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Pythagorean Plays of the Day

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Posts: 194
 
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Posted: #51
5/31/14

Record: 78-77
Bankroll: 932.49

Boston (-104) Bet 18.65 to win 17.93 
Oakland (-122) Bet 18.65 to win 15.29 
Seattle (126) Bet 18.65 to win 23.50 
Miami (109) Bet 18.65 to win 20.33 
Chi. White Sox (112) Bet 18.65 to win 20.89 

Spotlight Play: 
------------------------ 
2:10 PM ET San Diego [T. Ross] (-121) at Chi. White Sox [A. Rienzo] (112) 8.5 

SDP Pythag: 42.27 | Implied: 54.75 | Diff: -12.48 
CHW Pythag: 57.73 | Implied: 47.17 | Diff: 10.56 

SDP PitchP: 44.54 | Implied: 54.75 | Diff: -10.21 
CHW PitchP: 55.46 | Implied: 47.17 | Diff: 8.29 

Chi. White Sox (112) Bet 18.65 to win 20.89 

------------------------ 
Ross has a home/away Jeckyll and Hyde complex which works to his great detriment on the South Side today.
 
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Posted: #52
6/1/14

Record: 81-79
Bankroll: 951.91

Oakland (-142) Bet 19.04 to win 13.41 
NY Mets (120) Bet 19.04 to win 22.85 
Cincinnati (124) Bet 19.04 to win 23.61 
Washington (102) Bet 19.04 to win 19.42 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
4:10 PM ET Cincinnati [A. Simon] (124) at Arizona [W. Miley] (-134) 8 

CIN Pythag: 54.58 | Implied: 44.64 | Diff: 9.94 
ARI Pythag: 45.42 | Implied: 57.26 | Diff: -11.84 

CIN PitchP: 58.93 | Implied: 44.64 | Diff: 14.29 
ARI PitchP: 41.07 | Implied: 57.26 | Diff: -16.19 

Cincinnati (124) Bet 19.04 to win 23.61 

------------------------ 
Reds the big favorite here after factoring in DBacks loss of the hot hitting Pollock. 
 
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Posted: #53
6/2/14

Record: 84-80
Bankroll: 992.74

Miami (123) Bet 19.85 to win 24.42 

Spotlight Play
------------------------ 
7:10 PM ET Tampa Bay [A. Cobb] (-133) at Miami [R. Wolf] (123) 7.5 

TBR Pythag: 35.61 | Implied: 57.08 | Diff: -21.47 
MIA Pythag: 64.39 | Implied: 44.84 | Diff: 19.55 

TBR PitchP: 40.34 | Implied: 57.08 | Diff: -16.74 
MIA PitchP: 59.66 | Implied: 44.84 | Diff: 14.82 

Miami (123) Bet 19.85 to win 24.42 

------------------------ 
Just one play today so it's in the spotlight - not crazy about backing the Wolf, but at +123 we've got too much positive expectation to ignore.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #54
Love the idea... but, it looks like you're down after 164 plays. Looks like you're just burning juice.
 
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Posted: #55
6/4/14

Record: 85-80
Bankroll: 1017.16

Oakland (-122) Bet 20.34 to win 16.67 
San Francisco (117) Bet 20.34 to win 23.80 
Colorado (-156) Bet 20.34 to win 13.04 
Miami (106) Bet 20.34 to win 21.56 

Spotlight Play: 
------------------------ 
7:05 PM ET Oakland [S. Kazmir] (-122) at NY Yankees [H. Kuroda] (113) 8.5 

OAK Pythag: 70.52 | Implied: 54.95 | Diff: 15.57 
NYY Pythag: 29.48 | Implied: 46.95 | Diff: -17.47 

OAK PitchP: 72.17 | Implied: 54.95 | Diff: 17.22 
NYY PitchP: 27.83 | Implied: 46.95 | Diff: -19.12 

Oakland (-122) Bet 20.34 to win 16.67 

------------------------ 
Big edge for the A's here as the homer $ keeps the line skewed in our favor.
 
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Posted: #56
6/4/14

Record: 87-82
Bankroll: 1014.71

Oakland (-141) Bet 20.29 to win 14.39 
San Francisco (100) Bet 20.29 to win 20.29 
Colorado (-128) Bet 20.29 to win 15.85 
Miami (173) Bet 20.29 to win 35.10 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
7:10 PM ET Miami [T. Koehler] (173) at Tampa Bay [D. Price] (-188) 7 

MIA Pythag: 57.36 | Implied: 36.63 | Diff: 20.73 
TBR Pythag: 42.64 | Implied: 65.28 | Diff: -22.64 

MIA PitchP: 62.44 | Implied: 36.63 | Diff: 25.81 
TBR PitchP: 37.56 | Implied: 65.28 | Diff: -27.72 

Miami (173) Bet 20.29 to win 35.10 

------------------------ 
Marlins are the Rodney Dangerfield of MLB right now and are getting a double whammy of disrespect against the underperforming David Price.  Lines whould be flipped on this one - Marlins a great bet at +173 w/ a 60% chance of winning.  
 
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Posted: #57
6/5/14

Record: 90-83
Bankroll: 1064.20

Oakland (130) Bet 21.28 to win 27.66 
Toronto (139) Bet 21.28 to win 29.58 
Colorado (-126) Bet 21.28 to win 16.89 
Miami (138) Bet 21.28 to win 29.37 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
1:05 PM ET Oakland [D. Pomeranz] (130) at NY Yankees [M. Tanaka] (-141) 7.5 

OAK Pythag: 71.46 | Implied: 43.48 | Diff: 27.98 
NYY Pythag: 28.54 | Implied: 58.51 | Diff: -29.97 

OAK PitchP: 65.09 | Implied: 43.48 | Diff: 21.61 
NYY PitchP: 34.91 | Implied: 58.51 | Diff: -23.60 

Oakland (130) Bet 21.28 to win 27.66 

------------------------ 
The NY Loves Tanaka train is rolling with backers giving them an almost 60% chance of winning this game.  Against most other teams, this may be true but not against the A's, who are getting the brooms out in a bounceback game for Pomeranz.
 
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Posted: #58
6/6/14

Record: 92-85
Bankroll: 1080.59

Oakland (-104) Bet 21.61 to win 20.78 
Seattle (127) Bet 21.61 to win 27.44 
Cleveland (155) Bet 21.61 to win 33.50 
Washington (115) Bet 21.61 to win 24.85 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
7:10 PM ET Seattle [C. Young] (127) at Tampa Bay [E. Bedard] (-138) 7.5 

SEA Pythag: 59.14 | Implied: 44.05 | Diff: 15.09 
TBR Pythag: 40.86 | Implied: 57.98 | Diff: -17.12 

SEA PitchP: 61.10 | Implied: 44.05 | Diff: 17.05 
TBR PitchP: 38.90 | Implied: 57.98 | Diff: -19.08 

Seattle (127) Bet 21.61 to win 27.44 

------------------------ 
How long will the Devil Rays slide last?  I don't know but am happy to take + odds against it ending tonight.  M's should be -150. 
 
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Posted: #59
Mr. E.,
Anything for today?
 
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Posted: #60
6/7/14

Record: 94-87
Bankroll: 1083.00

Seattle (136) Bet 21.66 to win 29.46 
Oakland (-136) Bet 21.66 to win 15.93 
San Francisco (-148) Bet 21.66 to win 14.64 
Washington (122) Bet 21.66 to win 26.43 
Atlanta (100) Bet 21.66 to win 21.66 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
10:05 PM ET NY Mets [B. Colon] (136) at San Francisco [T. Hudson] (-148) 6.5 

NYM Pythag: 33.79 | Implied: 42.37 | Diff: -8.58 
SFG Pythag: 66.21 | Implied: 59.68 | Diff: 6.53 

NYM PitchP: 25.72 | Implied: 42.37 | Diff: -16.65 
SFG PitchP: 74.28 | Implied: 59.68 | Diff: 14.60 

San Francisco (-148) Bet 21.66 to win 14.64 

------------------------ 
Bartolo Colon on the road vs Tim Hudson at home?  -275 would be a fair price.  
 
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Posted: #61
Colon loves pitching in SF's park - Hudson 50/50 against NYM on his home field.

They're still longest shot on the board today
along with Seattle Mariners -
and this scares me off G-men.
 
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Posted: #62
6/8/14

Record: 96-90
Bankroll: 1062.12

Oakland (-125) Bet 21.24 to win 16.99 
Washington (-123) Bet 21.24 to win 17.27 
Colorado (136) Bet 21.24 to win 28.89 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
1:35 PM ET Oakland [S. Kazmir] (-125) at Baltimore [U. Jimenez] (115) 8.5 

OAK Pythag: 66.17 | Implied: 55.56 | Diff: 10.61 
BAL Pythag: 33.83 | Implied: 46.51 | Diff: -12.68 

OAK PitchP: 69.16 | Implied: 55.56 | Diff: 13.60 
BAL PitchP: 30.84 | Implied: 46.51 | Diff: -15.67 

Oakland (-125) Bet 21.24 to win 16.99 

------------------------ 
Kazmir cools the O's bats enough for the A's to go to work on the always generous Jiminez.
 
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Posted: #63
6/9/14

Record: 98-91
Bankroll: 1075.14

Seattle (169) Bet 21.50 to win 36.34 
Oakland (104) Bet 21.50 to win 22.36 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
1:10 PM ET Seattle [E. Ramirez] (169) at Tampa Bay [D. Price] (-184) 7 

SEA Pythag: 60.00 | Implied: 37.17 | Diff: 22.83 
TBR Pythag: 40.00 | Implied: 64.79 | Diff: -24.79 

SEA PitchP: 48.46 | Implied: 37.17 | Diff: 11.29 
TBR PitchP: 51.54 | Implied: 64.79 | Diff: -13.25 

Seattle (169) Bet 21.50 to win 36.34 

------------------------ 
David Price and the Rays continue to be overbet, creating tremendous value on the M's in the early game.
 
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Posted: #64
Nice to have a big fat winner in early.  Free finesse on the A's tonight.
 
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Posted: #65
6/10/14

Record: 99-92
Bankroll: 1089.98

Oakland (-107) Bet 21.80 to win 20.37 
Seattle (-141) Bet 21.80 to win 15.46 
Chi. Cubs (159) Bet 21.80 to win 34.66 
LA Dodgers (112) Bet 21.80 to win 24.42 
Miami (126) Bet 21.80 to win 27.47 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
8:05 PM ET Miami [T. Koehler] (126) at Texas [C. Lewis] (-137) 9 

MIA Pythag: 55.98 | Implied: 44.25 | Diff: 11.73 
TEX Pythag: 44.02 | Implied: 57.81 | Diff: -13.79 

MIA PitchP: 63.49 | Implied: 44.25 | Diff: 19.24 
TEX PitchP: 36.51 | Implied: 57.81 | Diff: -21.30 

Miami (126) Bet 21.80 to win 27.47 
------------------------ 
Hard as it is to get one's mind around the Marlins being better than anyone, let alone the Rangers, they're a steal at +126 tonight.

 
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Posted: #66
Spotlight plays now cashed 4 straight
 
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Posted: #67
Thinking about doing a Pythagorean Chase. Won't even quote you ytd numbers as my straight up numbers are positive. What do you think?
 
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Posts: 1097
Posted: #68
6/11/14

Record: 102-94
Bankroll: 1132.93

LA Dodgers (115) Bet 22.66 to win 26.06 
Miami (206) Bet 22.66 to win 46.68 
Chi. White Sox (138) Bet 22.66 to win 31.27 
Oakland (119) Bet 22.66 to win 26.97 
Seattle (164) Bet 22.66 to win 37.16 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
10:10 PM ET NY Yankees [M. Tanaka] (-178) at Seattle [C. Young] (164) 6.5 

NYY Pythag: 35.31 | Implied: 64.03 | Diff: -28.72 
SEA Pythag: 64.69 | Implied: 37.88 | Diff: 26.81 

NYY PitchP: 46.04 | Implied: 64.03 | Diff: -17.99 
SEA PitchP: 53.96 | Implied: 37.88 | Diff: 16.08 

Seattle (164) Bet 22.66 to win 37.16 

------------------------ 
Feels insane to bet against Tanaka but M's are getting far too much value to pass up.
 
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Posted: #69
6/12/14

Record: 104-97
Bankroll: 1123.19

Cleveland (134) Bet 22.46 to win 30.10 
Philadelphia (102) Bet 22.46 to win 22.91 
Houston (-103) Bet 22.46 to win 21.81 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
1:05 PM ET San Diego [E. Stults] (-110) at Philadelphia [K. Kendrick] (102) 8 

SDP Pythag: 42.87 | Implied: 52.38 | Diff: -9.51 
PHI Pythag: 57.13 | Implied: 49.50 | Diff: 7.63 

SDP PitchP: 33.41 | Implied: 52.38 | Diff: -18.97 
PHI PitchP: 66.59 | Implied: 49.50 | Diff: 17.09 

Philadelphia (102) Bet 22.46 to win 22.91 

------------------------ 
Two less than average pitchers square off in Philly today and you have to give a big edge to the Cheesesteaks who are getting +102 at home.
 
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Posted: #70
6/13/14

Record: 106-98
Bankroll: 1145.45

Houston (112) Bet 22.91 to win 25.66 
Oakland (-177) Bet 22.91 to win 12.94 
Milwaukee (-115) Bet 22.91 to win 19.92 

Spotlight Play: 
------------------------ 
10:05 PM ET NY Yankees [D. Phelps] (163) at Oakland [S. Gray] (-177) 7.5 

NYY Pythag: 21.69 | Implied: 38.02 | Diff: -16.33 
OAK Pythag: 78.31 | Implied: 63.90 | Diff: 14.41 

NYY PitchP: 20.11 | Implied: 38.02 | Diff: -17.91 
OAK PitchP: 79.89 | Implied: 63.90 | Diff: 15.99 

Oakland (-177) Bet 22.91 to win 12.94 

------------------------ 
Sonny makes money - we know this already, but even at -177, the A's are a value play at home vs the Bronx Bombers.
 
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Posted: #71

6/14/14

Record: 106-101

Bankroll: 1076.72

Houston (122) Bet 21.53 to win 26.27
Oakland (-143) Bet 21.53 to win 15.06
Miami (117) Bet 21.53 to win 25.19
NY Mets (-120) Bet 21.53 to win 17.94
Milwaukee (-118) Bet 21.53 to win 18.25
LA Dodgers (-134) Bet 21.53 to win 16.07

Spotlight Play:

------------------------
4:10 PM ET   San Diego [J. Hahn] (111) at NY Mets [Z. Wheeler] (-120)   7.5

SDP Pythag: 34.81 | Implied: 47.39 | Diff: -12.58
NYM Pythag: 65.19 | Implied: 54.55 | Diff: 10.64

SDP PitchP: 18.98 | Implied: 47.39 | Diff: -28.41
NYM PitchP: 81.02 | Implied: 54.55 | Diff: 26.47

NY Mets (-120) Bet 21.53 to win 17.94

------------------------

Pads have dropped 5 straight as they simply can't put runs on the board.  No relief in sight today. 

 
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Posted: #72
6/15/14

Record: 110-103
Bankroll: 1109.31

Houston (156) Bet 22.19 to win 34.62
Oakland (-170) Bet 22.19 to win 13.05
Miami (-105) Bet 22.19 to win 21.13
NY Mets (109) Bet 22.19 to win 24.19
LA Dodgers (-148) Bet 22.19 to win 14.99
LA Angels (115) Bet 22.19 to win 25.52

Spotlight Play:
------------------------
1:10 PM ET      San Diego [I. Kennedy] (-118) at NY Mets [D. Matsuzaka] (109)      7

SDP Pythag: 36.69 | Implied: 54.13 | Diff: -17.44
NYM Pythag: 63.31 | Implied: 47.85 | Diff: 15.46

SDP PitchP: 33.27 | Implied: 54.13 | Diff: -20.86
NYM PitchP: 66.73 | Implied: 47.85 | Diff: 18.88

NY Mets (109) Bet 22.19 to win 24.19

------------------------
Great Father's Day value price, Mets at home w/ Dice
 
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Posted: #73
Record: 113-106
Bankroll: 1101.11
 
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Posted: #74
6/16/14

Record: 113-106
Bankroll: 1101.11

Baltimore (114) Bet 22.02 to win 25.10 
Oakland (-159) Bet 22.02 to win 13.85 
Milwaukee (107) Bet 22.02 to win 23.56 
Colorado (165) Bet 22.02 to win 36.33 
Seattle (111) Bet 22.02 to win 24.44 

Spotlight Play: 
------------------------ 
10:05 PM ET Texas [C. Lewis] (146) at Oakland [D. Pomeranz] (-159) 7.5 

TEX Pythag: 20.97 | Implied: 40.65 | Diff: -19.68 
OAK Pythag: 79.03 | Implied: 61.39 | Diff: 17.64 

TEX PitchP: 13.66 | Implied: 40.65 | Diff: -26.99 
OAK PitchP: 86.34 | Implied: 61.39 | Diff: 24.95 

Oakland (-159) Bet 22.02 to win 13.85 

------------------------ 
A's should be priced well beyond -300 tonight, making the -159 an outstanding value play.
 
 
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Posted: #75
6/17/14

Record: 115-109
Bankroll: 1083.50

Oakland (102) Bet 21.67 to win 22.10 
Seattle (-133) Bet 21.67 to win 16.29 
Washington (-138) Bet 21.67 to win 15.70 

Spotlight Play: 
------------------------ 
3:40 PM ET San Diego [E. Stults] (123) at Seattle [R. Elias] (-133) 7 

SDP Pythag: 29.42 | Implied: 44.84 | Diff: -15.42 
SEA Pythag: 70.58 | Implied: 57.08 | Diff: 13.50 

SDP PitchP: 25.74 | Implied: 44.84 | Diff: -19.10 
SEA PitchP: 74.26 | Implied: 57.08 | Diff: 17.18 

Seattle (-133) Bet 21.67 to win 16.29 

------------------------ 
Big edge to the M's at home - fair price would be -300.  
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