So as part of my process in picking leans in every post season in any sport is applying the Game Theory. I learned about this math theory in college many moons ago which is basically a mathematical theory on decision making where the outcome of a decision of a player or a group of a certain game is dependent on others. The game I am referring to this spot is not the per game of the series but the whole game of the league and how league owners position everything to run it as a business but mask it as a form of entertainment. So how do player x act when player y makes a certain decision. Dodgers franchise is the player, the league as the game.
Thesis - Dodgers is tanking the NLCS series to control salary caps for future potential signings and FA acquisitions.
The Collective Bargaining Agreement for the season is about to end on December 1, 2026. This is basically an employer employee agreement between the owners and their players, think of this as the date as teams negotiate payroll budgets to the league. Now you have 3 small market teams in both leagues, their payroll difference against the Dodgers can be the GDP of a small country in Asia. The three small market teams have the following payroll, Guardians $74.5m, Tampa $95.6m, Brewers $146.4m, versus the Dodgers with almost $350m.
Now what does this deadline have to do with the Dodgers and what role do they play for the whole league?
Simply put it this way, if Dodgers will lose, then team owners specifically Dodgers can argue that payroll has nothing to do on a team's performance since a small market team can win it all, they say yes to a slight player salary increase of course but not to a point that the league can impose salary caps or tax aprons. And if they dont agree with anything this could lead to a potential lockout which could affect off season transactions, free agency, and any salary negotiations. If they win then 60-70% of the teams will cry foul to the league about salary caps and salary floor. Dodgers tank the series for a year, then they can control the salary for the next 3-4 seasons or potentially sign players for the next decade at a bargain.
This theory is beneficial for the side of the owners and the league which is likely more to happen in my opinion. Imagine a league where player salaries will be so high, how much will ticket prices cost? viewership cost? merch cost? it will create a ripple to the bottom of the food chain amongst other things that could possibly happen.
Last year the Dodgers swept the Brewers, this year I think Brewers will sweep the Dodgers. frustrate the LA fanbase - temporarily, then their management will make another major signing, a haymaker move to make the fanbase happy and will look forward to next season creating a "revenge" arc for the team. ticket prices go up, life is good again.
But I am looking at the angle of Dodgers being ran as a franchise rather than just looking at per game. Yes they can make a legacy this year if they win it all but how much do you think Yoshi would cost after his contract expires? or Gavin Williams after averaging double digit Ks in every game? Maybe they keep this series interesting and make it to game 7, but I dont think they will get past the Brewers not for the sake of the game but for the sake of the business. This is not a Vegas call, but a management decision within the Dodgers franchise.
Also the Dodgers has been very dominant the whole year and suddenly their bats cant hit on the most important series of their franchise? cant just be a coincidence right?
Dodgers will tank the NLCS series
@JackDragonJack
dodgers losing will be beneficial to the gambling economy as a business. There is this another theory I follow which is the Infinite Game Theory where the game is not about winning or losing and the players play not to win but to stay in the game. If the league as a form of entertainment wants to be in business for so long they cant allow monopoly, yes to some sort of dominance in the game but not to the extent where it will be one sided. The subscription on streaming apps, viewership, merch and ticket sales will plummet which will be bad for the business. I hope you catch the drift and be careful with the Dodgers. 
I dont think you are going to get every player on the dodgers to agree to tank a series. More obvious answer is a few key guys are slumping that were run producers. Betts has been bad all year at the plate, Ohtani just doesnt look healthy, Freeman is consistent but his average in the past has been over .300. As to the rest of the team maybe just getting old. Or pitching is just that good this year. Totals of 6.5 in the playoffs would normally be a joke, but not this year. I have never seen this many 100 mph pitches in my life. The other problem with this theory is that players get paid on their next contract based on their present performance. If a cap gets put in place and the days of the 350 mil payrolls are gone, each player in the bigger markets is going to get less on the next contract. And if you tank your performance now and there is less money to throw around in 2027, your bargaining position on the next contract just went from bad to worse. There is no incentive for the players to tank.
Peak years of Dodgers main guys like Shohei and Yamamoto will be in 2030-31 which is closer than what we think. This will put them in so much expense averaging $30-40m per player and if they have no fanbase or ticket sales to keep the lights on by then or their team's roster dont have new major names since they cant afford new signings then they will be forced to sell the franchise. Look up what happened to the Lakers, as soon as bron left the owners left as fast possible. Look what happened to the Bulls after MJ's dynasty, yes they were on the map but it went bad for the business. Or to the Pats after Brady's dynasty, they sucked longer after a short wave of stardom.
This is more of cyclical pattern, a node to a larger network, this is not something that just happened this year but it has been happening for every decade in just different forms and angles.
@lionelhutz1
I agree that is why it is not the decision of the players but the management and the coaching staff. They can play, they can continue their slumping or maybe hit homers, but the coaching staff can make decisions pregame and ingame right? Why not rearrange the batting order? The dodgers roster already secured their contract for the next 5 to even 10 more years. I am not saying that all of them will tank, they will hit ofcourse, they might even win games for sure. But for them to keep the LA Dodgers as a top competitive franchise they have to keep on signing big names, and they cant keep on doing that if these players will demand so high or they will be imposed by a cap and if they cave in, the most that will be affected are not the players or the teams but the whole MLB as a business since for sure viewership costs and ticket sales will rise.
Again the theory asks; how will the Dodgers franchise as a player in the MLB's game of business will play the game if the league will decide that they will impose a salary cap since majority of the team and players are asking for it since a win is evident if you compensate players based on their "perceived value"?
but I agree not the series, gotta make those beer ad revenues, a sweep is a money loser, gotta make it look credible. Brewers in 6 to pay some bills 
@BANKROLLFRESH
not really, but backing the dodgers to win 2 of the next 3 at home or 4 of the next 5 for the series is more risky if you follow the probability of this theory rather than just backing the underdogs to any 2 of the 3 games at Dodgers so spend your wealth wisely on the Dodgers.
@purple_stars
I will not be surprised if the Guardians will win it all. The last 5 games of Guardians they have kept their opponents .206 on batting average. The last 5 world series champions kept their opponents under .215. The Dodgers in 2025 kept their opponents to .198 batting average.
Guardians as a team is a sleeper for the title this year. They have the arm to go deep on pitching and they have the bats capable of swinging and getting base hits.
@ruffcutter
it is not a story. I think you didnt have a probability or statistics class in college? or maybe you never went to college at all? that is ok. it is not too late. look it up, Game Theory and think if you can how it can be applied to sports considering the recent news in the league.
It's an interesting theory but I think it is not beneficial for them to throw a series.
LA management could control salary caps much earlier in the season by not even being in the playoffs.
This article explains the many reasons why in fact a team would want to win a WS.
Search:
The Business of the World Series on goodstorysports dot TV website
@dub55
I dont think you understand the post at all or you are just as dumb as a worm. So let me rephrase it that even a worm like you can understand.
I am not trying to spin the Dodgers pathetic performance but if they were to act as a franchise and think long term they would rather lose these series, sign big names at a fraction of perceived value rather than win it all this year and sky rocket the salaries of their prospected free agents or get limited through salary cap since small market teams are already claiming it is unfair since they are richer and can get more.
Think of this, Dodgers are trying to prove that winning a championship has nothing to do with payroll if they lose to a small market team - this is how they show you that it is pure sport. But what they are doing is they are signing big names to drive their ticket costs and can result to higher profit - this is the business side. The owner of the franchise dont care about homeruns, batting average, slugging or strikeouts, they care how many fans want to see X,Y, Z names on a Dodgers uniform and how much fans are willing to pay for it. The MLB will support this too but they cant allow this if the small market teams are blatantly complaining. So to avoid the complains they will decide based on the other players (aka the other teams in the league) are deciding to make it seem that everything is fair and this is just pure sport and business has nothing to do with it.
Game theory is mathematical probability decision making tool used in business not in gambling that is why I am not surprised someone like you dont understand it. The concept of Prisoners Dilemma is being applied by the Dodgers and the league to the public.
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