All Forums | Systems & Strategies

New YPPT Method

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 253699
Posts: 1286
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #151

10/14/09

Boise St. @ Tulsa

Boise St.    152 (R)   265 (P)  417 (TYDS)    13.0 YPPT

Tulsa          108 (R)   174 (P)  282 (TYDS)    19.0 YPPT

Projected Score

Boise St.     (32.1)   31

Tulsa           (14.8)   14

Note: I went back to the original simplified version of this formula.

PLAY: Boise St. - 9.5

GL

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 88
Posted: #152
I am new to this site, but I love the concept and will give it a try!!
 
Thanks.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 825
Posted: #153
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:

skan

I will explain using LA Monroes (P) vs Ark.St. (P) Def.

 LAM      210.0 (P)          (+4.2)                                                          Ark. St.  266.5 (P) DEF.  (+74.1)

210.0 + 266.5 = 476.5/ 2 =238.3

74.1 - 4.2 = 69.9/2 = 35.0 + 238.3 = 273.3 x .954 SOS = 260.7 (P)

GL





Hey I was trying to figure this out last night after I got back from class. I understand the (+4.2) etc, is the difference between LA monroes passing offense, and their opponents defenses average passing yards allowed? That stat is all of LA Monroes opponents averaged yards allowed? I couldn't seem to locate that anywhere in the stats box. Did you have to manually calculate that, or am I stupidly missing it somehow. Thanks in advance.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 14
Posted: #154
[Quote: Originally Posted by roughshod31]

10/14/09

Boise St. @ Tulsa

Boise St.    152 (R)   265 (P)  417 (TYDS)    13.0 YPPT

Tulsa          108 (R)   174 (P)  282 (TYDS)    19.0 YPPT

Projected Score

Boise St.     (32.1)   31

Tulsa           (14.8)   14

Note: I went back to the original simplified version of this formula.

PLAY: Boise St. - 9.5

GL

on your last post ark st game, where did you get the number (22.4), (6.3)etc.... can you please help me out, i have something wrong because my numbers for boise game are 30 - 17

 

/Quote]

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2008
Posts: 1
Posted: #155
I'm not sure if I'm doing this right but did some calculations on a spreadsheet for NFL Ravens vs Vikings.

raw numbers:
Viks 28
Ravs 22

I used home off and road def and vice versa instead of all games numbers.

I also added 2.39 to SOS for Viks (home field adv).

Can someone verify if I'm doing this correctly?

Thx for your help!
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 14
Posted: #156
Quote Originally Posted by lou4062:

Thanks again, roughshod!  Next week I will try to do this myself...lol  One thing about the min/stl game as far as sos.
 
On team rankings I see min as a 25.8 and stl as a 23.7 sos.
 
23.7/25.8 = 1.088 for min?
.088/2 = 1.044 for min and .956 for stl?
 
Maybe you are using a different site or I am doing something wrong?
 
Thanks again, for everything.

LOU4062...

the number 23.7/25.8 = 1.088 is from SAGARIN'S, but which number is which from the SAGARIN'S chart?

thanks

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 7
Posted: #157
Using this system, and keeping it standardized (ie, not worrying about double negatives, etc)
 
I come to:
 
Boise State: 32.18
Tulsa: 14.78
 
Same as roughshod.
 
I myself am playing Tulsa however lol
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #158

Full Math Original Version:

Boise St. 68.77 (SOS)    1.068

Tulsa       60.00 (SOS       .932

68.77 + 60.00 = 128.77 / 2 = 64.39

60.00 / 64.39 = .932 (Tulsa) 68.77 / 64.39 = 1.068 (Boise St.)

Boise (O)   191.6 (R) (+28.8)   247.8 (P) (+37.6)   10.9 YPPT (-1.3)

Tulsa  (D)   95.0   (R) (-31.1)    204.2 (P) (+6.5)     18.5 YPPT (-0.3)

Boise St.

191.6 - 31.1 = 160.5

95.0 + 28.8 = 123.8    

160.5 + 123.8 = 284.3 / 2 = 142.2 x 1.068 = 151.9 Rushing

247.8 + 6.5 = 254.3

204.2 + 37.6 = 241.8

254.3 + 241.8 = 496.1 / 2 = 248.1 x 1.068 = 265.0 Passing

416.9 Total Yds.

10.9 - 0.3 = 10.6

18.5 - 1.3 = 17.2

10.6 + 17.2 = 27.8 / 2 = 13.9 x .932 Tulsa's SOS = 13.0 YPPT

416.9 TYDS / 13.0 YPPT =  32.1 Projected Points


Tulsa

168.0 - 31.5 = 136.5

102.0 - 6.5 = 95.5

136.5 + 95.5 = 232.0 / 2 = 116 x .932 = 108.1 Rushing

246.2 - 52.9 = 193.3

171.8 + 7.5 = 179.3

193.3 + 179.3 = 372.6 / 2 = 186.3 x .932 = 173.6 Passing

281.7 Total Yds

12.6 + 2.8 = 15.4

19.0 + 1.2 = 20.2

15.4 + 20.2 = 35.6 / 2 = 17.8 x 1.068 Boise SOS = 19.0 YPPT

281.7 TYDS / 19.0 YPPT = 14.8 Projected Points

Hope this helps as this is the formula in its simplest form

GL

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 205
Posted: #159
THIS IS THE COOLEST POST I HAVE READ AT THIS SITE!!

I love it and want to learn this now. This is definitely more fun than doing a crossword at work!
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 825
Posted: #160
Okay perfect thanks alot. I've been looking for something like this to blend with my current handicapping methods. Hoptfully it works nicely.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 825
Posted: #161
I havent been able to access USATODAY.com since last night... Not sure why. Thats the only website that doesn't work
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 205
Posted: #162
https://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin.htm

Try that.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 825
Posted: #163
Yeah it doesnt work. I fucked with one of their telemarketers once, maybe they banned me . But really i have no idea, thats very strange.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 825
Posted: #164
If anybody is bored and wants to pull up the Bills/Jets SOS for me that would be greatly appreciated. I'm interested in seeing how this system compares to my usual handicapping methods.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 58
Posted: #165
So do we have to manually figure out the average yards allowed? cause that is the only thing i dont get
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 58
Posted: #166
jets 20.94
bills 19.61
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 825
Posted: #167
Great, thanks a ton.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #168

jimmy

No all of the information you need can be found at statfox.com on their matchup page.

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 14
Posted: #169
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:

Full Math Original Version:

Boise St. 68.77 (SOS)    1.068

Tulsa       60.00 (SOS       .932

68.77 + 60.00 = 128.77 / 2 = 64.39

60.00 / 64.39 = .932 (Tulsa) 68.77 / 64.39 = 1.068 (Boise St.)

Boise (O)   191.6 (R) (+28.8)   247.8 (P) (+37.6)   10.9 YPPT (-1.3)

Tulsa  (D)   95.0   (R) (-31.1)    204.2 (P) (+6.5)     18.5 YPPT (-0.3)

Boise St.

191.6 - 31.1 = 160.5

95.0 + 28.8 = 123.8    

160.5 + 123.8 = 284.3 / 2 = 142.2 x 1.068 = 151.9 Rushing

247.8 + 6.5 = 254.3

204.2 + 37.6 = 241.8

254.3 + 241.8 = 496.1 / 2 = 248.1 x 1.068 = 265.0 Passing

416.9 Total Yds.

10.9 - 0.3 = 10.6

18.5 - 1.3 = 17.2

10.6 + 17.2 = 27.8 / 2 = 13.9 x .932 Tulsa's SOS = 13.0 YPPT

416.9 TYDS / 13.0 YPPT =  32.1 Projected Points


Tulsa

168.0 - 31.5 = 136.5

102.0 - 6.5 = 95.5

136.5 + 95.5 = 232.0 / 2 = 116 x .932 = 108.1 Rushing

246.2 - 52.9 = 193.3

171.8 + 7.5 = 179.3

193.3 + 179.3 = 372.6 / 2 = 186.3 x .932 = 173.6 Passing

281.7 Total Yds

12.6 + 2.8 = 15.4

19.0 + 1.2 = 20.2

15.4 + 20.2 = 35.6 / 2 = 17.8 x 1.068 Boise SOS = 19.0 YPPT

281.7 TYDS / 19.0 YPPT = 14.8 Projected Points

Hope this helps as this is the formula in its simplest form

GL

roughshod31

how do u get the R(+28.8) and P(+37.6) on Boise Off?

thanks

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 11
Posted: #170
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 482
Posted: #171
holly $hit after 7 pages of reading this stuff the last post actually made sense!! NO JOKE!!!
 
Rough - I love this thanks for all the hard work!!
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2007
Posts: 1514
Posted: #172
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2001
Posts: 41904
Posted: #173
I just did the calculations for all this week's NFL games. I already keep track of all teams rush + pass yards along with YPPT and only thing needed was to create the formula and get Sagarin's SOS numbers.

Wait until you see Giants @ Saints "prediction" score.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #174

I'm happy about the excitement that has been generated here in this forum. I don't want people to lose sight of the fact that WE WILL suffer shortcomings along the way. Any ideas to improve this formula are welcome for trial & error as this needs to continue to be a work in progress. I am always trying new things looking for any edge I might find.

GL & Keep up the good work

 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2007
Posts: 566
Posted: #175
thanks for all your hard work roughshod31
All Forums | Systems & Strategies
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gambling
Betting Sites
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
21+
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Help Privacy Terms of Service Cookies Sitemap Forum
Covers is verified safe by:
Evalon Logo Logo GPWA Logo GDPR logo Logo GeoTrust logo Logo PCI DSS logo Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.