4:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox [H. Noesi] (115) at Houston [J. Cosart] (-124) 9
CHW Pythag: 60.39 | Implied: 46.51 | Diff: 13.88
HOU Pythag: 39.61 | Implied: 55.36 | Diff: -15.75
CHW PitchP: 59.71 | Implied: 46.51 | Diff: 13.20
HOU PitchP: 40.29 | Implied: 55.36 | Diff: -15.07
Chi. White Sox (115) Bet 17.30 to win 19.90
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Big advantage to the South Siders w/ the probabilities hovering at around 60%. Can't beat +115 odds when you have a 3 in 5 chance of winning ... and an Abreau. This one figures to be a slugfest - total of 9 looks very low.
0
5/17/14
Record: 45-48
Bankroll: 865.14
Chi. White Sox (115) Bet 17.30 to win 19.90
Oakland (-138) Bet 17.30 to win 12.54
Detroit (131) Bet 17.30 to win 22.66
Toronto (-106) Bet 17.30 to win 16.32
Colorado (-122) Bet 17.30 to win 14.18
Spotlight Play:
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4:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox [H. Noesi] (115) at Houston [J. Cosart] (-124) 9
CHW Pythag: 60.39 | Implied: 46.51 | Diff: 13.88
HOU Pythag: 39.61 | Implied: 55.36 | Diff: -15.75
CHW PitchP: 59.71 | Implied: 46.51 | Diff: 13.20
HOU PitchP: 40.29 | Implied: 55.36 | Diff: -15.07
Chi. White Sox (115) Bet 17.30 to win 19.90
------------------------
Big advantage to the South Siders w/ the probabilities hovering at around 60%. Can't beat +115 odds when you have a 3 in 5 chance of winning ... and an Abreau. This one figures to be a slugfest - total of 9 looks very low.
I'm getting a starting bankroll of 882.06 for yesterday the 18th. Wins and losses add up, but I can't figure out what's off. You might want to double-check your results from the 17th.
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I'm getting a starting bankroll of 882.06 for yesterday the 18th. Wins and losses add up, but I can't figure out what's off. You might want to double-check your results from the 17th.
I have sent you a friend request. I may have similar data and more importantly a different way to utilize it. Most interested in your computer skills. I use bball reference daily but, haven't come across a coder that can spider. I do it all manually and it is excruciatingly slow. Please accept. Thanks.
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I have sent you a friend request. I may have similar data and more importantly a different way to utilize it. Most interested in your computer skills. I use bball reference daily but, haven't come across a coder that can spider. I do it all manually and it is excruciatingly slow. Please accept. Thanks.
I have sent you a friend request. I may have similar data and more importantly a different way to utilize it. Most interested in your computer skills. I use bball reference daily but, haven't come across a coder that can spider. I do it all manually and it is excruciatingly slow. Please accept. Thanks.
Added you - should be pretty easy to code up whatever you need since I already have the spiders.
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Quote Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:
I have sent you a friend request. I may have similar data and more importantly a different way to utilize it. Most interested in your computer skills. I use bball reference daily but, haven't come across a coder that can spider. I do it all manually and it is excruciatingly slow. Please accept. Thanks.
Added you - should be pretty easy to code up whatever you need since I already have the spiders.
After reading Moneyball by Lewis and Trading Bases by Peta, I decided to formulate my own version of sabermetrics in an attempt to beat the spread. My system downloads daily game, line and spread data from covers.com, then spiders baseball-reference.com to get detailed team and individual stats. For each game, lineup information is used to calculate the pythagorean probability of each team winning. A second pythagorean probability is then calculated weighing the starting and available bullpen pitchers. These probabilities are compared to the implied probabilities from the moneyline and bets are taken where there is an edge of several percentage points or more in both the team and the pitcher pythagorean probabilities.
All plays risk 2% of a starting bankroll of $1000.
Sample output of the system:
------------------------
7:05 PM ET Cleveland [Z. McAllister] (138) at LA Angels [C. Wilson] (-150) 8.5
CLE Pythag: 26.58 | Implied: 42.02 | Diff: -15.44
LAA Pythag: 73.42 | Implied: 60.00 | Diff: 13.42
CLE PitchP: 28.90 | Implied: 42.02 | Diff: -13.12
LAA PitchP: 71.10 | Implied: 60.00 | Diff: 11.10
LA Angels (-150) Bet 20 to win 13.33
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Here the Angels have a 73.42% chance of winning based on team/lineup stats and a 71.10% chance of winning based on starting and available pitchers. At -150, they have an implied probability of 60%. Since both the pythagorean probabilities for a win are much greater than the implied, the Angels are a play at -150.
When you say spiders baseballreference.com, what exactly does that mean?
Thanks for your insight on coding lingo.
Best of luck!
OC99
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Quote Originally Posted by MrECapps:
After reading Moneyball by Lewis and Trading Bases by Peta, I decided to formulate my own version of sabermetrics in an attempt to beat the spread. My system downloads daily game, line and spread data from covers.com, then spiders baseball-reference.com to get detailed team and individual stats. For each game, lineup information is used to calculate the pythagorean probability of each team winning. A second pythagorean probability is then calculated weighing the starting and available bullpen pitchers. These probabilities are compared to the implied probabilities from the moneyline and bets are taken where there is an edge of several percentage points or more in both the team and the pitcher pythagorean probabilities.
All plays risk 2% of a starting bankroll of $1000.
Sample output of the system:
------------------------
7:05 PM ET Cleveland [Z. McAllister] (138) at LA Angels [C. Wilson] (-150) 8.5
CLE Pythag: 26.58 | Implied: 42.02 | Diff: -15.44
LAA Pythag: 73.42 | Implied: 60.00 | Diff: 13.42
CLE PitchP: 28.90 | Implied: 42.02 | Diff: -13.12
LAA PitchP: 71.10 | Implied: 60.00 | Diff: 11.10
LA Angels (-150) Bet 20 to win 13.33
------------------------
Here the Angels have a 73.42% chance of winning based on team/lineup stats and a 71.10% chance of winning based on starting and available pitchers. At -150, they have an implied probability of 60%. Since both the pythagorean probabilities for a win are much greater than the implied, the Angels are a play at -150.
When you say spiders baseballreference.com, what exactly does that mean?
Spider = download. There are several pages of data available for each team every day. The main team page has all the traditional stats for the team and each player. If you click more stats next to batting, pitching and fielding, you'll get the more nerdy stats like adjusted batting runs or batting average on balls in play. My program downloads all the team data from all pages and parses it (ie, cleans it up and drops it into spreadsheet format).
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Spider = download. There are several pages of data available for each team every day. The main team page has all the traditional stats for the team and each player. If you click more stats next to batting, pitching and fielding, you'll get the more nerdy stats like adjusted batting runs or batting average on balls in play. My program downloads all the team data from all pages and parses it (ie, cleans it up and drops it into spreadsheet format).
10:10 PM ET Pittsburgh [G. Cole] (101) at LA Dodgers [D. Haren] (-109) 7
PIT Pythag: 37.97 | Implied: 49.75 | Diff: -11.78
LAD Pythag: 62.03 | Implied: 52.15 | Diff: 9.88
PIT PitchP: 36.45 | Implied: 49.75 | Diff: -13.30
LAD PitchP: 63.55 | Implied: 52.15 | Diff: 11.40
LA Dodgers (-109) Bet 19.81 to win 18.17
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Dojers have owned the Pirates at Chavez Ravine. Home edge should probably be magnified here as the Pirates have lost 9 straight when playing in LA, but it's already a play w/o the added mental factor.
0
5/29/14
Record: 76-72
Bankroll: 990.37
Oakland (-133) Bet 19.81 to win 14.89
LA Dodgers (-109) Bet 19.81 to win 18.17
Spotlight Play:
------------------------
10:10 PM ET Pittsburgh [G. Cole] (101) at LA Dodgers [D. Haren] (-109) 7
PIT Pythag: 37.97 | Implied: 49.75 | Diff: -11.78
LAD Pythag: 62.03 | Implied: 52.15 | Diff: 9.88
PIT PitchP: 36.45 | Implied: 49.75 | Diff: -13.30
LAD PitchP: 63.55 | Implied: 52.15 | Diff: 11.40
LA Dodgers (-109) Bet 19.81 to win 18.17
------------------------
Dojers have owned the Pirates at Chavez Ravine. Home edge should probably be magnified here as the Pirates have lost 9 straight when playing in LA, but it's already a play w/o the added mental factor.