COUNTDOWN

-Huskers name Casey Thompson qb.

-Scott Frost happy saying O-lineman are vomiting 15-20 times a day. Seems Raiola pushing them hard.

-Dublin's Irish Times writes scathing article about Nebraska football and ends with "a thousand welcomes". https://www.klkntv.com/irish-times-sportswriter-calls-huskers-notorious-in-scathing-article/

This! ..... if you find it, let me know.  Struggle with the same thing since he left.

https://www.sharpcollegefootball.com/

Not bad - by Bridge's boy Rob Bowron (too much lip smackin' btw ha) - or anybody that buys that BETA stat program - Warren Sharp has it too

Vomiting 15-20X!?  - awright man that's like some 1940 stuff ....

@bookieassassin

 no kidding...like how in the fugg do the kids stand for that. if they are puking all day before and after practice, when do they have time to shoot their N.I.L. commercials ?

or bang chicks?

haha - man they used to work the hell out of us (70's) - cant recall many workouts where multiple guys threw up....only in college for guys that missed class - you met a coach at the stadium at 5am / ran until you puked

@bookieassassin

 yup...remember those days vividly for me too during college, which was not that long ago...they called it "one thousand thousands"

1000 stairs

1000 sit ups

repeat...

puke

never miss class again...

@bookieassassin

Yeah Sharp CFB Rob B's previews .. a bit of yapping in there .. 20+++ mins per team is hearty .. but gets to the point quick looking at the model covering the inputs, last year's results and why the projection is where it is .. I think its helpful to hear him talk about what inputs a few times, easy to misinterpret what those are / aren't telling us .. the value w his stuff besides free is its so easy to download his and review it ..  he does a great job putting the updated model out sunday usually before the lines drop and besides the the overall ratings w the high level inputs there's other workbooks w more detailed off / def inputs, also an updated list of game lines for every game of the year even look back lines .. its easy enough to keep track of what the model shows is changing on a team or compare lines to what vegas has ... way easier than copying down Bill C's stuff and idk what others do I make a mess of it using 'text to columns' and just love when he changes up the team names on us lol.. I think that's maybe the most annoying thing besides a total lack of detail what makes up his numbers .. I'll take free, fairly accurate, robust, consistent, timely and easy to work with and just kinda be happy w that ..  

Not familiar w the particular stat program is that something particular others are using? .. I figured it was drive stats and he punches out the beta rank metric however he weights variables and advancetizes.. statistically proven methods only yada yada  .. yeah the beta metric isin't gunna be x-y = spread but that's available in another worksheet .. 

back to football, yeah vomiting all day lol .. "uhhh hey coach there's a hill of red ants down there .. i don't givein a sheet wuts down ther git yer hand on the ground n play you pansy ass cockamimi punk!!!"  -Junction boys

6Days 144Hours 8694Minutes 521,661Seconds till Next Saturday at 12noon 

 It’s even closer since you posted… I got some truly behind the scenes, bananas, grab this under, a dram of Jameson, and dance the jig.  Me cousins on the west coast iRL are telling me the pitch will be trimmed tall to show off the emerald green.  This game could be 7-3 at halftime…Nwestern is here to fight.  Will be a fun Big 10 Kickoff to the season. 

@Bridge1

 Yep looks like BETA RANK is his deal - what he meant was he buys the drive data from Sports Source Analytics

https://www.sportsourceanalytics.com/

Guess he sells BR to various guys - I've seen it a few places, like that Warren Sharp's site

Great stuff btw 

@TD21

 That Rob B's site not be bad...

https://www.sharpcollegefootball.com/

Advanced stats > deep dive

Even has a matchup tool, future lines and matchups etc

But .... where's PACE? - nobody have it anymore?

I've resorted to cfbstats - plays/game more than I wanna admit - or use TOP and # of plays yikes

@bookieassassin

 I drove through Junction a few weeks ago.  Looked around and imagined where the Bear's boys trained way back when.

@bookieassassin

oh man we should go halfs and get that beta data bro .. then we can finally figure out time of possession .. its the combined rosetta stone and holy grail of college football info ..at that point we'll be unstoppable .. wah ha ha ..

Collegefootballdata has drive data sets we can at least do more accruate pace analysis with but the prob its ESPN data which can be really gnarly w missing data, wrong data, duplicates .. couple games were so bad I threw them out .. also got the weird time format that you gotta convert into seconds .. trust me its too big a pain to fix all the nits w the data but I think if you set it up right you could get a fairly accurate pace picture over the course of any particular game .. the prob w pace is it varies dramatically on game situations and other variables .. margin size, length of drive 3nout or longer, close to half or game end .. and things we don't even see in the data, timeouts, runs vs pass plays, in/out of bounds .. penalties can also just eat up a huge amount of time we don't see those .. if we don't have a good pace source this year then im gunna try and get it done quick w that data set this year, fingers xx'd I can just spend 20 mins / week on that piece of crap and at least have a good number of "normal" drives .. 

The good thing about that drive data is there's other stuff in there to maybe glean out .. good to know what the FP and length and time of scoring drives were .. also true number of turnovers or similar big events like TO on downs ST scores, blocked punt/fg's .. also impact of each turnover, like TO at opp 40 yds line much diff than at your own 10 yd line or a pick 6 ... TO margin for each of those is just +1 .. 

CFB Data has a whole discord of stat people drummin up analytics using tryin to be moneyball modelers .. might be worth checking on their board if they're already doing some work on pace and other good stuff maybe can find something good searching on there .. think they shouldn't be too opposed to sharing their work since the data is all scraped n stolen lol .. 

Adding

East Carolina +10'

Fading NC St  / HC Doeren and their huge expectations....he typically doesn't take these non-conference games too seriously - plus their 'season' really doesn't start until Oct 1 vs Clemson.... Their D will likely win it for them, but EC should play them tough.

@alopez14325

 Hard to believe 5 or 6 redshirt freshmen are game changers.Guess we will see on the field.

SMiss +2' 1H

Cheesy I know - I'm not sure they're ready to win yet? - and the 3 probably not enough to fool with - but huge difference in returning production (#7 vs #121) - strong starters - Liberty prone to slow starts on the road. They get their (top recruit) QB back - will play their azz off for sure / Flames might be looking to UAB a bit? Just a small hunch / dart at 0.25 - will add ML smaller - if 1H loses I'll play them 2H ( I like SMiss ha)

@mws

 There's a marker there somewhere - you shoulda got out of that S-class - and ran until you puked, in tribute.....

That's what Texas, AND the Dallas Cowboys need to do - maybe hire Bobby Knight to run the camp - eliminate that country club vibe - permanently ha 

@bookieassassin

 On MSU as well. Grabbed them at 17 earlier this summer.  Tucker 3-0-1 in OOC games last year ATS.  Only Akron on deck.  Should be a 45-14 type

@bookieassassin

 If you remember, Stucky used to post here.  He is quite good at CBB, but essentially a coin flip at CFB.  Wilson is a bit better on CFB, but as you said, it's more for the info itself vs. just tailing them

in Mel we trust!  Outstanding motivator and HC, I agree blow out city. 

@bookieassassin

 TREMENDO!!! post #116 and mich st. -20... right with you, SIR, as always!! e,car + 10 now available but I shall wait to get the extra point!!! 

21 hours - 48 minutes- 40 sec .............

You boys know what to do ........

  >> start drinking EARLY - set up all the TV's / laptops, etc so you can watch multiple games - run off all the damn women and kids, with specific instructions not to return until about midnight at the earliest ..... or the retribution will be swift and terrible.....

Added NW small - this is a dart / hunch that they bounce back (as stated earlier). They will be the (much) better coached team for sure - should be more FOCUSED as well - seems like a bad spot for the Huskers, who destroyed NW last year.

WEEK 0/1

1 unit or more

Sparty -19
-----------

0.75 or so

Penn St -3
Terps -21
ECaro +10'

-----------

0.50 or less

Fla St +3
Ducks +10 1H
NW/Neb 1H under 24'
NW +13'*

* at MyBookie - really aggressive lines - 2H lines are already up ffs ....as well as props / 1H / Qtrs. I'll put a bit at 13', and wait to see if it it hits 14  .....wouldn't surprise me to see a late rush on Nebraska at kick-off 

Seems like a good group of knowledgeable guys this year - BUT STILL ha

   $$  are there mistakes made by the oddsmakers? YOU BET

But when do they (usually) occur? WHEN THEY OPEN.  THINK ABOUT IT.  Really sharp computers/AI set the lines - then fine tuned by guys that really know what they're doing (azz literally depends on it) - THEN whittled down by guys that ONLY DO THIS FOR A LIVING. THEN millions of others fine tune it further. THEN YOU BET (usually). SO > the fact that Hawaii and Nevada are starting over essentially, and Wyoming sux IS ALREADY FACTORED INTO THE LINE FFS !!!!  Vandy might still beat Hawaii 45-0 sure - they might also get their azz beat. However - if you actually believe that oddsmakers are POOF! ... now in the charity business, LOAD UP - just don't encourage others to do so. If you do be advised the ol' BA might come in with an internet sledge hammer and happily dispose of your silly azz, while the 9th plays at maximum volume (sorry Clockwork Orange reference).

I'll have a few more late next week - along with WEEK 2 lines, maybe Friday at the latest..........        

forgot (0.25)

S Miss 1H +2'