New YPPT Method

i just saw this post, nice system you have running here..

 

what's the record at the moment for nfl?

VG,

A few weeks back you addressed the fact that StatFox may have inaccurate statistics and cited a detailed example using the NYG running game.

Are you making these manual adjustments when you calculate each game at this point? Or did you find the differences to be immaterial?

Hey VG -

 

Where are the NBA Picks going to be?  I can't find the thread for it.  Great job on Football!!

Also, would VG or anyone experienced in these calculations mind posting a detailed example of one for this week's NFL.  Something similar to VG's post for the Giants-Saints game two weeks ago would be extremely helpful.

I just ran the numbers for the Broncos-Ravens game and was off a full 7 points on each side compared to VGs numbers on the previous page.  I would love to see where I am off.

Please Disregard. I was simply pulling a formula from an incorrect row. After my change I am getting identical numbers for all games.

However, I am still interested to hear if it is a worthwhile use of time to adjust StatFox statistics as discussed above, and I am very curious to know whether any progress has been made in regards to implementing the plays per games as mentioned earlier.

The adjustments are automatic applied in the formula I have for Excel.

And yes, there is a noticeable difference with the accurate stats.

VGPOP,

Florida St is Projected at 54. Would you take a team total over?

Hey guys,

I'm trying to work on the YPPT method and I'm sitting here pulling my hair out, any help is much appreciated.  Questions...

I'm doing Denver and Baltimore, this way everyone can get the same stats and perhaps for the people that are confused like me, maybe learn something, anyhow.

SOS which I got from USA today are:

Denver = 21.59 and Baltimore = 21.62

Then I divided 21.59 by (21.59+21.62) and got .50 for Denver and also 0.50 for Baltimore, I guess since 21.62 divided by (21.59+21.62) are pretty close.  So what is this called?

Next I went to thespread.com and found Denver's RY which is 132.7 and added it to Baltimore's Defensive RY which is 91.2 and divided by 2 which gave me 111.95.  OKay great but now, I'm not sure what to do next?

Also why in the very first example, we used Jet's Offense and Dolphin's Defense and not both?

So so confused,

Recon

 

 

 

Holy crap I'm going bald, need help to understand this.  ARGGHHH

im just grateful VG does all this for us so we dont have to because im completely confused.

I know, I'm grateful too, but I just want to be able to learn this method and be able to compare notes.  I will look at it some more. 

I think i got it. Can some one who knows how its done, put some scores so i can double check my math. Thanks.

according to the system, its going to be 26-42 FSU. so based off of that, it would be an over.

NYG 39
eagles 19

miami 21
NYJ 18

I still dont get why the average of SOS of both teams is needed when calculating the 'Multiplier' since both SOS divide by the same number. You can divide both SOS by whatever same number.

Ex. Denver SOS 21.59 / (21.59 + 21.62) and Baltimore SOS 21.62/(21.59+21.62)  can be use as 21.59 / 50 and 21.62 / 50, respectively.

The 'Multiplier', rushing yard, and passing yard will be changed. However the projected score (total yard/YPPT) is always the same.

Here is my projected score for Denver/Baltimore game:

Denver 22.26
Baltimore 14.55

I think I may have gotten it, gonna finish it off while I do laundry!

Can anyone do a sample step by step calculation for one of this week matchup? I'm still confused on what numbers I should use in statfox.com.

 

Thanks in advance

Can anyone do a sample step by step calculation for one of this week matchup? I'm still confused on what numbers I should use in statfox.com.

 

Thanks in advance

Wow, after reading all 29 pages last night thought I would give one a shot, I am working on the Den-Bal game and still have not figured it out. But thanks for all the tips and pointers and to you guys who developed it, it looks fantastic

That's what I did today, I was going off of what VGPOP did for the Boise/Tulsa game and I don't get where he got the negative numbers from.  ANd in his example he uses for rushing, the RY on Boise's offense and then he uses the negative number on Tulsa's defensive stats, but that's different from what Rough had for the Jet's Dolphins game.  Thought I had it, and on Statfox, they already have the YPPT calculated.

If anyone can explain how they get the numbers inside the brackets.

For Ex: (Last week)

Boise (O) 191.6 (R) (+28.8)     247.8 (P) (+37.6)  10.9 YPPT (-1.3)

Tulsa  (D)   95.0 (R) (-31.1)      204.2 (P) (+6.5)   18.5 YPPT (-0.3)

 

If anyone can explain using this week matchups so we have all the numbers.

Thanks

Just a simple thanks for all the hard work and sharing. Does this system take into account DPR? I have seen this calculated in another forum and is amazingly accurate especially with the top five ranked teams and where this is a difference of 10+. DPR is Defensive Passer Rating. Do these calculations include that?

I am bald so I started punching myself in the no-no place.  I quit shortly after that!

Rough and VG, thank you for your continued effort on helping us all and win or lose I appreciate all your effort!