Lakers. One site says 83%, Covers has it like 2/1. I'd say if there was 60% or less then we would need it to hold at 5.5 or less, but with so many this just doesn't seem feasible.
This is arguably a system play even at 6 now, since it went to 5.5 and stayed there until game time. I am not calling it a system play at this point though since it moved back but you be the judge.
I'm betting Denver.
Posted:
#421
Denver was a system play up until it went to 6.
We anticipated this last minute move to 6 though, because over 2-1 are on Lakers, and all the late money for the most part is busters betting the favorite, plus it's the last game on the board.
I still think Denver is the play, although it's just my opinion at this point. No system plays tonight.
I do though think we need to take a better look at the stipulations on last minute line moves. Maybe we can say 1/2 pt moves towards the favorite within 20 minutes of game time don't count, or something like that.
Posted:
#425
Look, here's the most honest I can be. If Denver doesn't cover now, we're gonna say see that's why we disqualified it. But if they win, we're gonna say damn it should have qualified!
Guys, it doesn't qualify pure and simple. I originally created the system during the reg season, and it wasn't for extreme cases like this, where 70% or so is on one side. This is atypical for such skewed numbers. I think according to all of the information we have now, that Denver is the play. But under strict interpretation of the system, it doesn't qualify. That means something is wrong maybe. Maybe the system needs a mod, or maybe we need a separate system for games like this entirely. Idk yet. We can figure it out together.
For the sake of posterity though tonight its not a system play win or lose. I should have done that last night also. The system works wonders the way I already have it, but when you follow all the rules it no-plays a lot of games. Sometimes that's very disappointing but that's the way it goes.
Guys, it doesn't qualify pure and simple. I originally created the system during the reg season, and it wasn't for extreme cases like this, where 70% or so is on one side. This is atypical for such skewed numbers. I think according to all of the information we have now, that Denver is the play. But under strict interpretation of the system, it doesn't qualify. That means something is wrong maybe. Maybe the system needs a mod, or maybe we need a separate system for games like this entirely. Idk yet. We can figure it out together.
For the sake of posterity though tonight its not a system play win or lose. I should have done that last night also. The system works wonders the way I already have it, but when you follow all the rules it no-plays a lot of games. Sometimes that's very disappointing but that's the way it goes.
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