Pythagorean Plays of the Day

It's great what your doing here but after all this work and 224 plays the system as only made $83.50.  Is there anything you can do to make yourself some more profits.  Profits are profits but at this rate it will take forever to make any real money. I understand its a marathon not a sprint and I respect your diligent dedicated form!

I hear you Oil!  Next phase in the project has been to build a database of games w/ stats, etc for backtesting.  I just found Degen's spreadsheet for baseball (awesome) and downloaded a bunch of years worth of data.  Biggest problem is lack of time to run simulations as both work and social calendars read FULL for me w no letup in sight so my improvements will be gradual and incremental.

6/18/14

Nice work yesterday!

6/19/14

6/20/14

6/21/14 - Summer Solstice

Record: 124-117

Bankroll: 1093.69

 

Seattle (151) Bet 21.87 to win 33.02
Oakland (-143) Bet 21.87 to win 15.29
Houston (151) Bet 21.87 to win 33.02
San Francisco (103) Bet 21.87 to win 22.53
LA Dodgers (-109) Bet 21.87 to win 20.06

Spotlight Play:

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10:10 PM ET   LA Dodgers [J. Beckett] (-109) at San Diego [T. Ross] (101)   6.5

LAD Pythag: 62.08 | Implied: 52.15 | Diff: 9.93
SDP Pythag: 37.92 | Implied: 49.75 | Diff: -11.83

LAD PitchP: 65.43 | Implied: 52.15 | Diff: 13.28
SDP PitchP: 34.57 | Implied: 49.75 | Diff: -15.18

LA Dodgers (-109) Bet 21.87 to win 20.06

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Stro's (like white sox) sure to suck today;
otherwise you swept the board Mr. E
 

6/23/14

Thanks Pendo. Account at new highs but as you know, another day another struggle another set of games to juggle.

6/24/14

6/25/14

Really would like to know what parameters you use in calculating both the Pythag and PitchP. I think we all can figure out the implied %s. Just like to know what criteria you use and how much weight is applied to each.

6/26/14

6/27/14

6/28/14: Dog Day Afternoon

Record: 136-125
Bankroll: 1195.77

Minnesota (148) Bet 23.92 to win 35.40
Seattle (-119) Bet 23.92 to win 20.10
Chi. Cubs (141) Bet 23.92 to win 33.73
Philadelphia (115) Bet 23.92 to win 27.51

Spotlight Play:
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10:10 PM ET      Cleveland [J. Tomlin] (110) at Seattle [R. Elias] (-119)      7.5

CLE Pythag: 35.37 | Implied: 47.62 | Diff: -12.25
SEA Pythag: 64.63 | Implied: 54.34 | Diff: 10.29

CLE PitchP: 40.58 | Implied: 47.62 | Diff: -7.04
SEA PitchP: 59.42 | Implied: 54.34 | Diff: 5.08

Seattle (-119) Bet 23.92 to win 20.10

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Will ride the M's train again as the mispricing in Seattle continues.

6/29/14

Record: 136-129
Bankroll: 1100.09

Toronto (-129) Bet 22.00 to win 17.05
Baltimore (104) Bet 22.00 to win 22.88
Oakland (-118) Bet 22.00 to win 18.64

Spotlight Play:
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1:35 PM ET      Tampa Bay [A. Cobb] (-113) at Baltimore [M. Gonzalez] (104)      8.5

TBR Pythag: 38.92 | Implied: 53.05 | Diff: -14.13
BAL Pythag: 61.08 | Implied: 49.02 | Diff: 12.06

TBR PitchP: 40.11 | Implied: 53.05 | Diff: -12.94
BAL PitchP: 59.89 | Implied: 49.02 | Diff: 10.87

Baltimore (104) Bet 22.00 to win 22.88

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Rays get a slight nod on the pitching matchup but not enough to counter the overwhelming value presented by the O's.

6/30/14

Good luck Mr. E.

7/1/14

7/2/14

Mr. EC,

Was wondering how you decide which game to spotlight out of the, say, 4 or 5 games you post.

Is it the one with the most variance from the implied odds?

Not asking for trade secrets;  just curious.

Also, I sent you a friend request.  Would appreciate it if you'd accept.

Thanks,

Pat

7/3/14

Record: 141-138
Bankroll: 1046.11

Baltimore (105) Bet 20.92 to win 21.97
Oakland (-151) Bet 20.92 to win 13.85
LA Angels (-168) Bet 20.92 to win 12.45

Spotlight Play:
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10:05 PM ET      Houston [B. Oberholtzer] (155) at LA Angels [M. Shoemaker] (-168)      8.5

HOU Pythag: 30.41 | Implied: 39.22 | Diff: -8.81
LAA Pythag: 69.59 | Implied: 62.69 | Diff: 6.90

HOU PitchP: 30.53 | Implied: 39.22 | Diff: -8.69
LAA PitchP: 69.47 | Implied: 62.69 | Diff: 6.78

LA Angels (-168) Bet 20.92 to win 12.45

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Oberholtzer sits at the bottom of the less than inspiring Astros rotation and gets the red hot Angels returning home, where they have been dominant lately.

Buford, I generally spotlight the highest variance game but sometimes will feature games w/ particularly high or low odds to show that value can be obtained at any price level.