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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Pythagorean Plays of the Day

    «First Previous 234 ... 678 Next Last»
    sabia
    MrECapps
    staf
    wudl83
    BigTenWatto
    ...
    Participants:
    Search model icon
    Views: 17561
    Posts: 194
    «First Previous 234 ... 678 Next Last»
     
    sabia
    sabia
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    Joined: Aug, 2008
    Posts: 10444
    Posted: May. 14, 2014 - 1:50 PM ET #26

    Mrecapps you have a good work but you need to take the weather in your formula,with sunny days more runs ,wind in no runs etc.....

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    Mrecapps you have a good work but you need to take the weather in your formula,with sunny days more runs ,wind in no runs etc.....

     
    MrECapps
    MrECapps
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    Posts: 1097
    Posted: May. 15, 2014 - 11:47 AM ET #27

    5/15/14

    Record: 37-45
    Bankroll: 792.35

    Minnesota (118) Bet 15.85 to win 18.70 
    LA Angels (-142) Bet 15.85 to win 11.16 
    Cincinnati (-143) Bet 15.85 to win 11.08 
    Chi. Cubs (175) Bet 15.85 to win 27.74 
    Cincinnati (-104) Bet 15.85 to win 15.24 

    Spotlight Play:
    ------------------------ 
    6:10 PM ET San Diego [T. Ross] (-104) at Cincinnati [J. Francis] (-104) 8 

    SDP Pythag: 35.24 | Implied: 50.98 | Diff: -15.74 
    CIN Pythag: 64.76 | Implied: 50.98 | Diff: 13.78 

    SDP PitchP: 29.17 | Implied: 50.98 | Diff: -21.81 
    CIN PitchP: 70.83 | Implied: 50.98 | Diff: 19.85 

    Cincinnati (-104) Bet 15.85 to win 15.24 

    ------------------------
    Reds are a play in both games of the DH, but they're getting much better value in the late game of the twin bill.
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    5/15/14

    Record: 37-45
    Bankroll: 792.35

    Minnesota (118) Bet 15.85 to win 18.70 
    LA Angels (-142) Bet 15.85 to win 11.16 
    Cincinnati (-143) Bet 15.85 to win 11.08 
    Chi. Cubs (175) Bet 15.85 to win 27.74 
    Cincinnati (-104) Bet 15.85 to win 15.24 

    Spotlight Play:
    ------------------------ 
    6:10 PM ET San Diego [T. Ross] (-104) at Cincinnati [J. Francis] (-104) 8 

    SDP Pythag: 35.24 | Implied: 50.98 | Diff: -15.74 
    CIN Pythag: 64.76 | Implied: 50.98 | Diff: 13.78 

    SDP PitchP: 29.17 | Implied: 50.98 | Diff: -21.81 
    CIN PitchP: 70.83 | Implied: 50.98 | Diff: 19.85 

    Cincinnati (-104) Bet 15.85 to win 15.24 

    ------------------------
    Reds are a play in both games of the DH, but they're getting much better value in the late game of the twin bill.
     
    MrECapps
    MrECapps
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    Posts: 1097
    Posted: May. 16, 2014 - 12:08 PM ET #28

    5/16/14

    Record: 40-47
    Bankroll: 801.59

    Oakland (-131) Bet 16.03 to win 12.24 
    Detroit (-102) Bet 16.03 to win 15.72 
    Toronto (153) Bet 16.03 to win 24.53 
    Chi. White Sox (-102) Bet 16.03 to win 15.72 
    LA Angels (-135) Bet 16.03 to win 11.87 
    Colorado (-141) Bet 16.03 to win 11.37 

    Spotlight Play:
    ------------------------ 
    8:40 PM ET San Diego [E. Stults] (130) at Colorado [J. De La Rosa] (-141) 10 

    SDP Pythag: 28.28 | Implied: 43.48 | Diff: -15.20 
    COL Pythag: 71.72 | Implied: 58.51 | Diff: 13.21 

    SDP PitchP: 25.73 | Implied: 43.48 | Diff: -17.75 
    COL PitchP: 74.27 | Implied: 58.51 | Diff: 15.76 

    Colorado (-141) Bet 16.03 to win 11.37 

    ------------------------ 
    Rockies have a huge advantage in a projected slugfest at home.  Pythag probabilities are both over 70%, meaning the line should be at least -233.
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    5/16/14

    Record: 40-47
    Bankroll: 801.59

    Oakland (-131) Bet 16.03 to win 12.24 
    Detroit (-102) Bet 16.03 to win 15.72 
    Toronto (153) Bet 16.03 to win 24.53 
    Chi. White Sox (-102) Bet 16.03 to win 15.72 
    LA Angels (-135) Bet 16.03 to win 11.87 
    Colorado (-141) Bet 16.03 to win 11.37 

    Spotlight Play:
    ------------------------ 
    8:40 PM ET San Diego [E. Stults] (130) at Colorado [J. De La Rosa] (-141) 10 

    SDP Pythag: 28.28 | Implied: 43.48 | Diff: -15.20 
    COL Pythag: 71.72 | Implied: 58.51 | Diff: 13.21 

    SDP PitchP: 25.73 | Implied: 43.48 | Diff: -17.75 
    COL PitchP: 74.27 | Implied: 58.51 | Diff: 15.76 

    Colorado (-141) Bet 16.03 to win 11.37 

    ------------------------ 
    Rockies have a huge advantage in a projected slugfest at home.  Pythag probabilities are both over 70%, meaning the line should be at least -233.
     
    MrECapps
    MrECapps
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    Posts: 1097
    Posted: May. 17, 2014 - 12:01 PM ET #29

    5/17/14

    Record: 45-48
    Bankroll: 865.14

    Chi. White Sox (115) Bet 17.30 to win 19.90 
    Oakland (-138) Bet 17.30 to win 12.54 
    Detroit (131) Bet 17.30 to win 22.66 
    Toronto (-106) Bet 17.30 to win 16.32 
    Colorado (-122) Bet 17.30 to win 14.18 

    Spotlight Play:
    ------------------------ 
    4:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox [H. Noesi] (115) at Houston [J. Cosart] (-124) 9 

    CHW Pythag: 60.39 | Implied: 46.51 | Diff: 13.88 
    HOU Pythag: 39.61 | Implied: 55.36 | Diff: -15.75 

    CHW PitchP: 59.71 | Implied: 46.51 | Diff: 13.20 
    HOU PitchP: 40.29 | Implied: 55.36 | Diff: -15.07 

    Chi. White Sox (115) Bet 17.30 to win 19.90 

    ------------------------ 
    Big advantage to the South Siders w/ the probabilities hovering at around 60%.  Can't beat +115 odds when you have a 3 in 5 chance of winning ... and an Abreau.  This one figures to be a slugfest - total of 9 looks very low.
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    5/17/14

    Record: 45-48
    Bankroll: 865.14

    Chi. White Sox (115) Bet 17.30 to win 19.90 
    Oakland (-138) Bet 17.30 to win 12.54 
    Detroit (131) Bet 17.30 to win 22.66 
    Toronto (-106) Bet 17.30 to win 16.32 
    Colorado (-122) Bet 17.30 to win 14.18 

    Spotlight Play:
    ------------------------ 
    4:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox [H. Noesi] (115) at Houston [J. Cosart] (-124) 9 

    CHW Pythag: 60.39 | Implied: 46.51 | Diff: 13.88 
    HOU Pythag: 39.61 | Implied: 55.36 | Diff: -15.75 

    CHW PitchP: 59.71 | Implied: 46.51 | Diff: 13.20 
    HOU PitchP: 40.29 | Implied: 55.36 | Diff: -15.07 

    Chi. White Sox (115) Bet 17.30 to win 19.90 

    ------------------------ 
    Big advantage to the South Siders w/ the probabilities hovering at around 60%.  Can't beat +115 odds when you have a 3 in 5 chance of winning ... and an Abreau.  This one figures to be a slugfest - total of 9 looks very low.
     
    MrECapps
    MrECapps
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    Posts: 1097
    Posted: May. 18, 2014 - 12:37 PM ET #30

    5/18/14

    Record: 48-50
    Bankroll: 873.58

    Oakland (-120) Bet 17.47 to win 14.56 
    Chi. White Sox (104) Bet 17.47 to win 18.17 
    LA Angels (115) Bet 17.47 to win 20.09 
    Detroit (106) Bet 17.47 to win 18.52 
    Colorado (-140) Bet 17.47 to win 12.48 

    Spotlight Play:
    ------------------------ 
    1:05 PM ET Oakland [J. Chavez] (-120) at Cleveland [J. Masterson] (111) 7.5 

    OAK Pythag: 70.46 | Implied: 54.55 | Diff: 15.91 
    CLE Pythag: 29.54 | Implied: 47.39 | Diff: -17.85 

    OAK PitchP: 72.18 | Implied: 54.55 | Diff: 17.63 
    CLE PitchP: 27.82 | Implied: 47.39 | Diff: -19.57 

    Oakland (-120) Bet 17.47 to win 14.56 

    ------------------------ 
    A's getting no respect at the betting window.  I'll take -120 with a 7/10 chance of winning as often as I can get it.
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    5/18/14

    Record: 48-50
    Bankroll: 873.58

    Oakland (-120) Bet 17.47 to win 14.56 
    Chi. White Sox (104) Bet 17.47 to win 18.17 
    LA Angels (115) Bet 17.47 to win 20.09 
    Detroit (106) Bet 17.47 to win 18.52 
    Colorado (-140) Bet 17.47 to win 12.48 

    Spotlight Play:
    ------------------------ 
    1:05 PM ET Oakland [J. Chavez] (-120) at Cleveland [J. Masterson] (111) 7.5 

    OAK Pythag: 70.46 | Implied: 54.55 | Diff: 15.91 
    CLE Pythag: 29.54 | Implied: 47.39 | Diff: -17.85 

    OAK PitchP: 72.18 | Implied: 54.55 | Diff: 17.63 
    CLE PitchP: 27.82 | Implied: 47.39 | Diff: -19.57 

    Oakland (-120) Bet 17.47 to win 14.56 

    ------------------------ 
    A's getting no respect at the betting window.  I'll take -120 with a 7/10 chance of winning as often as I can get it.
     
    staf
    staf
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    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2007
    Posts: 132
    Posted: May. 19, 2014 - 9:34 AM ET #31

    I'm getting a starting bankroll of 882.06 for yesterday the 18th.
    Wins and losses add up, but I can't figure out what's off.
    You might want to double-check your results from the 17th.
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    I'm getting a starting bankroll of 882.06 for yesterday the 18th.
    Wins and losses add up, but I can't figure out what's off.
    You might want to double-check your results from the 17th.
     
    MrECapps
    MrECapps
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    Posts: 1097
    Posted: May. 19, 2014 - 3:18 PM ET #32

    882.06 is correct.  My mistake.
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    882.06 is correct.  My mistake.
     
    MrECapps
    MrECapps
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    Posts: 1097
    Posted: May. 19, 2014 - 3:42 PM ET #33

    5/19/14

    Record: 52-51
    Bankroll: 930.24

    Detroit (104) Bet 18.60 to win 19.34 
    LA Angels (-183) Bet 18.60 to win 10.16 

    Spotlight Play:
    ------------------------ 
    7:05 PM ET Detroit [D. Smyly] (104) at Cleveland [C. Kluber] (-113) 7 

    DET Pythag: 67.15 | Implied: 49.02 | Diff: 18.13 
    CLE Pythag: 32.85 | Implied: 53.05 | Diff: -20.20 

    DET PitchP: 69.97 | Implied: 49.02 | Diff: 20.95 
    CLE PitchP: 30.03 | Implied: 53.05 | Diff: -23.02 

    Detroit (104) Bet 18.60 to win 19.34 

    ------------------------ 
    Tribe posted at slight favs even though the pythag probabilities are well above 2/3 in favor of the Tigers.  No brainer.
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    5/19/14

    Record: 52-51
    Bankroll: 930.24

    Detroit (104) Bet 18.60 to win 19.34 
    LA Angels (-183) Bet 18.60 to win 10.16 

    Spotlight Play:
    ------------------------ 
    7:05 PM ET Detroit [D. Smyly] (104) at Cleveland [C. Kluber] (-113) 7 

    DET Pythag: 67.15 | Implied: 49.02 | Diff: 18.13 
    CLE Pythag: 32.85 | Implied: 53.05 | Diff: -20.20 

    DET PitchP: 69.97 | Implied: 49.02 | Diff: 20.95 
    CLE PitchP: 30.03 | Implied: 53.05 | Diff: -23.02 

    Detroit (104) Bet 18.60 to win 19.34 

    ------------------------ 
    Tribe posted at slight favs even though the pythag probabilities are well above 2/3 in favor of the Tigers.  No brainer.
     
    MrECapps
    MrECapps
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    Joined: Jan, 2008
    Posts: 1097
    Posted: May. 20, 2014 - 3:34 PM ET #34

    5/20/2014

    Record: 52-53
    Bankroll: 893.04

    Toronto (126) Bet 17.86 to win 22.50 
    Oakland (-121) Bet 17.86 to win 14.76 
    Miami (-102) Bet 17.86 to win 17.51 
    St. Louis (-180) Bet 17.86 to win 9.92 
    Chi. Cubs (151) Bet 17.86 to win 26.97 
    Minnesota (154) Bet 17.86 to win 27.50 

    Spotlight Play: 
    ------------------------ 
    8:15 PM ET Arizona [B. Arroyo] (165) at St. Louis [A. Wainwright] (-180) 7 

    ARI Pythag: 30.46 | Implied: 37.74 | Diff: -7.28 
    STL Pythag: 69.54 | Implied: 64.29 | Diff: 5.25 

    ARI PitchP: 27.24 | Implied: 37.74 | Diff: -10.50 
    STL PitchP: 72.76 | Implied: 64.29 | Diff: 8.47 

    St. Louis (-180) Bet 17.86 to win 9.92 

    ------------------------ 
    Cards are big chalk at home but the probabilities indicate that they should be even bigger favorites, esp w/ Wainwright on the hill.
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    5/20/2014

    Record: 52-53
    Bankroll: 893.04

    Toronto (126) Bet 17.86 to win 22.50 
    Oakland (-121) Bet 17.86 to win 14.76 
    Miami (-102) Bet 17.86 to win 17.51 
    St. Louis (-180) Bet 17.86 to win 9.92 
    Chi. Cubs (151) Bet 17.86 to win 26.97 
    Minnesota (154) Bet 17.86 to win 27.50 

    Spotlight Play: 
    ------------------------ 
    8:15 PM ET Arizona [B. Arroyo] (165) at St. Louis [A. Wainwright] (-180) 7 

    ARI Pythag: 30.46 | Implied: 37.74 | Diff: -7.28 
    STL Pythag: 69.54 | Implied: 64.29 | Diff: 5.25 

    ARI PitchP: 27.24 | Implied: 37.74 | Diff: -10.50 
    STL PitchP: 72.76 | Implied: 64.29 | Diff: 8.47 

    St. Louis (-180) Bet 17.86 to win 9.92 

    ------------------------ 
    Cards are big chalk at home but the probabilities indicate that they should be even bigger favorites, esp w/ Wainwright on the hill.
     
    MrECapps
    MrECapps
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    Joined: Jan, 2008
    Posts: 1097
    Posted: May. 21, 2014 - 11:18 AM ET #35

    5/21/2014

    Record: 57-54
    Bankroll: 976.83

    Seattle (126) Bet 19.54 to win 24.62 
    Toronto (114) Bet 19.54 to win 22.28 
    Oakland (-103) Bet 19.54 to win 18.97 
    LA Angels (-183) Bet 19.54 to win 10.68 
    St. Louis (-160) Bet 19.54 to win 12.21 
    Minnesota (128) Bet 19.54 to win 25.01 

    Spotlight Play:
    ------------------------ 
    8:15 PM ET Arizona [B. McCarthy] (147) at St. Louis [M. Wacha] (-160) 7 

    ARI Pythag: 28.44 | Implied: 40.49 | Diff: -12.05 
    STL Pythag: 71.56 | Implied: 61.54 | Diff: 10.02 

    ARI PitchP: 26.01 | Implied: 40.49 | Diff: -14.48 
    STL PitchP: 73.99 | Implied: 61.54 | Diff: 12.45 

    St. Louis (-160) Bet 19.54 to win 12.21 

    ------------------------ 
    Once again, the chalk looks like the the easiest money on the board.  Don't see how the Cards aren't -250 in this one.

    As a side note, I'll be in Vegas this weekend.  Staying at Hard Rock.

    Fri: Dinner STK at Cosmo followed by Hyde at Bellagio
    Sat: Guns n Roses at the Joint at Hard Rock

    Will be poolside, or raiding the blackjack and crabs tables when not at the sportsbook at Hard Rock.  
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    5/21/2014

    Record: 57-54
    Bankroll: 976.83

    Seattle (126) Bet 19.54 to win 24.62 
    Toronto (114) Bet 19.54 to win 22.28 
    Oakland (-103) Bet 19.54 to win 18.97 
    LA Angels (-183) Bet 19.54 to win 10.68 
    St. Louis (-160) Bet 19.54 to win 12.21 
    Minnesota (128) Bet 19.54 to win 25.01 

    Spotlight Play:
    ------------------------ 
    8:15 PM ET Arizona [B. McCarthy] (147) at St. Louis [M. Wacha] (-160) 7 

    ARI Pythag: 28.44 | Implied: 40.49 | Diff: -12.05 
    STL Pythag: 71.56 | Implied: 61.54 | Diff: 10.02 

    ARI PitchP: 26.01 | Implied: 40.49 | Diff: -14.48 
    STL PitchP: 73.99 | Implied: 61.54 | Diff: 12.45 

    St. Louis (-160) Bet 19.54 to win 12.21 

    ------------------------ 
    Once again, the chalk looks like the the easiest money on the board.  Don't see how the Cards aren't -250 in this one.

    As a side note, I'll be in Vegas this weekend.  Staying at Hard Rock.

    Fri: Dinner STK at Cosmo followed by Hyde at Bellagio
    Sat: Guns n Roses at the Joint at Hard Rock

    Will be poolside, or raiding the blackjack and crabs tables when not at the sportsbook at Hard Rock.  
     
    wudl83
    wudl83
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    Posts: 139
    Posted: May. 22, 2014 - 6:14 AM ET #36

    As I see you should have made profits with winning nearly all bets yesterday.

    Have fun @ Vegas!
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    As I see you should have made profits with winning nearly all bets yesterday.

    Have fun @ Vegas!
     
    MrECapps
    MrECapps
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    Posts: 1097
    Posted: May. 22, 2014 - 12:17 PM ET #37

    5/22/14

    Record: 62-55
    Bankroll: 1046.44

    Detroit (112) Bet 20.93 to win 23.44 
    Toronto (140) Bet 20.93 to win 29.30 
    Oakland (-110) Bet 20.93 to win 19.03 
    Seattle (-154) Bet 20.93 to win 13.59 
    Miami (104) Bet 20.93 to win 21.77 
    Washington (111) Bet 20.93 to win 23.23 
    NY Mets (138) Bet 20.93 to win 28.88 
    St. Louis (-146) Bet 20.93 to win 14.34 
    Chi. Cubs (137) Bet 20.93 to win 28.67 

    Spotlight Play: 
    ------------------------ 
    1:08 PM ET Texas [Y. Darvish] (-121) at Detroit [R. Ray] (112) 7.5 

    TEX Pythag: 26.33 | Implied: 54.75 | Diff: -28.42 
    DET Pythag: 73.67 | Implied: 47.17 | Diff: 26.50 

    TEX PitchP: 17.87 | Implied: 54.75 | Diff: -36.88 
    DET PitchP: 82.13 | Implied: 47.17 | Diff: 34.96 

    Detroit (112) Bet 20.93 to win 23.44 

    ------------------------ 
    Despite probabilities showing the MoTown Maulers as prohibitive favorites - even vs Darvish - they are home dogs in one today's early games.  

    Vegas tomorrow - can't wait to run a live cash bankroll for the weekend!
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    5/22/14

    Record: 62-55
    Bankroll: 1046.44

    Detroit (112) Bet 20.93 to win 23.44 
    Toronto (140) Bet 20.93 to win 29.30 
    Oakland (-110) Bet 20.93 to win 19.03 
    Seattle (-154) Bet 20.93 to win 13.59 
    Miami (104) Bet 20.93 to win 21.77 
    Washington (111) Bet 20.93 to win 23.23 
    NY Mets (138) Bet 20.93 to win 28.88 
    St. Louis (-146) Bet 20.93 to win 14.34 
    Chi. Cubs (137) Bet 20.93 to win 28.67 

    Spotlight Play: 
    ------------------------ 
    1:08 PM ET Texas [Y. Darvish] (-121) at Detroit [R. Ray] (112) 7.5 

    TEX Pythag: 26.33 | Implied: 54.75 | Diff: -28.42 
    DET Pythag: 73.67 | Implied: 47.17 | Diff: 26.50 

    TEX PitchP: 17.87 | Implied: 54.75 | Diff: -36.88 
    DET PitchP: 82.13 | Implied: 47.17 | Diff: 34.96 

    Detroit (112) Bet 20.93 to win 23.44 

    ------------------------ 
    Despite probabilities showing the MoTown Maulers as prohibitive favorites - even vs Darvish - they are home dogs in one today's early games.  

    Vegas tomorrow - can't wait to run a live cash bankroll for the weekend!
     
    MrECapps
    MrECapps
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    Posts: 1097
    Posted: May. 23, 2014 - 3:12 PM ET #38

    5/23/14

    Record: 68-58
    Bankroll: 1120.20

    Oakland (-122) Bet 22.40 to win 18.36 
    Detroit (-174) Bet 22.40 to win 12.87 
    Chi. White Sox (126) Bet 22.40 to win 28.22 
    Philadelphia (161) Bet 22.40 to win 36.06 
    NY Mets (-125) Bet 22.40 to win 17.92 
    Miami (-108) Bet 22.40 to win 20.74 
    Chi. Cubs (122) Bet 22.40 to win 27.33 

    ALL PLAYS ARE SPOTLIGHT PLAYS - I am in Vegas!!!
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    5/23/14

    Record: 68-58
    Bankroll: 1120.20

    Oakland (-122) Bet 22.40 to win 18.36 
    Detroit (-174) Bet 22.40 to win 12.87 
    Chi. White Sox (126) Bet 22.40 to win 28.22 
    Philadelphia (161) Bet 22.40 to win 36.06 
    NY Mets (-125) Bet 22.40 to win 17.92 
    Miami (-108) Bet 22.40 to win 20.74 
    Chi. Cubs (122) Bet 22.40 to win 27.33 

    ALL PLAYS ARE SPOTLIGHT PLAYS - I am in Vegas!!!
     
    BigTenWatto
    BigTenWatto
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    Posts: 818
    Posted: May. 25, 2014 - 4:46 PM ET #39

    I have sent you a friend request. I may have similar data and more importantly a different way to utilize it. Most interested in your computer skills. I use bball reference daily but, haven't come across a coder that can spider. I do it all manually and it is excruciatingly slow. Please accept. Thanks.
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    I have sent you a friend request. I may have similar data and more importantly a different way to utilize it. Most interested in your computer skills. I use bball reference daily but, haven't come across a coder that can spider. I do it all manually and it is excruciatingly slow. Please accept. Thanks.
     
    MrECapps
    MrECapps
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    Joined: Jan, 2008
    Posts: 1097
    Posted: May. 26, 2014 - 11:59 AM ET #40

    5/26/14

    Record: 70-62
    Bankroll: 1071.69

    Kansas City (-153) Bet 21.43 to win 14.01 
    NY Mets (104) Bet 21.43 to win 22.29 
    Colorado (104) Bet 21.43 to win 22.29 
    San Diego (118) Bet 21.43 to win 25.29 
    Atlanta (-126) Bet 21.43 to win 17.01 

    Spotlight Play:
    ------------------------ 
    8:10 PM ET San Diego [T. Ross] (118) at Arizona [B. McCarthy] (-128) 8.5 

    SDP Pythag: 54.03 | Implied: 45.87 | Diff: 8.16 
    ARI Pythag: 45.97 | Implied: 56.14 | Diff: -10.17 

    SDP PitchP: 58.88 | Implied: 45.87 | Diff: 13.01 
    ARI PitchP: 41.12 | Implied: 56.14 | Diff: -15.02 

    San Diego (118) Bet 21.43 to win 25.29 

    ------------------------ 
    Pads should be the favorite here so it's an automatic no brainer take them at + odds.

    No posts for a few days as we ran Vegas ragged - system did great Sat and Sun but of course won't count the non posted plays.
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    5/26/14

    Record: 70-62
    Bankroll: 1071.69

    Kansas City (-153) Bet 21.43 to win 14.01 
    NY Mets (104) Bet 21.43 to win 22.29 
    Colorado (104) Bet 21.43 to win 22.29 
    San Diego (118) Bet 21.43 to win 25.29 
    Atlanta (-126) Bet 21.43 to win 17.01 

    Spotlight Play:
    ------------------------ 
    8:10 PM ET San Diego [T. Ross] (118) at Arizona [B. McCarthy] (-128) 8.5 

    SDP Pythag: 54.03 | Implied: 45.87 | Diff: 8.16 
    ARI Pythag: 45.97 | Implied: 56.14 | Diff: -10.17 

    SDP PitchP: 58.88 | Implied: 45.87 | Diff: 13.01 
    ARI PitchP: 41.12 | Implied: 56.14 | Diff: -15.02 

    San Diego (118) Bet 21.43 to win 25.29 

    ------------------------ 
    Pads should be the favorite here so it's an automatic no brainer take them at + odds.

    No posts for a few days as we ran Vegas ragged - system did great Sat and Sun but of course won't count the non posted plays.
     
    MrECapps
    MrECapps
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    Posted: May. 27, 2014 - 3:24 PM ET #41

    5/27/14

    Record: 70-67
    Bankroll: 964.54

    Toronto (-113) Bet 19.29 to win 17.07 
    Minnesota (132) Bet 19.29 to win 25.46 
    Oakland (-129) Bet 19.29 to win 14.95 
    Atlanta (-101) Bet 19.29 to win 19.10 

    Spotlight Play:
    ------------------------ 
    7:10 PM ET Boston [J. Lester] (-107) at Atlanta [A. Harang] (-101) 7 

    BOS Pythag: 37.46 | Implied: 51.69 | Diff: -14.23 
    ATL Pythag: 62.54 | Implied: 50.25 | Diff: 12.29 

    BOS PitchP: 43.31 | Implied: 51.69 | Diff: -8.38 
    ATL PitchP: 56.69 | Implied: 50.25 | Diff: 6.44 

    Atlanta (-101) Bet 19.29 to win 19.10 

    ------------------------ 
    Sox lineup takes a hit w/ no DH and that hit is magnified vs the Braves impressive staff.  
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    5/27/14

    Record: 70-67
    Bankroll: 964.54

    Toronto (-113) Bet 19.29 to win 17.07 
    Minnesota (132) Bet 19.29 to win 25.46 
    Oakland (-129) Bet 19.29 to win 14.95 
    Atlanta (-101) Bet 19.29 to win 19.10 

    Spotlight Play:
    ------------------------ 
    7:10 PM ET Boston [J. Lester] (-107) at Atlanta [A. Harang] (-101) 7 

    BOS Pythag: 37.46 | Implied: 51.69 | Diff: -14.23 
    ATL Pythag: 62.54 | Implied: 50.25 | Diff: 12.29 

    BOS PitchP: 43.31 | Implied: 51.69 | Diff: -8.38 
    ATL PitchP: 56.69 | Implied: 50.25 | Diff: 6.44 

    Atlanta (-101) Bet 19.29 to win 19.10 

    ------------------------ 
    Sox lineup takes a hit w/ no DH and that hit is magnified vs the Braves impressive staff.  
     
    MrECapps
    MrECapps
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    Posts: 1097
    Posted: May. 27, 2014 - 3:33 PM ET #42

    Quote Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:

    I have sent you a friend request. I may have similar data and more importantly a different way to utilize it. Most interested in your computer skills. I use bball reference daily but, haven't come across a coder that can spider. I do it all manually and it is excruciatingly slow. Please accept. Thanks.

    Added you - should be pretty easy to code up whatever you need since I already have the spiders.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:

    I have sent you a friend request. I may have similar data and more importantly a different way to utilize it. Most interested in your computer skills. I use bball reference daily but, haven't come across a coder that can spider. I do it all manually and it is excruciatingly slow. Please accept. Thanks.

    Added you - should be pretty easy to code up whatever you need since I already have the spiders.
     
    oilcountry99
    oilcountry99
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    Posts: 1304
    Posted: May. 27, 2014 - 3:55 PM ET #43

    Quote Originally Posted by MrECapps:

    After reading Moneyball by Lewis and Trading Bases by Peta, I decided to formulate my own version of sabermetrics in an attempt to beat the spread.  My system downloads daily game, line and spread data from covers.com, then spiders baseball-reference.com to get detailed team and individual stats.  For each game, lineup information is used to calculate the pythagorean probability of each team winning.  A second pythagorean probability is then calculated weighing the starting and available bullpen pitchers.  These probabilities are compared to the implied probabilities from the moneyline and bets are taken where there is an edge of several percentage points or more in both the team and the pitcher pythagorean probabilities.  

    All plays risk 2% of a starting bankroll of $1000.

    Sample output of the system:

    ------------------------ 
    7:05 PM ET Cleveland [Z. McAllister] (138) at LA Angels [C. Wilson] (-150) 8.5 

    CLE Pythag: 26.58 | Implied: 42.02 | Diff: -15.44 
    LAA Pythag: 73.42 | Implied: 60.00 | Diff: 13.42 

    CLE PitchP: 28.90 | Implied: 42.02 | Diff: -13.12 
    LAA PitchP: 71.10 | Implied: 60.00 | Diff: 11.10 

    LA Angels (-150) Bet 20 to win 13.33 

    ------------------------ 

    Here the Angels have a 73.42% chance of winning based on team/lineup stats and a 71.10% chance of winning based on starting and available pitchers.  At -150, they have an implied probability of 60%.  Since both the pythagorean probabilities for a win are much greater than the implied, the Angels are a play at -150.


    When you say spiders baseballreference.com, what exactly does that mean?  

    Thanks for your insight on coding lingo.

    Best of luck!
    OC99
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrECapps:

    After reading Moneyball by Lewis and Trading Bases by Peta, I decided to formulate my own version of sabermetrics in an attempt to beat the spread.  My system downloads daily game, line and spread data from covers.com, then spiders baseball-reference.com to get detailed team and individual stats.  For each game, lineup information is used to calculate the pythagorean probability of each team winning.  A second pythagorean probability is then calculated weighing the starting and available bullpen pitchers.  These probabilities are compared to the implied probabilities from the moneyline and bets are taken where there is an edge of several percentage points or more in both the team and the pitcher pythagorean probabilities.  

    All plays risk 2% of a starting bankroll of $1000.

    Sample output of the system:

    ------------------------ 
    7:05 PM ET Cleveland [Z. McAllister] (138) at LA Angels [C. Wilson] (-150) 8.5 

    CLE Pythag: 26.58 | Implied: 42.02 | Diff: -15.44 
    LAA Pythag: 73.42 | Implied: 60.00 | Diff: 13.42 

    CLE PitchP: 28.90 | Implied: 42.02 | Diff: -13.12 
    LAA PitchP: 71.10 | Implied: 60.00 | Diff: 11.10 

    LA Angels (-150) Bet 20 to win 13.33 

    ------------------------ 

    Here the Angels have a 73.42% chance of winning based on team/lineup stats and a 71.10% chance of winning based on starting and available pitchers.  At -150, they have an implied probability of 60%.  Since both the pythagorean probabilities for a win are much greater than the implied, the Angels are a play at -150.


    When you say spiders baseballreference.com, what exactly does that mean?  

    Thanks for your insight on coding lingo.

    Best of luck!
    OC99
     
    MrECapps
    MrECapps
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    Posted: May. 27, 2014 - 4:22 PM ET #44

    Spider = download.  There are several pages of data available for each team every day.  The main team page has all the traditional stats for the team and each player.  If you click more stats next to batting, pitching and fielding, you'll get the more nerdy stats like adjusted batting runs or batting average on balls in play.  My program downloads all the team data from all pages and parses it (ie, cleans it up and drops it into spreadsheet format).
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    Spider = download.  There are several pages of data available for each team every day.  The main team page has all the traditional stats for the team and each player.  If you click more stats next to batting, pitching and fielding, you'll get the more nerdy stats like adjusted batting runs or batting average on balls in play.  My program downloads all the team data from all pages and parses it (ie, cleans it up and drops it into spreadsheet format).
     
    oilcountry99
    oilcountry99
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    Posted: May. 27, 2014 - 8:46 PM ET #45

    Sounds like you have a great tool for handicapping! Is it excel based?
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    Sounds like you have a great tool for handicapping! Is it excel based?
     
    MrECapps
    MrECapps
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    Posted: May. 28, 2014 - 11:22 AM ET #46

    Python based but it's easy to output the data into any format.  For example, I could easily make a .csv file if I wanted to bring the data into excel.
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    Python based but it's easy to output the data into any format.  For example, I could easily make a .csv file if I wanted to bring the data into excel.
     
    oilcountry99
    oilcountry99
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    Posted: May. 28, 2014 - 11:32 AM ET #47

    MrE

    Sent you a friend request, to ask a couple questions.

    OC99
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    MrE

    Sent you a friend request, to ask a couple questions.

    OC99
     
    MrECapps
    MrECapps
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    Posted: May. 28, 2014 - 12:11 PM ET #48

    5/28/14

    Record: 72-69
    Bankroll: 968.49

    Toronto (100) Bet 19.37 to win 19.37 
    Chi. White Sox (-106) Bet 19.37 to win 18.27 
    Oakland (-121) Bet 19.37 to win 16.01 
    LA Angels (119) Bet 19.37 to win 23.05 
    Miami (136) Bet 19.37 to win 26.34 
    Atlanta (128) Bet 19.37 to win 24.79 
    St. Louis (-125) Bet 19.37 to win 15.50 

    Spotlight Play: 
    ------------------------ 
    7:07 PM ET Tampa Bay [C. Archer] (-108) at Toronto [L. Hendriks] (100) 9.5 

    TBR Pythag: 35.19 | Implied: 51.92 | Diff: -16.73 
    TOR Pythag: 64.81 | Implied: 50.00 | Diff: 14.81 

    TBR PitchP: 26.64 | Implied: 51.92 | Diff: -25.28 
    TOR PitchP: 73.36 | Implied: 50.00 | Diff: 23.36 

    Toronto (100) Bet 19.37 to win 19.37 

    ------------------------ 
    Really like the J's at home vs the underperforming and underwhelming Rays.
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    5/28/14

    Record: 72-69
    Bankroll: 968.49

    Toronto (100) Bet 19.37 to win 19.37 
    Chi. White Sox (-106) Bet 19.37 to win 18.27 
    Oakland (-121) Bet 19.37 to win 16.01 
    LA Angels (119) Bet 19.37 to win 23.05 
    Miami (136) Bet 19.37 to win 26.34 
    Atlanta (128) Bet 19.37 to win 24.79 
    St. Louis (-125) Bet 19.37 to win 15.50 

    Spotlight Play: 
    ------------------------ 
    7:07 PM ET Tampa Bay [C. Archer] (-108) at Toronto [L. Hendriks] (100) 9.5 

    TBR Pythag: 35.19 | Implied: 51.92 | Diff: -16.73 
    TOR Pythag: 64.81 | Implied: 50.00 | Diff: 14.81 

    TBR PitchP: 26.64 | Implied: 51.92 | Diff: -25.28 
    TOR PitchP: 73.36 | Implied: 50.00 | Diff: 23.36 

    Toronto (100) Bet 19.37 to win 19.37 

    ------------------------ 
    Really like the J's at home vs the underperforming and underwhelming Rays.
     
    MrECapps
    MrECapps
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    Posted: May. 29, 2014 - 12:57 PM ET #49

    5/29/14

    Record: 76-72
    Bankroll: 990.37

    Oakland (-133) Bet 19.81 to win 14.89 
    LA Dodgers (-109) Bet 19.81 to win 18.17 

    Spotlight Play:
    ------------------------ 
    10:10 PM ET Pittsburgh [G. Cole] (101) at LA Dodgers [D. Haren] (-109) 7 

    PIT Pythag: 37.97 | Implied: 49.75 | Diff: -11.78 
    LAD Pythag: 62.03 | Implied: 52.15 | Diff: 9.88 

    PIT PitchP: 36.45 | Implied: 49.75 | Diff: -13.30 
    LAD PitchP: 63.55 | Implied: 52.15 | Diff: 11.40 

    LA Dodgers (-109) Bet 19.81 to win 18.17 

    ------------------------ 
    Dojers have owned the Pirates at Chavez Ravine.  Home edge should probably be magnified here as the Pirates have lost 9 straight when playing in LA, but it's already a play w/o the added mental factor.
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    5/29/14

    Record: 76-72
    Bankroll: 990.37

    Oakland (-133) Bet 19.81 to win 14.89 
    LA Dodgers (-109) Bet 19.81 to win 18.17 

    Spotlight Play:
    ------------------------ 
    10:10 PM ET Pittsburgh [G. Cole] (101) at LA Dodgers [D. Haren] (-109) 7 

    PIT Pythag: 37.97 | Implied: 49.75 | Diff: -11.78 
    LAD Pythag: 62.03 | Implied: 52.15 | Diff: 9.88 

    PIT PitchP: 36.45 | Implied: 49.75 | Diff: -13.30 
    LAD PitchP: 63.55 | Implied: 52.15 | Diff: 11.40 

    LA Dodgers (-109) Bet 19.81 to win 18.17 

    ------------------------ 
    Dojers have owned the Pirates at Chavez Ravine.  Home edge should probably be magnified here as the Pirates have lost 9 straight when playing in LA, but it's already a play w/o the added mental factor.
     
     
    MrECapps
    MrECapps
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    Posted: May. 30, 2014 - 2:55 PM ET #50

    5/30/14

    Record: 76-74
    Bankroll: 950.75

    Boston (120) Bet 19.02 to win 22.82 
    Oakland (-119) Bet 19.02 to win 15.98 
    Miami (115) Bet 19.02 to win 21.87 
    Colorado (156) Bet 19.02 to win 29.67 
    Chi. White Sox (111) Bet 19.02 to win 21.11 

    Spotlight Play:
    ------------------------ 
    7:10 PM ET Tampa Bay [D. Price] (-130) at Boston [B. Workman] (120) 7.5 

    TBR Pythag: 44.02 | Implied: 56.52 | Diff: -12.50 
    BOS Pythag: 55.98 | Implied: 45.45 | Diff: 10.53 

    TBR PitchP: 37.05 | Implied: 56.52 | Diff: -19.47 
    BOS PitchP: 62.95 | Implied: 45.45 | Diff: 17.50 

    Boston (120) Bet 19.02 to win 22.82 

    ------------------------ 
    David Price has been consistently overpriced this year and today is no exception.  
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    5/30/14

    Record: 76-74
    Bankroll: 950.75

    Boston (120) Bet 19.02 to win 22.82 
    Oakland (-119) Bet 19.02 to win 15.98 
    Miami (115) Bet 19.02 to win 21.87 
    Colorado (156) Bet 19.02 to win 29.67 
    Chi. White Sox (111) Bet 19.02 to win 21.11 

    Spotlight Play:
    ------------------------ 
    7:10 PM ET Tampa Bay [D. Price] (-130) at Boston [B. Workman] (120) 7.5 

    TBR Pythag: 44.02 | Implied: 56.52 | Diff: -12.50 
    BOS Pythag: 55.98 | Implied: 45.45 | Diff: 10.53 

    TBR PitchP: 37.05 | Implied: 56.52 | Diff: -19.47 
    BOS PitchP: 62.95 | Implied: 45.45 | Diff: 17.50 

    Boston (120) Bet 19.02 to win 22.82 

    ------------------------ 
    David Price has been consistently overpriced this year and today is no exception.  
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