A POSITIVE EXAMPLE;
based on the concept of "adjustments" and the many PM messages to confirm, I expressed the confirmation on adjustments in the form of an example.....please follow me in understanding.
the 8 teams I have listed above, are those that qualify for system play in yesterdays action, the variable, or adjusment, come in the way of the "cut" (which is explained in detail, earlier in the thread, but obviously over looked) the 3 strongest "reads" based on pure sabermetric calc are Pirates, Atl/NYM- under, NYY/Tor- under...
TB&ARI would have also been included, with the 3 weaker teams eliminated, based on their low rating of not being conclusive enough to produce a winning advantage..This of course is where the variables are added, still using the sabermetric rating of your strongest forecast, and using it's own equation "gap" to produce the very important final cut, and initiate your wagers, which in this particular example would have been a 3-2 success ratio......
By the way; I just didn't read the formula one day, and publish the experiment the next..reading the commentary of the participants of this thread I COMPLETELY RELATE to what you saying, because I experienced identical conclusions when applying sabermetrics to MLB stats for handicapping purposes.....
Not only did I read everything that TomTango(the innovator) published, and blogged, I also contacted him through tangotiger.com for more in-depth understanding. The next step was to do backround on David Smyth, the inventor of sabermetrics attached to MLB stats( this is an important "key"-understanding how to "attach" the Base_Runs formula to sabermetric projections, and evaluations..by trial, and error, this took 14 days of work before the 70% success ratio was achieved through a documented experiment.....
It must also be noted that "you are not going back into the future, through sabermetric stats" you are adding a successful "tool" to your handicapping skills(one that is proven to be successful, not just discussed)
You gentlemen are definately pointed in the correct direction, and far from being lost in concept..It's their..My only advantage is 20 years experience in handicapping MLB....Your advantage, being in the right place, at the right time, and having 5 intelligent handicapping brains working together as a "group" to develop successful advantage......Which is a treasure within itself; take advantage of your situation, and never let your esteem depreciate!
your motivation factor, is simply, "the application of sabermetrics, applied to MLB stats on 100 plays, is successful 70% ...... understanding, not30, not50, not75, but 100... where "luck" becomes limited in nature" the best to all
and my brain is fried already.
Nobody said it was going to be easy!!
.....
man.
but I'm trying......and atleast lets see if my math adds up
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