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Pythagorean Plays of the Day

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Posted: #126
7/20/14

Record: 172-164
Bankroll: 1143.06

2:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox (-126) Bet 22.86 to win 18.14

Spotlight Play: 
------------------------ 
2:10 PM ET Houston [J. Cosart] (116) at Chi. White Sox [J. Danks] (-126) 8.5 

HOU Pythag: 38.41 | Implied: 46.30 | Diff: -7.89 
CHW Pythag: 61.59 | Implied: 55.75 | Diff: 5.84 

HOU PitchP: 38.31 | Implied: 46.30 | Diff: -7.99 
CHW PitchP: 61.69 | Implied: 55.75 | Diff: 5.94 

Chi. White Sox (-126) Bet 22.86 to win 18.14 

------------------------ 
Just a single play qualifies today - still no totals hitting the magic mark.
 
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Posted: #127
7/21/14

Record: 172-165
Bankroll: 1120.20

7:07 PM ET Toronto (106) Bet 22.40 to win 23.74 
8:10 PM ET Cleveland Bet 22.40 to win 20.36 on UNDER 9 
7:05 PM ET San Francisco (120) Bet 22.40 to win 26.88 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
7:05 PM ET San Francisco [R. Vogelsong] (120) at Philadelphia [C. Lee] (-130) 7 

SFG Pythag: 55.95 | Implied: 45.45 | Diff: 10.50 
PHI Pythag: 44.05 | Implied: 56.52 | Diff: -12.47 

SFG PitchP: 51.84 | Implied: 45.45 | Diff: 6.39 
PHI PitchP: 48.16 | Implied: 56.52 | Diff: -8.36 

San Francisco (120) Bet 22.40 to win 26.88 

Yes, it is prudent to bet against Cliff Lee at home.  Giants w/ a better than coin flip chance of winning at plus odds.
 
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Posted: #128
7/22/14

Record: 174-166
Bankroll: 1145.04

7:05 PM ET Texas Bet 22.90 to win 20.82 on UNDER 9 
10:05 PM ET Oakland (-248) Bet 22.90 to win 9.23 
8:05 PM ET San Diego Bet 22.90 to win 20.82 on UNDER 9.5 
8:40 PM ET Colorado (168) Bet 22.90 to win 38.47 
10:10 PM ET Seattle (-106) Bet 22.90 to win 21.60 

Spotlight Play
------------------------ 
10:05 PM ET Houston [B. Oberholtzer] (226) at Oakland [S. Kazmir] (-248) 7.5 

HOU Pythag: 21.98 | Implied: 30.67 | Diff: -8.69 
OAK Pythag: 78.02 | Implied: 71.26 | Diff: 6.76 

HOU PitchP: 18.16 | Implied: 30.67 | Diff: -12.51 
OAK PitchP: 81.84 | Implied: 71.26 | Diff: 10.58 

Oakland (-248) Bet 22.90 to win 9.23 PYT

------------------------ 
You don't often see a value play at -248, but the A's are around 80% to win this one which is better than the line indicates.
 
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Posted: #129
7/23/14

Record: 176-169
Bankroll: 1117.98

7:05 PM ET NY Yankees (105) Bet 22.36 to win 23.48
7:07 PM ET Toronto (-106) Bet 22.36 to win 21.09 
10:05 PM ET Oakland (-260) Bet 22.36 to win 8.60 
3:10 PM ET Colorado (141) Bet 22.36 to win 31.53 

Spotlight Play
------------------------ 
7:07 PM ET Boston [C. Buchholz] (-102) at Toronto [R. Dickey] (-106) 8.5 

BOS Pythag: 42.42 | Implied: 50.50 | Diff: -8.08 
TOR Pythag: 57.58 | Implied: 51.46 | Diff: 6.12 

BOS PitchP: 38.36 | Implied: 50.50 | Diff: -12.14 
TOR PitchP: 61.64 | Implied: 51.46 | Diff: 10.18 

Toronto (-106) Bet 22.36 to win 21.09

------------------------ 
Nice edge for the Jays at home tonight.
 
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Posted: #130

TOR 6 | BOS 4

another RL WIN compliments of "Spotlight Play" good call Capps

 
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Posted: #131
7/24/14

Record: 180-169
Bankroll: 1202.68

3:35 PM ET Oakland (-243) Bet 24.05 to win 9.90 
1:05 PM ET San Francisco (113) Bet 24.05 to win 27.18 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
1:05 PM ET San Francisco [T. Hudson] (113) at Philadelphia [C. Hamels] (-122) 7 

SFG Pythag: 57.34 | Implied: 46.95 | Diff: 10.39 
PHI Pythag: 42.66 | Implied: 54.95 | Diff: -12.29 

SFG PitchP: 53.69 | Implied: 46.95 | Diff: 6.74 
PHI PitchP: 46.31 | Implied: 54.95 | Diff: -8.64 

San Francisco (113) Bet 24.05 to win 27.18 

------------------------ 
Giants should be the favorite vs the Phils in one of today's day games.  Book profits early today.
 
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Posted: #132
7/25/14

Record: 181-170
Bankroll: 1188.53

7:05 PM ET Toronto (120) Bet 23.77 to win 28.52 
8:05 PM ET Texas (149) Bet 23.77 to win 35.42 
8:05 PM ET Oakland Bet 23.77 to win 21.61 on UNDER 9.5  
8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox Bet 23.77 to win 21.61 on UNDER 9  
8:10 PM ET Milwaukee (-140) Bet 23.77 to win 16.98 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
7:05 PM ET Toronto [M. Buehrle] (120) at NY Yankees [H. Kuroda] (-130) 8 

TOR Pythag: 51.18 | Implied: 45.45 | Diff: 5.73 
NYY Pythag: 48.82 | Implied: 56.52 | Diff: -7.70 

TOR PitchP: 52.85 | Implied: 45.45 | Diff: 7.40 
NYY PitchP: 47.15 | Implied: 56.52 | Diff: -9.37 

Toronto (120) Bet 23.77 to win 28.52 

------------------------ 
Yanks backers overpaying against Buehrle, who is quietly having an excellent year.
 
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Posted: #133
7/26/14

Record: 183-173
Bankroll: 1174.25

4:10 PM ET Seattle (-103) Bet 23.48 to win 22.80 
7:10 PM ET Tampa Bay (106) Bet 23.48 to win 24.89 
7:10 PM ET Minnesota (164) Bet 23.48 to win 38.51 
8:05 PM ET Oakland (-186) Bet 23.48 to win 12.62 
8:05 PM ET Oakland Bet 23.48 to win 21.35 on UNDER 9  
9:05 PM ET San Francisco (176) Bet 23.48 to win 41.32 
9:05 PM ET LA Dodgers Bet 23.48 to win 21.35 on OVER 6 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
7:10 PM ET Boston [J. Lackey] (-115) at Tampa Bay [J. Hellickson] (106) 7.5 

BOS Pythag: 43.09 | Implied: 53.49 | Diff: -10.40 
TBR Pythag: 56.91 | Implied: 48.54 | Diff: 8.37 

BOS PitchP: 37.52 | Implied: 53.49 | Diff: -15.97 
TBR PitchP: 62.48 | Implied: 48.54 | Diff: 13.94 

Tampa Bay (106) Bet 23.48 to win 24.89 PYT

------------------------ 
Haven't seen much action on the Rays - system has gone against them more frequently, but today they're an excellent value at home vs the RSox.
 
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Posted: #134
7/28/14

Record: 187-176
Bankroll: 1185.47

7:05 PM ET Oakland Bet 23.71 to win 21.55 on UNDER 9 
1:35 PM ET Arizona (-118) Bet 23.71 to win 20.09
2:20 PM ET Chi. Cubs (141) Bet 23.71 to win 33.43
4:10 PM ET Pittsburgh Bet 23.71 to win 21.55 on UNDER 10.5 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
2:20 PM ET St. Louis [A. Wainwright] (-153) at Chi. Cubs [K. Hendricks] (141) 7.5 

STL Pythag: 52.49 | Implied: 60.47 | Diff: -7.98 
CHC Pythag: 47.51 | Implied: 41.49 | Diff: 6.02 

STL PitchP: 52.10 | Implied: 60.47 | Diff: -8.37 
CHC PitchP: 47.90 | Implied: 41.49 | Diff: 6.41 

Chi. Cubs (141) Bet 23.71 to win 33.43 PYT

------------------------ 
Wind blowing out to right today at Wrigley actually favors the home side.  Cards still a coin toss favorite, but at +141, the dog payout is too hard to ignore.
 
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Posted: #135
7/29/14

Record: 187-180
Bankroll: 1090.63

7:10 PM ET Toronto (126) Bet 21.81 to win 27.48 
7:10 PM ET Toronto Bet 21.81 to win 19.83 on UNDER 9 
8:05 PM ET NY Yankees (136) Bet 21.81 to win 29.66 
8:10 PM ET Oakland (-195) Bet 21.81 to win 11.18 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
7:10 PM ET Toronto [R. Dickey] (126) at Boston [C. Buchholz] (-137) 9 

TOR Pythag: 51.97 | Implied: 44.25 | Diff: 7.72 
BOS Pythag: 48.03 | Implied: 57.81 | Diff: -9.78 

TOR PitchP: 55.60 | Implied: 44.25 | Diff: 11.35 
BOS PitchP: 44.40 | Implied: 57.81 | Diff: -13.41 

Toronto (126) Bet 21.81 to win 27.48

------------------------ 
Jays should be favored at Fenway tonight.  Red Sox backers continue to overypay for this year's edition.
 
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Posted: #136
Quote Originally Posted by MrECapps:

7/29/14

Record: 187-180
Bankroll: 1090.63

7:10 PM ET Toronto (126) Bet 21.81 to win 27.48 
7:10 PM ET Toronto Bet 21.81 to win 19.83 on UNDER 9 
8:05 PM ET NY Yankees (136) Bet 21.81 to win 29.66 
8:10 PM ET Oakland (-195) Bet 21.81 to win 11.18 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
7:10 PM ET Toronto [R. Dickey] (126) at Boston [C. Buchholz] (-137) 9 

TOR Pythag: 51.97 | Implied: 44.25 | Diff: 7.72 
BOS Pythag: 48.03 | Implied: 57.81 | Diff: -9.78 

TOR PitchP: 55.60 | Implied: 44.25 | Diff: 11.35 
BOS PitchP: 44.40 | Implied: 57.81 | Diff: -13.41 

Toronto (126) Bet 21.81 to win 27.48

------------------------ 
Jays should be favored at Fenway tonight.  Red Sox backers continue to overypay for this year's edition.

Dickey and Buchholz pitched last night on the 28th. 
 
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Posted: #137
My mistake - just got back from vacation and I been off by a day for the last 2 days on the dates at the top of each post.  Sadly, the posts have been correct for the actual day they were submitted, during which time they have gone 1-7.  
 
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Posted: #138
7/29/14 <- correct date now

Record: 188-183
Bankroll: 1052.68

7:10 PM ET Toronto (-107) Bet 21.05 to win 19.67 
8:10 PM ET Oakland (-189) Bet 21.05 to win 11.14 
7:10 PM ET NY Mets (114) Bet 21.05 to win 24.00 
7:10 PM ET Cincinnati (-125) Bet 21.05 to win 16.84 
10:10 PM ET St. Louis Bet 21.05 to win 19.14 on OVER 6 
7:10 PM ET Milwaukee (145) Bet 21.05 to win 30.52 

Spotlight Play: 

------------------------ 
7:10 PM ET Milwaukee [M. Garza] (145) at Tampa Bay [A. Cobb] (-157) 7 

MIL Pythag: 49.17 | Implied: 40.82 | Diff: 8.35 
TBR Pythag: 50.83 | Implied: 61.09 | Diff: -10.26 

MIL PitchP: 49.45 | Implied: 40.82 | Diff: 8.63 
TBR PitchP: 50.55 | Implied: 61.09 | Diff: -10.54 

Milwaukee (145) Bet 21.05 to win 30.52 
------------------------ 
Brewers 12-18 over their last 30 but 5-5 over their last 10.   

 
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Posted: #139
7/30/14

Record: 191-186
Bankroll: 1037.18

7:10 PM ET Toronto (109) Bet 20.74 to win 22.61 
12:35 PM ET Cincinnati (-105) Bet 20.74 to win 19.75 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
12:35 PM ET Arizona [W. Miley] (-103) at Cincinnati [A. Simon] (-105) 7 

ARI Pythag: 37.66 | Implied: 50.74 | Diff: -13.08 
CIN Pythag: 62.34 | Implied: 51.22 | Diff: 11.12 

ARI PitchP: 35.82 | Implied: 50.74 | Diff: -14.92 
CIN PitchP: 64.18 | Implied: 51.22 | Diff: 12.96 

Cincinnati (-105) Bet 20.74 to win 19.75 

------------------------ 
Reds looking excellent behind Simon.
 
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Posted: #140
My goodness the Red Sox look terrible right now.
 
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Posted: #141
7/31/14

Record: 192-187
Bankroll: 1039.05

7:05 PM ET Seattle (120) Bet 20.78 to win 24.94 
3:40 PM ET San Diego (100) Bet 20.78 to win 20.78 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
7:05 PM ET Seattle [C. Young] (120) at Cleveland [Z. McAllister] (-130) 8.5 

SEA Pythag: 51.73 | Implied: 45.45 | Diff: 6.28 
CLE Pythag: 48.27 | Implied: 56.52 | Diff: -8.25 

SEA PitchP: 56.46 | Implied: 45.45 | Diff: 11.01 
CLE PitchP: 43.54 | Implied: 56.52 | Diff: -12.98 

Seattle (120) Bet 20.78 to win 24.94 
----------------------- 
Seattle has covered 11 of 20 starts for Chris Young this season.  
 
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Posted: #142
8/1/14

Record: 193-188
Bankroll: 1043.21

7:10 PM ET NY Yankees Bet 20.86 to win 18.96 on UNDER 9

RSox a mess.
 
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Posted: #143

BOS 4 -vs- NYY 3

nice call on the UNDER 9

 
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Posted: #144
8/2/14

Record: 194-188
Bankroll: 1062.17

4:05 PM ET NY Yankees Bet 21.24 to win 19.31 on UNDER 9  
4:05 PM ET Oakland (-181) Bet 21.24 to win 11.73 
7:05 PM ET Seattle Bet 21.24 to win 19.31 on UNDER 8.5  
7:10 PM ET LA Angels (113) Bet 21.24 to win 24.00 
8:40 PM ET San Diego (-110) Bet 21.24 to win 19.31 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
7:10 PM ET LA Angels [C. Wilson] (113) at Tampa Bay [C. Archer] (-122) 7.5 

LAA Pythag: 55.38 | Implied: 46.95 | Diff: 8.43 
TBR Pythag: 44.62 | Implied: 54.95 | Diff: -10.33 

LAA PitchP: 54.96 | Implied: 46.95 | Diff: 8.01 
TBR PitchP: 45.04 | Implied: 54.95 | Diff: -9.91 

LA Angels (113) Bet 21.24 to win 24.00

------------------------ 
Angels have won 4 of 5 over the Rays this season, yet the public continues to instill the Rays as favorites.  Big edge here is the Angels bats. 
 
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Posted: #145
8/3/14

Record: 196-190
Bankroll: 1029.49

1:05 PM ET Cleveland (107) Bet 20.59 to win 22.03 
1:40 PM ET Tampa Bay (-111) Bet 20.59 to win 18.55 
4:05 PM ET Oakland (-158) Bet 20.59 to win 13.03 
1:35 PM ET Washington (-148) Bet 20.59 to win 13.91 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
1:05 PM ET Texas [Y. Darvish] (-116) at Cleveland [T. Bauer] (107) 7 

TEX Pythag: 33.01 | Implied: 53.70 | Diff: -20.69 
CLE Pythag: 66.99 | Implied: 48.31 | Diff: 18.68 

TEX PitchP: 37.82 | Implied: 53.70 | Diff: -15.88 
CLE PitchP: 62.18 | Implied: 48.31 | Diff: 13.87 

Cleveland (107) Bet 20.59 to win 22.03 

------------------------ 
Tribe not afraid of Yu.  They've hit him will over the last few years, including 9 hits (2hr) in their last matchup June 6.
 
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Posted: #146
Tribe score 2 in the ninth to tie, and one in x-ings for a dynamic 4-3 WIN.... good call
 
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Posted: #147
8/4/14

Record: 198-192
Bankroll: 1024.25

8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox (-133) Bet 20.48 to win 15.40 
10:05 PM ET Oakland (-138) Bet 20.48 to win 14.84 
7:05 PM ET Cincinnati (192) Bet 20.48 to win 39.32 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
7:05 PM ET Cincinnati [A. Simon] (192) at Cleveland [C. Kluber] (-210) 7 

CIN Pythag: 46.31 | Implied: 34.25 | Diff: 12.06 
CLE Pythag: 53.69 | Implied: 67.74 | Diff: -14.05 

CIN PitchP: 40.92 | Implied: 34.25 | Diff: 6.67 
CLE PitchP: 59.08 | Implied: 67.74 | Diff: -8.66 

Cincinnati (192) Bet 20.48 to win 39.32 

------------------------
Reds are the ultimate value play today w/ a  huge payout on a near coin toss implied prob.

 
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Posted: #148
8/5/14

Record: 200-193
Bankroll: 1034.01

8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox (-108) Bet 20.68 to win 19.15 
10:10 PM ET Atlanta Bet 20.68 to win 18.80 on OVER 6 
10:10 PM ET LA Angels (195) Bet 20.68 to win 40.33 

Spotlight Play
------------------------ 
8:10 PM ET Texas [C. Lewis] (100) at Chi. White Sox [J. Danks] (-108) 9 

TEX Pythag: 36.31 | Implied: 50.00 | Diff: -13.69 
CHW Pythag: 63.69 | Implied: 51.92 | Diff: 11.77 

TEX PitchP: 33.38 | Implied: 50.00 | Diff: -16.62 
CHW PitchP: 66.62 | Implied: 51.92 | Diff: 14.70 

Chi. White Sox (-108) Bet 20.68 to win 19.15 PYT

------------------------ 
Sox should be sitting as huge favorites at home in the Cell tonight.  
 
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Posted: #149
8/6/14

Record: 200-195
Bankroll: 992.65

2:10 PM ET Texas (206) Bet 19.85 to win 40.89 
3:40 PM ET Seattle (105) Bet 19.85 to win 20.84 
7:05 PM ET Detroit Bet 19.85 to win 18.05 on UNDER 9
9:40 PM ET Kansas City (-141) Bet 19.85 to win 14.08 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
3:40 PM ET Atlanta [J. Teheran] (-114) at Seattle [C. Young] (105) 7 

ATL Pythag: 40.32 | Implied: 53.27 | Diff: -12.95 
SEA Pythag: 59.68 | Implied: 48.78 | Diff: 10.90 

ATL PitchP: 44.25 | Implied: 53.27 | Diff: -9.02 
SEA PitchP: 55.75 | Implied: 48.78 | Diff: 6.97 

Seattle (105) Bet 19.85 to win 20.84 PYT

------------------------ 
We  have documented the fact that Chris Young is tough at home, especially when he's priced at +105.
 
 
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Posted: #150
8/7/14

Record: 204-195
Bankroll: 1086.51

3:10 PM ET Colorado (-111) Bet 21.73 to win 19.58 

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