Posted:
#801
NYG 37
Philly 27
could be wrong...
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New YPPT Method
Posted:
#804
Roughshod31, do you think you can start to make another YPPT method post specifically just for the NBA using Wednesday's stats? thanks
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:
NBA TEST FORMULA
This is a test formula using last seasons stats. Do not consider this a formula play in any way. System uses very similar principles as football system, using POINTS PER ATTEMPT in each shooting situation in place of YPPT.
Test Projection
2 PTA PPA 3PTA PPA FTA PPA
Boston 57.83 .962 16.95 1.065 22.93 .821
Cleveland 56.67 .961 19.56 1.067 26.08 .771
Projected Score
Boston 92.47
Cleveland 95.44
Remember this is in the trial phase I need this years stats for more accurate results.
GL
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Posted:
#805
Quote Originally Posted by AChigurh:
There are much better ways to test the accuracy of your model than just the ATS record of when the games meet your criteria.
Action points is one of them. Actions points is how the team did in relation to the spread. So if the thread is +7 and the team looses by 3 your are -4 action points. If they win by 3 you are +10 action points. Your goal is to be as positive as possible
Ther other is how often does your model say to bet an opening line but pass on a closing line. This is showing you if your model is in agreement with the market. This is the strongest way to predict the sccuracy of your model. If your model isconstantly predicting the correct movement of the market it IS A WINNER.
Also keep in mind that almost no models do well in al situations. Dr. Bob boasts the most famous and accurate math model on the planet (that we know of atleast). And even he admitted that his model seriously struggles on large road favorites. This comes from some serious testing and work and if you guys are willing to do that than give up on the whole"math to give you and edge" mindet, because you wont get one.
I understand you were just answering their question. this is for everyone else 
Should it not be if you lose by 4 as a +7 dog then your action point would be +4 since if you win by 3 your action point is +10.
Also, what are you suppose to do with these action points? If a team is very positive do you bet them the next game or what? And are the action points cumulative or single game?
0
Posted:
#806
Quote Originally Posted by AChigurh:
There are much better ways to test the accuracy of your model than just the ATS record of when the games meet your criteria.
Action points is one of them. Actions points is how the team did in relation to the spread. So if the thread is +7 and the team looses by 3 your are -4 action points. If they win by 3 you are +10 action points. Your goal is to be as positive as possible
Ther other is how often does your model say to bet an opening line but pass on a closing line. This is showing you if your model is in agreement with the market. This is the strongest way to predict the sccuracy of your model. If your model isconstantly predicting the correct movement of the market it IS A WINNER.
Also keep in mind that almost no models do well in al situations. Dr. Bob boasts the most famous and accurate math model on the planet (that we know of atleast). And even he admitted that his model seriously struggles on large road favorites. This comes from some serious testing and work and if you guys are willing to do that than give up on the whole"math to give you and edge" mindet, because you wont get one.
I understand you were just answering their question. this is for everyone else
Should it not be if you lose by 4 as a +7 dog then your action point would be +4 since if you win by 3 your action point is +10.
Also, what are you suppose to do with these action points? If a team is very positive do you bet them the next game or what? And are the action points cumulative or single game?
0
Posted:
#808
Quote Originally Posted by CallMeBruce:
Should it not be if you lose by 4 as a +7 dog then your action point would be +4 since if you win by 3 your action point is +10.
Also, what are you suppose to do with these action points? If a team is very positive do you bet them the next game or what? And are the action points cumulative or single game?
Should it not be if you lose by 4 as a +7 dog then your action point would be +4 since if you win by 3 your action point is +10.
Also, what are you suppose to do with these action points? If a team is very positive do you bet them the next game or what? And are the action points cumulative or single game?
I understand where the action points come from & I dabbled with them some time ago, but imo, they cant be used to predict future events with a winning percentage worthy of your money. Maybe someone can do something new with them.
0
Posted:
#811
NFL Week 8 Predictions
Denver 23 - Baltimore 15
Cleveland 13 - Chicago 23
Houston 22 - Buffalo 16
Minnesota 23 - Green Bay 25
San Francisco 14 - Indianapolis 24
Miami 19 - NY Jets 20
St Louis 10 - Detroit 25
Seattle 23 - Dallas 20
Oakland 10 - San Diego 34
Jacksonville 23 - Tennessee 22
Carolina 9 - Arizona 38
NY Giants 39 - Philadelphia 22 (Sunday Night)
Atlanta 27 - New Orleans 31 (Monday Night)
Plays: (Difference +/-7 from vegas line at the time of this writing)
- Denver +3.5
- Seattle +9.5
- San Diego -16.5
- Arizona -10
- NY Giants +1
0
Posted:
#813
I've picked the Baltimore/Denver stats to try and work on this formula in my own spreadsheet.
Roughshod31 or VGPOP, any chance you have time to put a breakdown of the stats together to show which forumulas are required ? (something like post #37 of this thread)
If your tired of answering this, I understand, I'll do my best to figure it out. 
0
Posted:
#814
Hi roughshod.
I forgot to ask you what you were using for sos, original or team efficiency with the Sagarin team power rating/ it's schedule rating. I noticed in your example you gave me you used the original sos and I was just curious. The team efficiency way can get some big changes with the real bad and the real good teams.
ty
0
Posted:
#819
Quote Originally Posted by recon168:
Hey Lou,
I thought the SOS was just the SCHEDL number? I may be wrong, just wondering.
Hey recon,
The original way was to take the schedule numbers of both teams add them together and then divide the sum by two. After, you get that number you divide each teams schedule number into the number. Roughshod was also trying a different formula for sos so that is why I asked. sos is a very important part of the equation and I just wanted to make sure what he thought was best. Hope this helps.
0
Posted:
#821
Hey guys, I think I finally have the spreadsheet, but my number is off for Ind and SF, I used them as an example. I have...
IND 31 SF 14
Can anyone verify these numbers for me and who is willing to verify my spreadsheet. Especially anyone that knows this system, please tell me if I have this correct. I have a spreadsheet ready to be sent. PM me if you want to check it out.
Recon
0
But I thank those of you who have been posting the plays along the way.... I will tail this system in the more traditional sense
Posted:
#824
Quote Originally Posted by recon168:
Hey guys, I think I finally have the spreadsheet, but my number is off for Ind and SF, I used them as an example. I have...
IND 31 SF 14
Can anyone verify these numbers for me and who is willing to verify my spreadsheet. Especially anyone that knows this system, please tell me if I have this correct. I have a spreadsheet ready to be sent. PM me if you want to check it out.
Recon
Hiya recon,
Using the original Sagarin/Roughshod sos and no HFA I got:
sfo 15.2
ind 21.9
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Posted:
#825
Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:
Some people have been asking what is the record on these plays since Roughshod31 created the thread in the NFL forum.
These are the record for the plays that differed by +/- 7 points from Vegas closing line (scoresandodds.com) (Roughshod31 himself set a +/-4 point difference in the beginning. I changed it to a full TD to get better results). Also, when I started to post predictions, I counted those games, not Roughshod31's predictions, since he kept adjusting the system, adding HCA and other factors. (No disrespect to the him)
NFL:
18 wins - 6 losses - 1 PUSH (75%)
NCAAF:
24 wins - 15 losses - 1 PUSH (61.5%)
TOTAL:
42 wins - 21 losses - 2 PUSH (66.7%)
Some people have been asking what is the record on these plays since Roughshod31 created the thread in the NFL forum.
These are the record for the plays that differed by +/- 7 points from Vegas closing line (scoresandodds.com) (Roughshod31 himself set a +/-4 point difference in the beginning. I changed it to a full TD to get better results). Also, when I started to post predictions, I counted those games, not Roughshod31's predictions, since he kept adjusting the system, adding HCA and other factors. (No disrespect to the him)
NFL:
18 wins - 6 losses - 1 PUSH (75%)
NCAAF:
24 wins - 15 losses - 1 PUSH (61.5%)
TOTAL:
42 wins - 21 losses - 2 PUSH (66.7%)
Nice! Did anyone post the formula on tonights play(WV at So Fla)? GLTA
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