New YPPT Method

Ahhh!!  thanks!  I knew something just doesn't look right but couldn't figure it out.

i think this is where i am lost also.

Skan,

What did you new totals come up with with the adjusted SAS?

could i send you a PM and give you my email so you can send me your spreadsheet.  Ill do the same for you.

I just looked at my formula again.  I had the SAS correct, just type in wrong here.  It was off/def so it is still .958 for ark state.  and it was wrong for the home team.  but the total I got now is

36.22  round off to 35
29.58 round off to 30

this is the total yards per team
ark st.  122.53, 230.08, total 352.62  yppt 9.73
monroe 178.65, 290.07, total 468.73 yppt 15.84

wow, I'm really confuse with the SAS calculation.  I think this is correct after looking at the formula.  Let me make sure it is correct

for offense SAS calculation, I should use off/def?
for defense SAS calculation, I should use def/off?

score should be SAS total yards / Def SAS calculation?

with that said, after adjusting the spreadsheet, this is what I came up with.
                  rush           pass         total          yppt
ark st 33     122.53        230.08       352.62     10.66
monroe 32.5   178.65        290.07      468.73    14.46

Skan,

I have the same Monroe numbers as you, but my ark st. numbers are different.  im getting 134R    252P.  Any idea where im wrong?

My finaly score is 40 -32 with ark state winning.

I run a statistical model much like this for baseball.  It is dealing w run per out. 

The way I combat the above questions is to run the model for

1.) overall stats

2.) home/away stats - depending on if the team is home or away

3.) pitchers last 3 starts / hitting teams last 10 games

A line is creeated for all 3 using the same forula, but the stats oviously differ.  An average of all 3 is taken and that is my overall line.  The way in which i weight all 3 of the differnt lines is constantly changing in the way i feel it is most accurate.  It is not an exact science is weighting these.  I have an overall approach in how i like to weight them but like i said you can subjective change the weighting process how you feel has the most importance for that game. 

pegasus,  show me what you use for your calculation and I'll see if I can figure it out for you.

pegasus, I think I figure out your problem.  You multiply your rush and passing score by the SAS def/pass,  I think it should be SAS pass/def.  so basically you are multiplying it by .95 instead of 1.05

Skan, i am currently multipliying team A and Team B rushing and passing numbers by 1.05.  Is this correct?

GOOD WORK SIR!!

I need to make a correction from my earlier post. LA Monroe's final YPPT should be 15.9 not 15.2 ( I forgot to multiply by Ark.St.'s SOS multiplier 15.2 x 1.046 = 15.89). This fix changes the projected score total to.

Arkansas State            35.4  (35)

LA Monroe                    26.8  (27)

PLAY: Arkansas State + 2.5

GL

(Sorry I was'nt responding to posts this afternoon, I have Epilepsy & sometimes need to lay down for a few hours to avoid seizing.)

But you might have to consider the total score with tonight's weather with his 100% rain and severe thunderstorm..

Pegasus, that was the confusing part but after looking at the example on page 2, it looks like it should be

SOS yards * SOS ark st/monroe so it should be 62.35/68.32 for ark st SOS calculation

and
SOS yards * SOS monroe/ark st so it should be 68.32/62.35 for monroe SOS calculation

LOL, I'm really confuse after roughshod's post.

Roughshod, can you explain why you multiple the monroe's yppt value by 1.05 instead of .95? 

well now my numbers match up with Roughshods numbers..  Haha. this shit is getting confusing and im an engineer.

tell me about it.  I'm an EE and I'm confuse with the SOS.  My understanding is that the SOS factors in the team's performance based by handicapping to a certain %.  From what I can tell,  if both team has the exact same SOS, the ideal total yards / defense yards should be the total score for each team.  So lets say one team is favor by 5% based on SOS, the way Roughshods calculates it would show a 2.5% strength of one team towards the other vs. the way I calculated which will have a 10% skew.  I'm not exactly sure how to approach this.

Here is all of the work for you people with excel. I will be trying  to learn how to use said program in the near future.

Ark.St.     SOS (68.32)  (1.046 Multiplier)

LA Monroe SOS (62.35)  (.954)                                                                   (68.32 + 62.35 = 130.67/2 = 65.34) (62.35/65.34 = .954)

Ark.St. (O)    162.7 (R)  (-22.4)    180.0 (P)  (-2.9)  11.6 YPPT   (-1.6)

LA Monroe (D) 110.2 (R) (+6.3)    268.2 (P)  (36.9) 12.2 YPPT   (-1.7)

Ark.St. (162.7 + 110.2 = 272.9/2 = 136.5)

            (-22.4 + 6.3 = -16.1/2 = -8.1)

            136.5 - 8.1 = 128.4 x 1.046 SOS = 134.3 (R)

           (180.0 + 268.2 = 448.2/2 = 224.1)

           (-2.9 + 36.9 = 34/2 = 17.0)

           224.1 + 17.0 = 241.1 x 1.046 = 252.2 (P)

           (11.6 + 12.1 = 23.7/2 = 11.9)

           ( 1.6 - 1.7 = -0.1/ 2 = -0.05  I left this alone)

            11.9 x .954 (LA Monroe's SOS) = 11.35 YPPT.

Ark.St.    134 (R)     252 (P)   386 TYDS    11.4 YPPT  ( 33.9)

REPEAT STEPS FOR LA MONROE & THERE YOU ARE.

GL

           

Runs per out?  Total runs/27?

roughshod,
for the yppt on ark st.  do you not take (-1.6 - 1.7) = -1.55 and add it to 11.9 so it should be which equals to 10.35 * .954 = 9.73 for ark st. yppt?

also for monroe calculation for SOS
do I switch both teams so
LA Monroe OFF = .954 muliplier
Ark St DEF = 1.054 muliplier

or do I keep the muliplier the same to calculate monroe's SOS yards and yppt?

these are the questions I'm confuse with

skan 

With double positives & double negatives I split the difference meaning (-1.7 - -1.6 = -0.1).

You multiply offensive teams stats using offenses SOS. & multiply YPPT using defenses SOS.

Hope this clears things up a little.

GL

roughshod,
so with the double positive, you also split the difference so that would be for example 3 and 4.  You would do (3-4)/2 or 0.5??
I'm just trying to understand your math and making sure it is consistant on my spreadsheet

Roughshod I like the logic behind your system.  I have a similar system, which predicted that Minn Stl game at 28-14 Minn, and had the Jets Miami game at 27-21 Miami.


I'm interested in comparing with your NFL picks for week 6...also what is your YTD %? I'm currently at 67%. 

Good Luck, it really looks impressive what you've put together!