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Pythagorean Plays of the Day

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Posted: #101
Quote Originally Posted by MrECapps:

Buford, I generally spotlight the highest variance game but sometimes will feature games w/ particularly high or low odds to show that value can be obtained at any price level.   

In related notes, I finally completed my backtester and have successfully modeled this system.  With some time free over the holiday weekend, I plan to get busy testing additional strategies that have percolating in my mind recently. 

Good luck with your backtesting...Hope you find some gold in there
 
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Posted: #102
7/4/14

Record: 144-138
Bankroll: 1094.38

Oakland (-122) Bet 21.89 to win 17.94
Detroit (-119) Bet 21.89 to win 18.39
Seattle (146) Bet 21.89 to win 31.96
Philadelphia (176) Bet 21.89 to win 38.53
NY Mets (113) Bet 21.89 to win 24.74

Spotlight Play:
------------------------
7:10 PM ET      Seattle [R. Elias] (146) at Chi. White Sox [C. Sale] (-159)      7.5

SEA Pythag: 59.80 | Implied: 40.65 | Diff: 19.15
CHW Pythag: 40.20 | Implied: 61.39 | Diff: -21.19

SEA PitchP: 48.55 | Implied: 40.65 | Diff: 7.90
CHW PitchP: 51.45 | Implied: 61.39 | Diff: -9.94

Seattle (146) Bet 21.89 to win 31.96

------------------------
The numbers favor a win for the M's but they're big dogs at the betting window. 
 
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Posted: #103
Thank you for your diligence with this approach. Your reasoning is very solid and if you can sustain the grind, you will end with a well valued ROI at season's end. GL w/ the system and thanks again for your valuable input.
 
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Posted: #104
7/5/14

Record: 146-141
Bankroll: 1071.39

Detroit (-125) Bet 21.43 to win 17.14
Baltimore (134) Bet 21.43 to win 28.72
Oakland (-140) Bet 21.43 to win 15.31
LA Angels (-158) Bet 21.43 to win 13.56
NY Mets (-132) Bet 21.43 to win 16.23

Spotlight Play:
------------------------
4:08 PM ET      Tampa Bay [C. Archer] (115) at Detroit [A. Sanchez] (-125)      8

TBR Pythag: 37.39 | Implied: 46.51 | Diff: -9.12
DET Pythag: 62.61 | Implied: 55.56 | Diff: 7.05

TBR PitchP: 31.75 | Implied: 46.51 | Diff: -14.76
DET PitchP: 68.25 | Implied: 55.56 | Diff: 12.69

Detroit (-125) Bet 21.43 to win 17.14

------------------------
Detroit an outstanding value at -125 at home today.  With an overall pythag prob around 67%, fair value would be -200.
 
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Posted: #105
7/6/14

Record: 149-143
Bankroll: 1086.12

Baltimore (115) Bet 21.43 to win 24.64
Oakland (-151) Bet 21.43 to win 14.19
Detroit (107) Bet 21.43 to win 22.93

Spotlight Play:
------------------------
8:00 PM ET      Tampa Bay [D. Price] (-116) at Detroit [R. Porcello] (107)      7.5

TBR Pythag: 38.71 | Implied: 53.70 | Diff: -14.99
DET Pythag: 61.29 | Implied: 48.31 | Diff: 12.98

TBR PitchP: 33.85 | Implied: 53.70 | Diff: -19.85
DET PitchP: 66.15 | Implied: 48.31 | Diff: 17.84

Detroit (107) Bet 21.43 to win 22.93

------------------------
Been crazy to bet against the Rays lately but we'll fade the hot hand as the Tigers look excellent at home today.
 
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Posted: #106
7/7/14

Record: 151-144
Bankroll: 1103.52

Chi. White Sox (180) Bet 22.07 to win 39.73 
Oakland (-159) Bet 22.07 to win 13.88 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
7:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox [S. Carroll] (180) at Boston [C. Buchholz] (-196) 10 

CHW Pythag: 48.42 | Implied: 35.71 | Diff: 12.71 
BOS Pythag: 51.58 | Implied: 66.22 | Diff: -14.64 

CHW PitchP: 52.35 | Implied: 35.71 | Diff: 16.64 
BOS PitchP: 47.65 | Implied: 66.22 | Diff: -18.57 

Chi. White Sox (180) Bet 22.07 to win 39.73 

------------------------ 
In what  looks to be a slugfest at Fenway, one is happy to take the dog at big odds.  
 
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Posted: #107

 

Nice call  on the Chi White Sox !!!  

Appreciate your work.

Good Luck

 
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Posted: #108
7/8/14

Record: 153-144
Bankroll: 1157.13

Cleveland (143) Bet 23.14 to win 33.09 
Chi. White Sox (150) Bet 23.14 to win 34.71 
Seattle (-115) Bet 23.14 to win 20.12 
Cincinnati (-108) Bet 23.14 to win 21.43 
Oakland (-146) Bet 23.14 to win 15.85 

Spotlight Play: 
------------------------ 
10:10 PM ET Minnesota [P. Hughes] (106) at Seattle [C. Young] (-115) 7 

MIN Pythag: 32.77 | Implied: 48.54 | Diff: -15.77 
SEA Pythag: 67.23 | Implied: 53.49 | Diff: 13.74 

MIN PitchP: 33.65 | Implied: 48.54 | Diff: -14.89 
SEA PitchP: 66.35 | Implied: 53.49 | Diff: 12.86 

Seattle (-115) Bet 23.14 to win 20.12 

------------------------ 
M's continue to be undervalued at home.  Fair line here would be closer to -200.
 
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Posted: #109
 
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Posted: #110
7/9/14

Record: 157-145
Bankroll: 1239.07

8:05 PM ET Houston (182) Bet 24.78 to win 45.10 
3:40 PM ET Miami (108) Bet 24.78 to win 26.76 
7:10 PM ET NY Mets (108) Bet 24.78 to win 26.76 
10:15 PM ET Oakland (-116) Bet 24.78 to win 21.36 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
8:05 PM ET Houston [D. Keuchel] (182) at Texas [Y. Darvish] (-199) 8 

HOU Pythag: 46.51 | Implied: 35.46 | Diff: 11.05 
TEX Pythag: 53.49 | Implied: 66.56 | Diff: -13.07 

HOU PitchP: 43.24 | Implied: 35.46 | Diff: 7.78 
TEX PitchP: 56.76 | Implied: 66.56 | Diff: -9.80 

Houston (182) Bet 24.78 to win 45.10 

------------------------ 
I've got Houston w/ a 45% or so chance of winning this one so the long odds are particularly enticing.
 
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Posted: #111
7/10/14

Record: 159-147
Bankroll: 1261.37

3:45 PM ET Oakland (-119) Bet 25.23 to win 21.20 
4:05 PM ET Chi. White Sox (144) Bet 25.23 to win 36.33 
8:05 PM ET LA Angels (-117) Bet 25.23 to win 21.56 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
8:05 PM ET LA Angels [H. Santiago] (-117) at Texas [C. Lewis] (108) 9.5 

LAA Pythag: 63.06 | Implied: 53.92 | Diff: 9.14 
TEX Pythag: 36.94 | Implied: 48.08 | Diff: -11.14 

LAA PitchP: 63.87 | Implied: 53.92 | Diff: 9.95 
TEX PitchP: 36.13 | Implied: 48.08 | Diff: -11.95 

LA Angels (-117) Bet 25.23 to win 21.56 

------------------------
Rangers seem to be persistently overbet this year, leading to nice value plays on their opponents.  Covers has them as the 3rd worst $ team in baseball right now.
 
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Posted: #112
Great stuff MrE keep the momentum rolling!
 
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Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by MrECapps:

7/9/14

Record: 157-145
Bankroll: 1239.07

8:05 PM ET Houston (182) Bet 24.78 to win 45.10 
3:40 PM ET Miami (108) Bet 24.78 to win 26.76 
7:10 PM ET NY Mets (108) Bet 24.78 to win 26.76 
10:15 PM ET Oakland (-116) Bet 24.78 to win 21.36 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
8:05 PM ET Houston [D. Keuchel] (182) at Texas [Y. Darvish] (-199) 8 

HOU Pythag: 46.51 | Implied: 35.46 | Diff: 11.05 
TEX Pythag: 53.49 | Implied: 66.56 | Diff: -13.07 

HOU PitchP: 43.24 | Implied: 35.46 | Diff: 7.78 
TEX PitchP: 56.76 | Implied: 66.56 | Diff: -9.80 

Houston (182) Bet 24.78 to win 45.10 

------------------------ 
I've got Houston w/ a 45% or so chance of winning this one so the long odds are particularly enticing.
outstanding call on the Astros at +182 ML (TEX at home with their ace Darvish on the mound) well done...good work!
 
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Posted: #114
Quote Originally Posted by MrECapps:

After reading Moneyball by Lewis and Trading Bases by Peta, I decided to formulate my own version of sabermetrics in an attempt to beat the spread.  My system downloads daily game, line and spread data from covers.com, then spiders baseball-reference.com to get detailed team and individual stats.  For each game, lineup information is used to calculate the pythagorean probability of each team winning.  A second pythagorean probability is then calculated weighing the starting and available bullpen pitchers.  These probabilities are compared to the implied probabilities from the moneyline and bets are taken where there is an edge of several percentage points or more in both the team and the pitcher pythagorean probabilities.  

All plays risk 2% of a starting bankroll of $1000.

Sample output of the system:

------------------------ 
7:05 PM ET Cleveland [Z. McAllister] (138) at LA Angels [C. Wilson] (-150) 8.5 

CLE Pythag: 26.58 | Implied: 42.02 | Diff: -15.44 
LAA Pythag: 73.42 | Implied: 60.00 | Diff: 13.42 

CLE PitchP: 28.90 | Implied: 42.02 | Diff: -13.12 
LAA PitchP: 71.10 | Implied: 60.00 | Diff: 11.10 

LA Angels (-150) Bet 20 to win 13.33 

------------------------ 

Here the Angels have a 73.42% chance of winning based on team/lineup stats and a 71.10% chance of winning based on starting and available pitchers.  At -150, they have an implied probability of 60%.  Since both the pythagorean probabilities for a win are much greater than the implied, the Angels are a play at -150.

I see a lot of Bill James, and Tom Tango insight, have you read anything attached to their methodology? Base_Runs Runs_Created formulas? if not, check it out, they all coincide with what your working on... and go deep into the connection of handicapping MLB to sabermetric formulations, good thread here!
 
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Posted: #115
Indeed sports network I am a true sports nerd when in comes to the statistical study of baseball, often reading papers/research while watching games.  I find the pace of games lends itself to this pursuit.  Thanks for the trailheads, always looking to improve.  It's become trivial to acquire and test the data for these formulations against the lines.   Also like the fantasy stat analyses for player projections. 

Currently working on applying these methods to the totals - in fact, you'll start to see plays on totals showing up later today and with increasing frequency in the weeks ahead.
 
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Posted: #116
7/11/14

Record: 161-148
Bankroll: 1278.90

7:05 PM ET Baltimore (-110) Bet 25.23 to win 22.94 
7:10 PM ET Toronto (125) Bet 25.23 to win 31.54 
8:10 PM ET Houston (122) Bet 25.23 to win 30.78 
10:10 PM ET Oakland (115) Bet 25.23 to win 29.01 
7:10 PM ET Cincinnati (-105) Bet 25.23 to win 24.03 
8:40 PM ET Minnesota (148) Bet 25.23 to win 37.34 
8:40 PM ET Minnesota Bet 25.23 on UNDER 10.5 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
7:10 PM ET Toronto [M. Buehrle] (125) at Tampa Bay [C. Archer] (-135) 7 

TOR Pythag: 52.90 | Implied: 44.44 | Diff: 8.46 
TBR Pythag: 47.10 | Implied: 57.45 | Diff: -10.35 

TOR PitchP: 55.30 | Implied: 44.44 | Diff: 10.86 
TBR PitchP: 44.70 | Implied: 57.45 | Diff: -12.75 

Toronto (125) Bet 25.23 to win 31.54 

------------------------ 
Another clear cut case of positive expectation combined with +odds!  First total play today - hope to end the year positive on totals as well.
 
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Posted: #117
Good luck with the addition of totals!
 
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Posted: #118
Quote Originally Posted by MrECapps:

Indeed sports network I am a true sports nerd when in comes to the statistical study of baseball, often reading papers/research while watching games.  I find the pace of games lends itself to this pursuit.  Thanks for the trailheads, always looking to improve.  It's become trivial to acquire and test the data for these formulations against the lines.   Also like the fantasy stat analyses for player projections. 

Currently working on applying these methods to the totals - in fact, you'll start to see plays on totals showing up later today and with increasing frequency in the weeks ahead.
good call on your first TOTALS play: MIN-vs-COL UNDER 10 WINNER
 
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Posted: #119
7/12/14

Record: 165-151
Bankroll: 1304.66

4:10 PM ET Toronto (124) Bet 26.09 to win 32.35 
7:10 PM ET Detroit (118) Bet 26.09 to win 30.79 
10:10 PM ET Oakland (102) Bet 26.09 to win 26.61 
4:05 PM ET San Francisco (-119) Bet 26.09 to win 21.92 
4:10 PM ET Milwaukee (119) Bet 26.09 to win 31.05 
10:10 PM ET LA Dodgers (-103) Bet 26.09 to win 25.33 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
10:10 PM ET San Diego [I. Kennedy] (-105) at LA Dodgers [P. Maholm] (-103) 7.5 

SDP Pythag: 33.21 | Implied: 51.22 | Diff: -18.01 
LAD Pythag: 66.79 | Implied: 50.74 | Diff: 16.05 

SDP PitchP: 38.43 | Implied: 51.22 | Diff: -12.79 
LAD PitchP: 61.57 | Implied: 50.74 | Diff: 10.83 

LA Dodgers (-103) Bet 26.09 to win 25.33 

------------------------ 
Give the Pads a slight nod in the pitching matchup, but the Dojers are so far ahead on the team numbers, they're still an excellent value at home tonight.

Note: Scoring the totals at 110/100 so yesterday's risk of 25.23 paid 22.94.
 
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Posted: #120

really like what you doing! will there be a total play everyday?

Thanks!

 
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Posted: #121
7/13/14

Record: 167-155
Bankroll: 1256.42

1:40 PM ET Toronto (157) Bet 25.13 to win 39.45 
2:10 PM ET Houston (124) Bet 25.13 to win 31.16 
4:10 PM ET LA Dodgers (-144) Bet 25.13 to win 17.45 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
1:40 PM ET Toronto [R. Dickey] (157) at Tampa Bay [D. Price] (-171) 6.5 

TOR Pythag: 51.79 | Implied: 38.91 | Diff: 12.88 
TBR Pythag: 48.21 | Implied: 63.10 | Diff: -14.89 

TOR PitchP: 50.21 | Implied: 38.91 | Diff: 11.30 
TBR PitchP: 49.79 | Implied: 63.10 | Diff: -13.31 

Toronto (157) Bet 25.13 to win 39.45 

------------------------ 
Haven't been high on Price or the Rays all year.  Jays a slight favorite to win yet getting fat odds. 

Totals will be posted as they trigger.  I've got the settings pretty tight right now so I can watch it a bit in real time.  
 
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Posted: #122
At the All Star Break

Record: 168-157
Bankroll: 1223.61
 
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Posted: #123
7/18/14

Record: 168-157
Bankroll: 1223.61

7:07 PM ET Toronto (101) Bet 24.47 to win 24.71 
8:10 PM ET Minnesota (116) Bet 24.47 to win 28.39 
10:05 PM ET Oakland (-148) Bet 24.47 to win 16.53 
10:10 PM ET NY Mets (114) Bet 24.47 to win 27.90 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
8:10 PM ET Tampa Bay [A. Cobb] (-126) at Minnesota [K. Gibson] (116) 7.5 

TBR Pythag: 44.73 | Implied: 55.75 | Diff: -11.02 
MIN Pythag: 55.27 | Implied: 46.30 | Diff: 8.97 

TBR PitchP: 42.56 | Implied: 55.75 | Diff: -13.19 
MIN PitchP: 57.44 | Implied: 46.30 | Diff: 11.14 

Minnesota (116) Bet 24.47 to win 28.39 

------------------------ 
Twinkies excellent value at home tonight.
 
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Posted: #124
Mr. E.,

Over/under(s) favored tonight??


 
 
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Posted: #125
7/19/14

Record: 170-159
Bankroll: 1219.10

1:08 PM ET Detroit (120) Bet 24.38 to win 29.26 
7:10 PM ET Minnesota (142) Bet 24.38 to win 34.62 
7:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox (-102) Bet 24.38 to win 23.90 
9:05 PM ET Oakland (-139) Bet 24.38 to win 17.54 
9:05 PM ET LA Angels (-102) Bet 24.38 to win 23.90
7:10 PM ET San Francisco (-111) Bet 24.38 to win 21.96 
8:40 PM ET NY Mets (118) Bet 24.38 to win 28.77 

Spotlight Play:
------------------------ 
8:40 PM ET NY Mets [D. Gee] (118) at San Diego [T. Ross] (-128) 6.5 

NYM Pythag: 55.87 | Implied: 45.87 | Diff: 10.00 
SDP Pythag: 44.13 | Implied: 56.14 | Diff: -12.01 

NYM PitchP: 58.53 | Implied: 45.87 | Diff: 12.66 
SDP PitchP: 41.47 | Implied: 56.14 | Diff: -14.67 

NY Mets (118) Bet 24.38 to win 28.77 

------------------------ 
With little expectations for offense from the home side, the Mets provide excellent payoff odds.
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