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New YPPT Method

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Posted: #126

skan

I will explain using LA Monroes (P) vs Ark.St. (P) Def.

 LAM      210.0 (P)          (+4.2)                                                          Ark. St.  266.5 (P) DEF.  (+74.1)

210.0 + 266.5 = 476.5/ 2 =238.3

74.1 - 4.2 = 69.9/2 = 35.0 + 238.3 = 273.3 x .954 SOS = 260.7 (P)

GL

 
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Posted: #127
Hey sorry I'm new to this method of capping. I saw in your NFL Exampmle, the Number in the bracket was the difference between Jets offense and Opp Allowed which was 31.1. I've been checking out the Arkansas state example, and I cant figure out where the (-22.4) is coming from on the Ark St. Offense Rushing? I feel like a moron because I can't figure out what I am missing. Can anyone point to me where that number comes from?
 
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Posted: #128
 that example you just showed. Where does the (+4.2) and (+74.1) come from? I cant find where those numbers are coming from. I understand the rest of the arithmetic though, and how they all come together.
 
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Posted: #129
Quote Originally Posted by Pegasus21:

well now my numbers match up with Roughshods numbers..  Haha. this shit is getting confusing and im an engineer.


I feel better now, because earlier I thought all my brain cells exploded. 
 
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Posted: #130

Rob

The (+4.2) & (+74.1) are the number of yards over their opponents avg. allowed (210.0 vs. 205.8).

Hope this helps

 
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Posted: #131
Okay, thats where I thought it came from. That is what logically makes sense, but for some reason I'm not finding the 205.8 on the stats? Not sure how I am missing it.
 
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Posted: #132
IMO, from how I've used this in the past, you are not supposed subtract double negatives or positives. For this game's example, Arkansas State was 1.6 YPPT better than the defensive opposition average (ie -1.6) and ULM was 1.7 YPPT worse than the offensive opposition average (ie -1.7). Therefore, these results should be added together not subtracted. You have to think of it from a logical perspective. If Arkansas State's offense has performed better than the average and ULM defense has performed worse than the average. the net results should bring down or benefit Arkansas States YPPT. By subtracted or splitting the difference as you put it, you are discounting the advantage.
 
Another way to put it - If Team A averages 100 yards more than the opposing defense lets up, and Team B gives up 100 more than the opposing offense averages, you shouldnt be subtracting these to get a 0 balance. They should be added together and averaged. Now if Team A averages 100 less and Team B gives up a 100 more, than you should get a 0 balance....im rambling but I hope this makes sense to you.
 
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Posted: #133
amazing results can't wait til next week
 
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Posted: #134

roughshod31...

for the jets/dolpins YYPT

NY Jets 20.91 (.980)     (20.91/21.34 = .980)...is the 20.91 is the RATING and 21.34 is the SCHEDULE from the SAGARIN'S? thamks

 
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Posted: #135
well that wasnt the result with with ark st........

maybe it's much harder with college football since the level of competition each week is totally different..
 
Captain
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Posted: #136
wow a system i've waited a lifetime for  
 
thanks for the OVER and ARK ST -2.5 picks tonight.........
i really think you need to reinvent the calculator
 
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Posted: #137
Quote Originally Posted by best_bets:

wow a system i've waited a lifetime for  
 
thanks for the OVER and ARK ST -2.5 picks tonight.........
i really think you need to reinvent the calculator


not everything is 100% guaranteed.... but so far, the NFL picks were dead on..
 
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Posted: #138
Quote Originally Posted by best_bets:

wow a system i've waited a lifetime for  
 
thanks for the OVER and ARK ST -2.5 picks tonight.........
i really think you need to reinvent the calculator


My god you're lame.  No one put a gun to your head.  Bottom line YOU made the bet.  As you can see OVERALL the system has been doing pretty well.  Rough has put a lot of work in to this and has been nice enough to share it with us.  Why don't you come back when you have a system that wins.  K thanks.
 
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Posted: #139
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:

Strength of Schedule (SOS) (Using Sagarin Ratings, see USA TODAY)

NY Jets 20.91 (.980)     (20.91/21.34 = .980)Repeat for MIA.

Miami    21.76 (1.020)   (20.91 + 21.76 = 42.67/2 = 21.34)

NY Jets 20.91 (.980)     (20.91/21.34 = .980)...is the 20.91 is the RATING and 21.34 is the SCHEDULE from the SAGARIN'S? thamks

 
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Posted: #140
 
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Posted: #141
Quote Originally Posted by skan:



got exactly the same (except that you (skan) double mistaked with SOS (input and calculation) so in the end you have right numbers - imo).

now i'll have to tweak formulas a bit as roughshod31 said.

interesting stuff, will see how it works :)
 
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Posted: #142
Never really played a system before. Confusing as fuck, I must say.
 
However, I would like to add a system to my capping ritual.
 
This is going to take a while to learn, and now is not the time for me as I have to get some sleep!
 
Added to Favorites.
 
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Posted: #143
Quote Originally Posted by Eccocide:

IMO, from how I've used this in the past, you are not supposed subtract double negatives or positives. For this game's example, Arkansas State was 1.6 YPPT better than the defensive opposition average (ie -1.6) and ULM was 1.7 YPPT worse than the offensive opposition average (ie -1.7). Therefore, these results should be added together not subtracted. You have to think of it from a logical perspective. If Arkansas State's offense has performed better than the average and ULM defense has performed worse than the average. the net results should bring down or benefit Arkansas States YPPT. By subtracted or splitting the difference as you put it, you are discounting the advantage.
 
Another way to put it - If Team A averages 100 yards more than the opposing defense lets up, and Team B gives up 100 more than the opposing offense averages, you shouldnt be subtracting these to get a 0 balance. They should be added together and averaged. Now if Team A averages 100 less and Team B gives up a 100 more, than you should get a 0 balance....im rambling but I hope this makes sense to you.

 

I agree somewhat with what your saying.  If team A has 100 rushing yds gained more than there opponent and team B allows 100 yds more than opponents gained I don't think they should just be subtracted from each other.  Doing that is basically treating it and one positive and one negative.  A team should be rewarded if that's the case for a double positve.  However, as roughshod says, maybe a double negative or positive is too extreme?  Maybe you add up the double negative or positives and divide by 3 instead of 2?  Just a thought. 

 
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Posted: #144
Quote Originally Posted by Eccocide:

IMO, from how I've used this in the past, you are not supposed subtract double negatives or positives. For this game's example, Arkansas State was 1.6 YPPT better than the defensive opposition average (ie -1.6) and ULM was 1.7 YPPT worse than the offensive opposition average (ie -1.7). Therefore, these results should be added together not subtracted. You have to think of it from a logical perspective. If Arkansas State's offense has performed better than the average and ULM defense has performed worse than the average. the net results should bring down or benefit Arkansas States YPPT. By subtracted or splitting the difference as you put it, you are discounting the advantage.
 
Another way to put it - If Team A averages 100 yards more than the opposing defense lets up, and Team B gives up 100 more than the opposing offense averages, you shouldnt be subtracting these to get a 0 balance. They should be added together and averaged. Now if Team A averages 100 less and Team B gives up a 100 more, than you should get a 0 balance....im rambling but I hope this makes sense to you.

This is the correct way to calculate this. Any other way is incorrect.

I've been thinking about this system, and this is where I think is issue.

He is using Sagarin's ratings (Strenght of schedule) to calculate the adjusted final yards (rush and pass) and YPPT.

He compasates teams that have played the best schedule and penalize teams that have played worst.

I just did some calculations where Cleveland (n#1 Sagarin SOS with 24.45) plays NY Giants (n#32 Sagarin SOS 13.48)

Cleveland's adjusted yards is: 158 yards

After SOS is applied, Clevaland's final adjusted yards becomes 203.67 (and this is just they played the toughest scheduled).

Giants adjusted yards is: 463.03 yards

Since they have played the weakest scheduled, the final adjusted yards becomes: 329.21

The system has its flawed like any other. Besides when Saring updates his ratings, his SOS numbers don't change dramatically either.

FYI

 
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Posted: #145
compasates = compensates
 
Legend
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Posted: #146
By the way, I am not criticizing system here. Just pointing out a few things.
 
Good stuff.
 
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Posted: #147
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:

Here is all of the work for you people with excel. I will be trying  to learn how to use said program in the near future.

Ark.St.     SOS (68.32)  (1.046 Multiplier)

LA Monroe SOS (62.35)  (.954)                                                                   (68.32 + 62.35 = 130.67/2 = 65.34) (62.35/65.34 = .954)

Ark.St. (O)    162.7 (R)  (-22.4)    180.0 (P)  (-2.9)  11.6 YPPT   (-1.6)

LA Monroe (D) 110.2 (R) (+6.3)    268.2 (P)  (36.9) 12.2 YPPT   (-1.7)

Ark.St. (162.7 + 110.2 = 272.9/2 = 136.5)

            (-22.4 + 6.3 = -16.1/2 = -8.1)

            136.5 - 8.1 = 128.4 x 1.046 SOS = 134.3 (R)

           (180.0 + 268.2 = 448.2/2 = 224.1)

           (-2.9 + 36.9 = 34/2 = 17.0)

           224.1 + 17.0 = 241.1 x 1.046 = 252.2 (P)

           (11.6 + 12.1 = 23.7/2 = 11.9)

           ( 1.6 - 1.7 = -0.1/ 2 = -0.05  I left this alone)

            11.9 x .954 (LA Monroe's SOS) = 11.35 YPPT.

Ark.St.    134 (R)     252 (P)   386 TYDS    11.4 YPPT  ( 33.9)

REPEAT STEPS FOR LA MONROE & THERE YOU ARE.

GL

        May I ask you where did you get de (-22.4), (+6.3), etc.....thank you   

 
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Posted: #148
roughshod31 got anything on tonights bosie/Tulsa game?
 
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Posted: #149
First attempt at this.  I'm getting Boise 42 Tulsa 28.
 
Seems kinda high though.....
 
Anyone else run this game?
 
 
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Posted: #150
33 - 14 is what I got
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