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Brackson13's Streak

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Posted: #1451
Quote Originally Posted by berrydingle:

He got fked because that Portland pick was the right pick..  Too bad for inclement weather. :\ Still can't believe Bulls won ML last night. SMH!
I agree with Portland pick. and unfortunately bad weather.
 
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Posted: #1452
Nice run.... congrats.
 
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Posted: #1453
Quote Originally Posted by JimmyDrizzl:

Whatever,....However, He probably should have gotten the $25k that he was owed from Covers...Flown to Vegas...Cashed the check and put the whole thing on the opposite...He comes out with either $50k or $75k guranteed...Whatever again...his decision.................

Anyways...I'm sticking with him for a little while longer...Took Atl tonight....Lets see what happens.
.            It doesn't work like that.It takes 6-8 weeks to get your prize sometimes longer.
 
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Posted: #1454
Congrats on your GREAT run!!! WOW is the only word that comes into play!  24 straight AND you had friggin Portland which looked like a LOCK! Then pstpnd...that's fate my friend! 25k you should be pretty PROUD! Now Re Fuel and I'll be watching you climb to the top again I'm sure! 12 was my best... Not easy to pull off what you did ! Congrats again! 
 
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Posted: #1455

Another Streak Bites the Dust.  Denver beats New Orleans, The team with the Stupidest Nickname in Pro Sports

 
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Posted: #1456
Quote Originally Posted by Yankee_Nut:

Another Streak Bites the Dust.  Denver beats New Orleans, The team with the Stupidest Nickname in Pro Sports

The January party isn't over yet. We've one more climbing up the charts Vikings53098 is at 15. He's a fellow Vikings fan like myself so I know he's a good man. Let's wait and see what happens with his next pick. 
 
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Posted: #1457
brackson13 from 11/30 to 12/20 you lost 12 in a row.  What, if anything, do you believe you were you doing wrong to lose so many, and what, if anything, did you change to go on the long winning streak?
 
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Posted: #1458
The results of the Wednesday, 1/28 NBA games are just one example of how extremely difficult it is to not only pick the winning team but additionally to cover spreads.  Yesterday there were 11 games with 5 of them won by underdogs....Additionally 2 of the 6 games won by favorites were covered by the underdogs...only 4 of the 11 favorites won and covered and those were by very small margins except Toronto who covered by 11.5...you have to be a genius and walking around with a four leaf clover in your pocket to get to 10 in a row (PICKING ON A DAILY BASIS) much less 24....which makes it even that much more unlikely and that much more impressive...so many variables to overcome to get a streak up to 24 but to do it playing every day is absolutely incredible...Thanks for the entertainment! And once again thanks for being such a classy guy...You are no ordinary (big bad) Joe!
 
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Posted: #1459
Quote Originally Posted by BigBadJoe:

The results of the Wednesday, 1/28 NBA games are just one example of how extremely difficult it is to not only pick the winning team but additionally to cover spreads.  Yesterday there were 11 games with 5 of them won by underdogs....Additionally 2 of the 6 games won by favorites were covered by the underdogs...only 4 of the 11 favorites won and covered and those were by very small margins except Toronto who covered by 11.5...you have to be a genius and walking around with a four leaf clover in your pocket to get to 10 in a row (PICKING ON A DAILY BASIS) much less 24....which makes it even that much more unlikely and that much more impressive...so many variables to overcome to get a streak up to 24 but to do it playing every day is absolutely incredible...Thanks for the entertainment! And once again thanks for being such a classy guy...You are no ordinary (big bad) Joe!

All the Haters on Covers need to frame your post. Very well said. Thank you. 
 
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Posted: #1460
https://youtu.be/VLb465zwQVU

brackson13's free pick video link
 
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Posted: #1461

Ok, I new to the gambling lingo. What is hedging?

In Brackson13's last bet, if he would've have hedged like some are saying he should've, what would he have actually done?   

 
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Posted: #1462
Quote Originally Posted by rr2911:

Ok, I new to the gambling lingo. What is hedging?

In Brackson13's last bet, if he would've have hedged like some are saying he should've, what would he have actually done?   


Hedging is a financial term. It essentially means betting on something that would otherwise cause harm to you so that your losses are smaller if that event does, in fact, occur. For instance, my pick for the $100k was golden st -9.5. Since i was already guaranteed $25k, hedging would have meant betting around $30k on the other side, chicago +9.5 or better. This way, if i am correct and golden st wins by double digits, i lose the $30k hedge, but i get an extra $75k for winning my 25th pick in a row. If i lose the pick, i don't get the extra $75k, but i win the $30k wager on the other side, so i still make significantly more than just the $25k i've already won. It's a sound financial decision, but a logistical nightmare for someone in my position, and i also didn't agree with it on principle for a couple of reasons. If you're in the same position one day, please consider it as an option. 
 
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Posted: #1463
Quote Originally Posted by smoothd20:


It's also been a few years since you started that Smoothd is jinx chant too. LOL You owe me a Beer my man because the floodgates have opened. It's becoming a Conga line to the money and Heart222 is next! 
LOL..............He (b13) is 0 for 3 since you stepped on my post and where's Heart222, oh that's right, you cursed him too.
 
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Posted: #1464
[Quote: Originally Posted by brackson13]

Hedging is a financial term. It essentially means betting on something that would otherwise cause harm to you so that your losses are smaller if that event does, in fact, occur. For instance, my pick for the $100k was golden st -9.5. Since i was already guaranteed $25k, hedging would have meant betting around $30k on the other side, chicago +9.5 or better. This way, if i am correct and golden st wins by double digits, i lose the $30k hedge, but i get an extra $75k for winning my 25th pick in a row. If i lose the pick, i don't get the extra $75k, but i win the $30k wager on the other side, so i still make significantly more than just the $25k i've already won. It's a sound financial decision, but a logistical nightmare for someone in my position, and i also didn't agree with it on principle for a couple of reasons. If you're in the same position one day, please consider it as an option. 

Very well stated Mr. Brackson!!! You have great financial intelligence.
Money Management and discipline is the key to success in sports investing
 
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Posted: #1465
I've only just joined Covers, but I followed Brackson's chance to win the $100k with great interest, rooting against my home town Bulls for him to come out victorious. Didn't happen, but he's proven to be a first-class guy and everyone who knocks his decision not to hedge can go pound rocks. He'll remain a legend on Covers for years to come and he deserves it.

So this post is about hedging the 25th bet if anyone ELSE was in the same position as Brackson. Just a hypothetical discussion, but I haven't seen it logically discussed in the past several pages of posts. 

As many people have said, hedging is usually a smart move in a big-money situation like this. Despite what many others think, every single bet against a major-sport Vegas spread has at least a 45% chance of losing. If you get insanely lucky enough to win 24 such bets in a row, your chances of winning the 25th is still 55% at best (as Brackson painfully learned).

Some people crying out against hedging have said that Brackson (and most other people for that matter) didn't have $25-30k in liquid assets to wager on the opposite side of his bet on the Warriors. But as I understand how Vegas works, I don't understand why you would need a single dime to hedge your wager on your 25th prop.

It would require lock-tight personal identification and potentially some degree of confirmation from Covers.com, but isn't it possible to fly out to Vegas to one of the major sports books and contractually arrange a hedge wager with your potential winnings? A Vegas casino wouldn't take this lightly, but a $25,000 wager happens every day in that town. In Brackson's case, he would've bet $26,500 to win $25,000 on the Bulls +11 (potentially, he could've saved a little money if allowed to bet against the 9.5 spread), secured by a contract that used his $100,000 prize from Covers as collateral.

So if the Warriors had covered, the casino would have won the wager and walked away with $26,500 of Brackson's prize from Covers while Brackson would've won $73,500. If the Bulls had covered Brackson would've won $50,000 ($25k from Covers and $25k from the casino). This simple math is all stuff most of you already know.

But I don't understand why people think Brackson would've needed to come to Vegas with a suitcase full of $100 bills to make the hedge wager. Any major sports book could have accommodated his wager with the Covers cash prize as collateral, and Brackson wouldn't have been risking any of his own money.

There are any number of other wagers Brackson could have made to hedge his 25th win on Covers, including a sweet little $2k bet on the Bulls moneyline, that could have increased his guaranteed profit. He didn't do that, and I defend his right not to do it.

So correct me if I'm wrong, since I've never had the opportunity to ACTUALLY do what I just proposed, but that's the way I understand it. Because despite how good any sports bettor is, Vegas knows that anyone can lose any bet on any given day. And they're always there to accommodate you. 
 
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Posted: #1466
More NBA commentary from the headquarters of Big Bad Joe in the wake of the disappointing outcome of the Bulls Warriors epic OT game that cost our friend an additional 75K.  Wednesday Denver and NY Knicks win outright as underdogs...the most shocking being the Kncks beating OKC.  Fast forward 24 hours and both of those teams lay a big fat OSTRICH size huevo...Denver with only 69 points lose by 30 to Memphis...NYK lose by 21 to Indiana. Then in the nightcap the hapless Lakers beat the heavily favored effing bulls (who cost our friend 75K the other night)!   Just one more reason the streak was so impressive whether by luck or by skill or both.  Seems Brackson's rationale of heavy travel and its affect on legs is pretty damn good logic..especially at this point in the long NBA season   In hindsight which is always much easier all three of these games fit into the category of teams failing to play to potential due to road weary legs or in the case of the Knicks they are just bad and the win over OKC just an anomaly.  But it would've taken big huevos to take Lakers +10 after the bulls just beat the warriors the other night! 
 
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Posted: #1467
https://youtu.be/dD9F4I07mAo

brackson13 free pick videos
 
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Posted: #1468
Quote Originally Posted by Classof78:

LOL..............He (b13) is 0 for 3 since you stepped on my post and where's Heart222, oh that's right, you cursed him too.

Oh so that's the secret you're the real jinx. It's always the quiet ones you have to watch. 
 
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Posted: #1469
Quote Originally Posted by Arkady:

I've only just joined Covers, but I followed Brackson's chance to win the $100k with great interest, rooting against my home town Bulls for him to come out victorious. Didn't happen, but he's proven to be a first-class guy and everyone who knocks his decision not to hedge can go pound rocks. He'll remain a legend on Covers for years to come and he deserves it.

So this post is about hedging the 25th bet if anyone ELSE was in the same position as Brackson. Just a hypothetical discussion, but I haven't seen it logically discussed in the past several pages of posts. 

As many people have said, hedging is usually a smart move in a big-money situation like this. Despite what many others think, every single bet against a major-sport Vegas spread has at least a 45% chance of losing. If you get insanely lucky enough to win 24 such bets in a row, your chances of winning the 25th is still 55% at best (as Brackson painfully learned).

Some people crying out against hedging have said that Brackson (and most other people for that matter) didn't have $25-30k in liquid assets to wager on the opposite side of his bet on the Warriors. But as I understand how Vegas works, I don't understand why you would need a single dime to hedge your wager on your 25th prop.

It would require lock-tight personal identification and potentially some degree of confirmation from Covers.com, but isn't it possible to fly out to Vegas to one of the major sports books and contractually arrange a hedge wager with your potential winnings? A Vegas casino wouldn't take this lightly, but a $25,000 wager happens every day in that town. In Brackson's case, he would've bet $26,500 to win $25,000 on the Bulls +11 (potentially, he could've saved a little money if allowed to bet against the 9.5 spread), secured by a contract that used his $100,000 prize from Covers as collateral.

So if the Warriors had covered, the casino would have won the wager and walked away with $26,500 of Brackson's prize from Covers while Brackson would've won $73,500. If the Bulls had covered Brackson would've won $50,000 ($25k from Covers and $25k from the casino). This simple math is all stuff most of you already know.

But I don't understand why people think Brackson would've needed to come to Vegas with a suitcase full of $100 bills to make the hedge wager. Any major sports book could have accommodated his wager with the Covers cash prize as collateral, and Brackson wouldn't have been risking any of his own money.

There are any number of other wagers Brackson could have made to hedge his 25th win on Covers, including a sweet little $2k bet on the Bulls moneyline, that could have increased his guaranteed profit. He didn't do that, and I defend his right not to do it.

So correct me if I'm wrong, since I've never had the opportunity to ACTUALLY do what I just proposed, but that's the way I understand it. Because despite how good any sports bettor is, Vegas knows that anyone can lose any bet on any given day. And they're always there to accommodate you. 
Although your post is well intentioned it's naive at best. There isn't a Casino on the Planet that is going to accept a wager on your good word or the fact that Covers is going to pay you $25,000. NGH(Not Gonna Happen) If a Pit Boss accepted that bet he would be fired on the spot and that's a guarantee. The only way a Casino would take that bet is if you had what is called a "Marker" That is a line of credit set up by the Casino for players that they have vetted and they know are good for the money because they have access to your checking account.  They simply wont include a third party in that transaction whether it was Covers, Bill Gates or Carlos Slim (richest man in the world) Casinos are a cash now business and they're not taking bets based on funds coming in 6-8 weeks which is about how long it takes Covers to payout. 
 
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Posted: #1470
The Final word on Hedging is that it's a pipe dream and it's a pipe dream that 99% of the people in this country simply can't live. You can just leave it at that. But if you insist on going further. It gets even more complicated with "Investors", Bank limits (try withdrawing 30K from your bank today and see what happens) and as I have written about numerous times the tax issues involved for you or the "Investors" it's simply isn't worth the hassle. 

Now if you have happen to have $30K buried in your back yard than it's a solid plan but other than that. Hedging is a fantasy. I will close with this I've yet to hear of anybody here on Covers or anywhere else who has hedged at least $20K but yet it's all the rage when long streaks happen. So if you're promoting hedging why don't you post a ticket of at least $20K to show us how it's done. Until then I think most reasonable people will conclude that Hedging is a fantasy equal to believing in the Tooth Fairy. 
 
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Posted: #1471
Quote Originally Posted by smoothd20:

Although your post is well intentioned it's naive at best. There isn't a Casino on the Planet that is going to accept a wager on your good word or the fact that Covers is going to pay you $25,000. NGH(Not Gonna Happen) If a Pit Boss accepted that bet he would be fired on the spot and that's a guarantee. The only way a Casino would take that bet is if you had what is called a "Marker" That is a line of credit set up by the Casino for players that they have vetted and they know are good for the money because they have access to your checking account.  They simply wont include a third party in that transaction whether it was Covers, Bill Gates or Carlos Slim (richest man in the world) Casinos are a cash now business and they're not taking bets based on funds coming in 6-8 weeks which is about how long it takes Covers to payout. 

Okay, thanks smoothd20. I thought the casinos would do it but if you say no way in hell I believe you. Like I said, obviously I've never done it before myself, so I wasn't sure, but I thought they would. Surely there must be someone or some way to get a bridge loan based on the Covers payout of $25k with the promise of $100k if the 25th pick won (and therefore lost in the sports book). But perhaps it's much harder than I imagine.
 
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Posted: #1472
Look, I would think most of you could borrow the money for 4-6 weeks and pay a friend or family money 10%-which is well worth it-he still would have netted an extra 25K-he just was worried about the people who followed him but they didn't have this much to lose and they probably made a bunch off him....but he's a good guy for sure, so it is what it is....but no one can tell me hedging doesn't make sense
 
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Posted: #1473
Quote Originally Posted by Arkady:


Okay, thanks smoothd20. I thought the casinos would do it but if you say no way in hell I believe you. Like I said, obviously I've never done it before myself, so I wasn't sure, but I thought they would. Surely there must be someone or some way to get a bridge loan based on the Covers payout of $25k with the promise of $100k if the 25th pick won (and therefore lost in the sports book). But perhaps it's much harder than I imagine.

The whole sticking point to any sort of "hedging" is when Covers takes 8 weeks to send out a check. No 100% guarantee to any casino or potential backers in a hedge scheme that they will absolutely get paid.

As we all know by being sports bettors " anything can happen" Covers bankrupt in 8 weeks and not paying anybody, anything ? Not likely, but it could happen...
 
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Posted: #1474
Brackson13 is close to losing that 1K for most wins now, 1 person has already tied him in wins & another has a chance at tying him tonight, so to guarantee he wins the 1K he needs to win tomorrows pick, that way even if they tie him in wins he'll get the win via the tiebreaker.
 
 
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Posted: #1475
Quote Originally Posted by Trax:

Brackson13 is close to losing that 1K for most wins now, 1 person has already tied him in wins & another has a chance at tying him tonight, so to guarantee he wins the 1K he needs to win tomorrows pick, that way even if they tie him in wins he'll get the win via the tiebreaker.

Yea man, it's been a rough go. I've tried just picking somebody on first glance, and I've tried tailing guys on the site that are red hot. So far, no luck with anything. I think based on the past few days and my December run, it's safe to say I may be the worst sports bettor in the world when I don't spend a few hours a day researching. I am way worse than flipping a coin over the last two months when I don't put in the time.

I am too busy to put in the time again tomorrow, so I will once again either be picking in 30 seconds or tailing someone I like. If I don't win, oh well. I've got $25k already, I'll be thrilled if someone else is able to earn the $1000 for having a great month.
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