MLB system releases...

Could you give us a link to the Runs_Earned formula ? It's not in the wikipedia link and I can't find it anywhere.

Congrats on your success, 70% is huge.

Runs_Earned is Base_Runs condensed to 1/9 or by the inning..

Accuscore is a very mis-leading projection, they seldom if ever give any dog play, the claim of 10,000 applications, is a marketing tool to capture your attention.. Baseball only has 272 period....i personally find Accuscore a joke as far handicapping a ball game; they have no foundation except bait, and sell...

NO it does not take these factors in account, it's pure sabermetrics, I would recommend you go to  baseball1.com  click "sabermetrics" this will give you a detailed description of applying sabermetrics to baseball stats successfully in handicapping form

that's a typo error, excuse me, it's "Runs_Created" ditto Runs_Earned

Thanks Network, fortunately I haven't paid for a subscription there I just use the free analysis and try to evaluate the line using that among other factors.  I have actually notices a bunch of underdog plays in there but that could be because my book happens to overvalue favorites, instead of actually predicting the dog to win.

I'm going to check that site out right now.  I would love to profit from these theories and hopefully I can pick it up and learn it sooner rather than later and apply it correctly.

This would be a no play but just to throw my number out and see if it is close to others

I ran the numbers for the METS game and I got 8.52 which would have been over by 1.5. Still need to do the Cle/CHW to see what I would have got. 

Nice work Heavin-cent........and I do mean workHow long did it take you to do this?

After doing 4 hours of reading I'm not sure I am up to this challenge....sorry to get all excited before doing the required reading which I think is more like 40 hours atleast.I was putting the proverbial cart before the horsemust have got to excited with the big 70% win rate.

           If I understand this right...u take the starting lineup for both teams and each players lifetime offensive stats against the starting pitcher?Man that is a lot of work and I don't see how it is possible getting home at 6pm and researching all this info before a 7pm game?

Then put it through the formula also factoring in middle relief and closer???

I would do the work but would need a step by step process to follow and maybe an excel spreadsheet with the formula!Unfortunately this might be to difficult for me,but if we can work out some sort of system between us I would participate.

Heavin...I was thinking the same thing about looking at 5 inning plays after my brain became

The work is pretty overwhelming. I dont have all day or much time but I try to make this as simple as possible. I hope we can figure something out.

like i said earlier in the thread I had 5.66-2.57 for SF/WSH so not too far from your number. Didn't do the calc for ARZ/CIN as there were too many batters that never faced the starting pitcher in Cin.

I can do the computer work....just get me the formulas and tell me where the data is

I can help with some computer work and/or Excel also

So the picks a couple of posts above are the result of this new formula? Forgive me but I'm confused can you please explain? I read the thread twice...thanks for all of you hard work with these formulas and posting!

I'm ready. I've got time enough, computer skills and good friends, who can create excel file or program to calculate fast and simple. I strongly believe in math and stats, but I'm former pro basketball coach from EU and don't understand baseball enough for successfully using this formula :( 
And its also very difficult for me to read all that articles and books about baseball, because of the very specific English terms :(

I'm ready. I've got time enough, computer skills and good friends, who can create excel file or program to calculate fast and simple. I strongly believe in math and stats, but I'm former pro basketball coach from EU and don't understand baseball enough for successfully using this formula :( 
And its also very difficult for me to read all that articles and books about baseball, because of the very specific English terms :(

Just to see if I get lose with your #'s SN

I have the DET game at 9.77 runs. Obviously a no play with the total set at 9....