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Posted: #201
Quote Originally Posted by diamonddicer:

I read the thread three times now, and while I by no means consider myself a genuis, I have an advanced degree and a CPA and I would expect it of myself that I would be able to follow how/what "adjustments" are made through your phases but I just can't.

You have the credentials, that's for sure, and you definately have the background in mathematics(cpa) I can only recommend you do additional reading based on unifying sabermetrics with MLB stats, if interested.. stay around!

 
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Posted: #202
Quote Originally Posted by gambool:



Hi vincent,

I have :
CHW/CLE total runs 13
PIT/STL total runs 6.5
LAD/PHI total runs 14 !

So we're pretty close for the first two, but not the last one.

Also I would like to know from sports_network, since I have 9.92-3.8 for the phillies, am I better betting on the over at 10 or on the winning team ? I would guess on the team since the difference is bigger, but the odds are better on the over.


Glad we are close on a couple. Hopefully we can figure out the 3rd with the dodger game. I may make it a no play but we'll see how it turns out. 

As for the CHW/CLE game, what team score did you get? I had CLE winning by 3
 
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Posted: #203
MLB / Base_Runs releases Wed 05/13/09 un-cut version for re:
 
                                    Nationals+116
                                    Dodgers+104
                                    Marlins+104
                                    Rockies-152
                                    DevilRays-109
                                    Mariners+130
                                    Tigers+145
                                    Royals+107
 
                                    Cardinals vs Pirates UNDER 9.5
                                    Padres vs Cubs UNDER 11.5
                                    Reds vs Diamondbacks OVER 9
                                    WhiteSox vs Indians UNDER 8.5
                                    Yankees vs BlueJays OVER 9
                                     RedSox vs LAA UNDER 10
 
Reference / UNCUT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                             
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #204
14 games..Base_Runs projection 10-4..cut the 4 losses...you have 10 wins..7-3=70%........
 
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Posted: #205
Thanks guys for the input......the door is ajar and I'm pushing to open it.....back to more reading
 
 
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Posted: #206

two additional plays: but less strength:

tigers +135

rays-115

Anyone else on those?

 
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Posted: #207
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

                                    Dodgers+104
...

                                    WhiteSox vs Indians UNDER 8.5
...
 


lol I think I'm just gonna give up I suck too bad.
 
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Posted: #208
Quote Originally Posted by gambool:



lol I think I'm just gonna give up I suck too bad.

ha ha..... I was thinking the same about myself. Obviously the CHW over loss but in all fairness they sat quite a few starters and they made a pinch hit appearance. I hit the RL which saved me but too sit your "guys" when playing against a division rival with the reigning Cy Young on the hill took me by surprise.

On a positive note we are on the right side with Pit!!
 
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Posted: #209
Quote Originally Posted by ca_cris:

two additional plays: but less strength:

tigers +135

rays-115

Anyone else on those?


Seems like you are on the right track seeing that your plays are in line with SN! I have trouble getting enough DATA (p vs. bat) with some games so I bypass. Not saying I am right just a personal thing for me. Seems like we are getting a little closer
 
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Posted: #210
WOW  14 games......SN you have to tell us please how you can analyze that many at 40 min per game?
 
Do you assume the starting line up will be mostly the same for each game minus players who are injured?Meaning that the regulars will play the majority of the time!
 
Also do you analyze every game or rule out certain games because of...injuries
                 - unknown starting pitcher
                 - weather
                 - etc...
 
Thanks again.....
 
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Posted: #211
OVER looking good in the Jays game boys 5-1 in top of 2nd
 
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Posted: #212
How do we get a play on the over 9 in the Jays/Yanks game when the Yanks have never faced Scott Richmond the Jays starter??  anybody ??
  
 
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Posted: #213
Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent:


Glad we are close on a couple. Hopefully we can figure out the 3rd with the dodger game. I may make it a no play but we'll see how it turns out. 

As for the CHW/CLE game, what team score did you get? I had CLE winning by 3

Excellent Heavin-cent you must be doing something right

Heavin...do my calculations look right for Ellsbury v Weaver in your opinion????thanks

 
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Posted: #214
OVER IN JAYS GAME   in the 5th  8 - 2 Yanks
 
Not sure how SN gets this when the Yanks have never face Jays pitcher!
 
Congrats anyway to whoever made the
 
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Posted: #215
Quote Originally Posted by PuckHog:

OVER IN JAYS GAME   in the 5th  8 - 2 Yanks
 
Not sure how SN gets this when the Yanks have never face Jays pitcher!
 
Congrats anyway to whoever made the

One word, PETTITTE...he has dominated the Jay's line up..THE CONCENTRATION SHOULD HAVE BEEN ON HIM.. not Richmond.........

 
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Posted: #216
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

MLB / Base_Runs releases Wed 05/13/09 un-cut version for re:
 
                                    Nationals+116
                                    Dodgers+104
                                    Marlins+104.......CUT
                                    Rockies-152.......CUT
                                    DevilRays-109
                                    Mariners+130
                                    Tigers+145
                                    Royals+107........CUT
 
                                    Cardinals vs Pirates UNDER 9.5
                                    Padres vs Cubs UNDER 11.5
                                    Reds vs Diamondbacks OVER 9
                                    WhiteSox vs Indians UNDER 8.5
                                    Yankees vs BlueJays OVER 9
                                     RedSox vs LAA UNDER 10........CUT
 
Reference / UNCUT
 
 
 
Incorporating the "cut" is based on pure sabermetric calc ratings by the Base_Runs application, by relieving the games where the equation is the weakest, and possesses the largest losing "gap"
as posted yesterday, for understanding "cut, and "adjustment" concept.........
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                             
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #217
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

MLB / Base_Runs releases Wed 05/13/09 un-cut version for re:
 
                                    Nationals+116....win
                                    Dodgers+104..... win
                                   
                                   
                                    DevilRays-109....win
                                    Mariners+130.....loss
                                    Tigers+145.........loss
                                    
 
                                    Cardinals vs Pirates UNDER 9.5....win
                                    Padres vs Cubs UNDER 11.5........win
                                    Reds vs Diamondbacks OVER 9...win
                                    WhiteSox vs Indians UNDER 8.5...win
 
                                    Yankees vs BlueJays OVER 9......win
                                    
 
 
totals:5-0
dogs:2-2
favorite's:1-0
won8 lost2=80%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                             
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #218
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

14 games..Base_Runs projection 10-4..cut the 4 losses...you have 10 wins..7-3=70%........

This shows the "cut" formula(published yesterday) using the success ratio of 70% as it's foundation, fine tuned, it's  now approaching 80% as indicated in yesterday's results......

 
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Posted: #219
sports_Network,
 
Please explain how you "cut" 4 losers after the games have been played???
I guess I must be missing something??? Please explain..
 
Thanks
 
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Posted: #220
Quote Originally Posted by rman1049:

sports_Network,
 
Please explain how you "cut" 4 losers after the games have been played???
I guess I must be missing something??? Please explain..
 
Thanks

they

they where cut before game time, by myself, for wager preperation, and to publish all MLB action as an outline for those having difficulty in application, everyone applying the correct formula, would have cut the identical games, please refer to thread #216 .....your welcome

 
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Posted: #221
More info and education:

https://www.tangotiger.net/markov.html

https://css.answerbag.com/articles/How-to-Calculate-Runs-Created-in-Baseball/a1e320b4-8bd2-c8db-8524-1b046219a874

https://philliesblog.blogspot.com/2006/05/baseruns-battingruns-runs-created.html

https://ownersedge.fanball.com/article/2009/1/Runs-Created-2008-Review

https://ownersedge.fanball.com/article/2009/1/Runs-Created-Per-Game-2008-Review

 
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Posted: #222
Sports,
I would appreciate if you keep posting these "uncut" plays, it is a great support for my research.
 
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Posted: #223

Quote Originally Posted by BillWag27:

More info and education:

https://www.tangotiger.net/markov.html

https://css.answerbag.com/articles/How-to-Calculate-Runs-Created-in-Baseball/a1e320b4-8bd2-c8db-8524-1b046219a874

https://philliesblog.blogspot.com/2006/05/baseruns-battingruns-runs-created.html

https://ownersedge.fanball.com/article/2009/1/Runs-Created-2008-Review

https://ownersedge.fanball.com/article/2009/1/Runs-Created-Per-Game-2008-Review

Thank you,Thank you,Thank you

 
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Posted: #224
Quote Originally Posted by gambool:

Sports,
I would appreciate if you keep posting these "uncut" plays, it is a great support for my research.

they were for reference, to explain the "cut" formula in detail, by example...please refer to post#216 for concept.............

 
 
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Posted: #225
only had time this am for two
 
FL
SEA
 
but also like PHI.
 
Thoughts?
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