New YPPT Method

I am sensing a lot of frustration on this page.  I created a spreadsheet where you can simply copy and paste the statfox page and the excel file does everything else fpr you (you also have to input the SOS from USAToday manually but the excel file does those calcs as well).  I do not have the most recent adjustments added in yet, but if you would like the spreadsheet just let me know via private message.

that would be awesome, i have been watching this thread most of the day...waiting on more tips. Anyway, said had to add you as a friend to PM you, thanks a ton, I really appreciate it.

add me in USAsurfer. i will pm you

Thx

Jets          95 (R)    175 (P)      270 (YDS)       16.5 (YPPT)   16.4 PTS

Dolphins   161 (R)  159 (P)    320 (YDS)       18.8 (YPPT)  17.0 PTS

Isnt This the basic version. Rushing+Passing/YPPT=Score

Cant we just get those stats and do the calculation that way?or is it that we have to add certain numbers ex HFA,SOS?

Wow I didn't realize how many requests I would get that fast.  I think I just made 15 new friends, I will send out that excel file to all of you guys that PM me, and after that hopefully you can distribute it from there.

It is on my other computer, so I will get it out tomorrow in the a.m.

There are YPPT numbers on Statfox already, when you click on Expanded Matchup of each game, wich ones you use? "All Games" (Offense/Defence)?

Jets (Off.)       130.5R (+31.1)   166.7P (-67.9)  16.1YPPT (+0.7)

Opp. Allow       99.4                 234.6               15.4

Where do you guys get Opp.allow? is it the same as the defensive stats?

Hi Butta,

I believe this is right, if you go to statfox, then NFL, then Game Matchup, then Expanded Matchup, scroll near the bottom, there are stats there.  The Opp. Allow numbers are the same as the Opp Defensive Avg.  So basically yes.

Thanks for the fast reply man...Appreciate it..

Okay okay, I think I got it, BUT I need verification.  For the Jets/Dolphins game I have...

Miami 18 and Jets 10

So now would you have to round up for Miami 21 and Jets stay at 10?
Provided that the above numbers are correct.

Regards,
Recon

UsaSurfer..... would also like to get the spreadsheet! Thanks!

UsaSurfer..... would also like to get the spreadsheet! Thanks!

 Thanks to all for all the work &info., UsaSurfer .........is it possible to send the spread sheet please?

Thanks

 

    bump

So then why won't you include Detroit in one of the best plays of the week?

Am i missing something here.........

You have Detroit by 15 pts........they may be like a 3 pt favorite

So Detroit too ?

UsaSurfer...ima add u, anyway i can get that spreadsheet too...thx a bunch!

I'll buy you office bro! 

Hello roughshod31

I am trying to understand your new adjustments so I can set them up in my spreadsheet.  I understand the way the sos is now set up by dividing team rating by team sched.  I also understand the new HFA -1.75/+1.75 and adding a point per difference of 7.

I don't understand how you implement the plays and yards per play though and was hoping you could spread some light on this for me?

Thank you

Okay, I looked at the Jets number and I forgot to use the SOS number and HFA, my final numbers are Mia = 17.71 and Jets = 19.78

So real numbers, I guess I would look for Mia = 17, Jets = 21

Recon

theres a post from 2 nights ago where "rough" did the Bo/clv game and it hit both side and total but they werent big discrepancies from the vegas line.

 

JB - I think rough said he was working on something similar for points per attempt or something similar for hoops.  I like where you are going though...Lebron will lead the NBA in rushing this year.

All right guys I just went through about a million PMs and sent my spreadsheet to every individual who included an e-mail address.  I think that is about all the time I can spend today, but I will try to get to more tomorrow.  Maybe some others can share their files in the meantime.

Good luck.

lou4062

I use the Total Plays & Yards Per Play as a means on double checking the accuracy of YPPT calculation. I will show you using Texas @ Oklahoma St. as an example.

          Offense Plays   (Differential)   Offense YPP (Differential) 

UT              78.6                  ( + 6.7 )           5.6               ( + 0.5 )

OK St.        68.0                   ( - 3.5 )            6.1               (+ 0.1 )

           Defense Plays   (Differential)  Defense YPP (Differential)

UT               65.9              ( - 5.6 )           3.6                 ( - 1.7 )

OK St.          71.7              ( + 0.3 )          4.9                 ( - 0.4 ) 

Texas SOS (Mult.)     1.030

OK St.  SOS(Mult.)     0.970

Texas     78.6 + 0.3 =  78.9   

               71.7 + 6.7 =  78.4  (78.9 + 78.4 = 157.3/2 = 78.7)

               78.7 x 1.030 = 81.1 Expected Plays

Texas     5.6 + -0.4 = 5.2

               4.9 + +0.5 = 5.4   (5.2 + 5.4 = 10.6/2 = 5.3)

                5.3 x 1.030 = 5.5  Expected YPP

Texas     81.1 Plays  x  5.5 YPP =  446.1 Total YDS.

                                                      430.1 Total Yds. YPPT Calc.

Do the same for Oklahoma St. and you have a good way to double check your YPPT calculation.

Hope this helps

GL

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spreadsheet would be appreciated when you have time. TY