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Prospect
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Posted: #226
Quote Originally Posted by BillWag27:

More info and education:

https://www.tangotiger.net/markov.html

https://css.answerbag.com/articles/How-to-Calculate-Runs-Created-in-Baseball/a1e320b4-8bd2-c8db-8524-1b046219a874

https://philliesblog.blogspot.com/2006/05/baseruns-battingruns-runs-created.html

https://ownersedge.fanball.com/article/2009/1/Runs-Created-2008-Review

https://ownersedge.fanball.com/article/2009/1/Runs-Created-Per-Game-2008-Review



Very helpful! Especially the one from philliesblog! Thank you
 
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Posted: #227
Quote Originally Posted by headcoach66:



Very helpful! Especially the one from philliesblog! Thank you

Couldnt agree more. 
 
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Posted: #228
Runs Created
Invented by Bill James, RC is a very good measure of the number of runs a batter truly contributed to his team’s offense. The basic formula for RC is OBP*TB, but it has evolved into over fourteen different versions.

RC = A*B/C

A = H + W + HB - CS - GIDP
B = 1.125*S + 1.69*D + 3.02*T + 3.73*HR + .29*(W - IW + HB) + .492*(SB + SH + SF) - .04*K
C = AB + W + HB + SH + SF

I would look into using the most complicated version, which includes the impact of hitting well with runners in scoring position, and is adjusted for ballpark impact.

RC/G refers to Runs Created Per Game, which Runs Created divided by the number of outs made by the batter, times 27.
 
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Posted: #229
Quote Originally Posted by BillWag27:

Runs Created
Invented by Bill James, RC is a very good measure of the number of runs a batter truly contributed to his team’s offense. The basic formula for RC is OBP*TB, but it has evolved into over fourteen different versions.

RC = A*B/C

A = H + W + HB - CS - GIDP
B = 1.125*S + 1.69*D + 3.02*T + 3.73*HR + .29*(W - IW + HB) + .492*(SB + SH + SF) - .04*K
C = AB + W + HB + SH + SF

I would look into using the most complicated version, which includes the impact of hitting well with runners in scoring position, and is adjusted for ballpark impact.

RC/G refers to Runs Created Per Game, which Runs Created divided by the number of outs made by the batter, times 27.


Also, maybe even factoring in the umpires over/under ats
 
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Posted: #230
baseball-reference.com

This site gives virtually every stat needed.  Play with it to break down into teams and players.
 
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Posted: #231
Quote Originally Posted by BillWag27:



Also, maybe even factoring in the umpires over/under ats


...and the weather, time, lunch before the game
 
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Posted: #232
HELP:
BaseRuns:
A: H + BB + HBP - HR
B: (.8 * S) + (2.1 * D) + (3.4 * T) + (1.8 * HR) + (.1* (BB+HBP))
C: AB – H
D: HR

WHAT DOES THE D STAND FOR?
Is S single and D double T triple? 
 
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Posted: #233
Way to go guys..looks like we are making progress
 
Thanks for the info....BillWag27 and welcome
 
please continue to post your calculations for games so we can compare to each other and with SN's plays.
 
 
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Posted: #234
Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent:

HELP:
BaseRuns:
A: H + BB + HBP - HR
B: (.8 * S) + (2.1 * D) + (3.4 * T) + (1.8 * HR) + (.1* (BB+HBP))
C: AB – H
D: HR

WHAT DOES THE D STAND FOR?
Is S single and D double T triple? 

Yes...D is for double...
 
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Posted: #235
Does anyone have a spreadsheet incorporating the formula,that we could just add the numbers in and it would give us a total?
 
If not do you think it would be a good idea or not?
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #236
Quote Originally Posted by PuckHog:

Way to go guys..looks like we are making progress
 
Thanks for the info....BillWag27 and welcome
 
please continue to post your calculations for games so we can compare to each other and with SN's plays.
 

Thank you PH...

I am working on the late games.  I will give my calculations shortly.  I am using the Runs Created formula for team total.

I feel that Base Runs is a better tool for individual player calculations.
 
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Posted: #237
Quote Originally Posted by headcoach66:



...and the weather, time, lunch before the game

Exactly HC66!
 
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Posted: #238
BILL WAG -  Thanks for all the work I appreciate it. After you are done with the number I may ask a few questions to get a better grasp. You have answered alot of questions with the posts!!
 
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Posted: #239
What are the plays for MAy 14th ?
 
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Posted: #240
Not sure about it:

CLE/TB UNDER????
 
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Posted: #241
Running Late, but I have the Cards @ -135
 
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Posted: #242
Also, Cards 1st 5 inn @ -1/2 +110
 
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Posted: #243
Orioles, 1st 5 and Game!
 
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Posted: #244
Jeff Karstens
 Career
A = H + W - HRB = (1.4*TBe - .6*H - 3*HR + .1*W)*1.1C = 3*IPWhere TBe = 1.12*H + 4*HRD = HR
Base Runs = A*B/(B+C)+D





G IP H R ER HR BB



29 134.2 148 89 74 22 46












A= 172.00






Tbe= 253.76







B= 205.52






C= 402.60







D= 22.00
















BR= 80.13







BR/G= 2.76















 
Prospect
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Posted: #245

 Career
G IP H R ER HR BB



12 52.0 61 37 35 6 31











A=






Tbe=






B=







C=







D=















BR=






BR/G=





 
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Posted: #246
Boggs
  Career
A = H + W - HR Where TBe = 1.12*H + 4*HR B = (1.4*TBe - .6*H - 3*HR + .1*W)*1.1 C = 3*IP D = HR
Base Runs = A*B/(B+C)+D Base Runs per Game = BR / Games








G IP H R ER HR BB



12 52.0 61 37 35 6 31












A= 86.00






Tbe= 92.32






B= 78.06







C= 156.00







D= 6.00
















BR= 34.68






BR/G= 2.89





 
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Posted: #247
My formatting is terrible...disregard post #245

I predict Base Runs per Game (BR/G) for the starting pitcher by using their career stats.

Next I will try to explain the Runs Created per Game (RC/G) for each team by using the offensive stats for the ENTIRE TEAM for the current season.
 
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Posted: #248
Pittsburgh

RC = A*B/CA = H + W + HB - CS - GIDPB = 1.125*S + 1.69*D + 3.02*T + 3.73*HR + .29*(W - IW + HB) + .492*(SB + SH + SF) - .04*KC = AB + W + HB + SH + SF

 
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Posted: #249
RC=# of Outs=RC per Game =A=B=C=
145








841
# of Outs = PA-H-BB-HBP-IBB
4.66
RC per Game = RC / # of Outs * 27
383








475








1255








 
 
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Posted: #250



PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP SH SF IBB

Team Totals 1255 1110 284 182 73 7 22 136 18 6 107 232 17 15 14 9 8
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