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Posted: #126
Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent:


I continue to come up with numbers that dont seem to be right. Most of the time the total runs are either in or close to double digits for each team.


I use basic version and I also have this problem, I have big numbers for a lot of games (e.g 19-14 or something). The problem occurs when A is too big. Since A=H+BB-HR we have big numbers when a hitter has been at bat many times vs the pitcher.
For batter vs pitcher stats I use Yahoo Sports : https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6751/batvspit;_ylt=Asu2wcNke4ddhp6D_ZidtQ.FCLcF?year=career&type=Pitching


I would love sports network to explain clearly how he creates the game inning by inning because base_runs is a formula for an entire game.
 
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Posted: #127
Im going to try the games for tomorrow to what I come up with. Going to try a similar formula that I came across to see if its any more accurate. 

I also have to idea about the inning by inning thing. BOL Gambool!!
 
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Posted: #128
ya agree im willing to put in the work if it means we can get 60 - 70% winning percentage. 
 
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Posted: #129
Quote Originally Posted by clint2463:

u still gonna post  picks sport...or are u finished posting...just wondering since u said it was finalized......either way thank u for your hard work on this

the 100 plays are concluded....yes, it has been finalized

 
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Posted: #130
Quote Originally Posted by clint2463:

would u email me ur picks if i put u on on my friends list...i still dont no enough yet and dont have the system working right yet,just like gambool

I have no problem with being on your FL,about e-mailing my daily picks; I am a handicapper, not a tout..my material, and data base, is used by myself exclusively, with the only factor being financial success in MLB wagering/investments.....

 
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Posted: #131
Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent:

Im not getting anywhere close to the numbers either. Thanks for everything SN I hope you keep posting a few plays if you find the time I appreciate the work

your most welcomed

 
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Posted: #132
Quote Originally Posted by NewZealandPride:

I would be grateful if you would continuous post your pics or email them to subscribers as you know, a lot of people have been following your picks. Alternatively, I guess, you could sell your picks once you've devised a nice money making system, as its proven to be successful :)

nothing for sale here, besides, what your looking for, has been published, (Base_Runs system) this thread clearly outlines it's success, and initiation...

 
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Posted: #133
Quote Originally Posted by PuckHog:

Hey guys can we all work together to figure this out ourselves and someone continue to post system plays??It sounds like some of you have been working the numbers and still haven't figured it out correctly yet.maybe SN can give us an detailed example of a game he has calculated if he has the time?Once we learn could we form a posting group and each member run the numbers for a few games each day and post them on OUR thread?
   Any suggestions??I'm willing to learn but would need some help timewise to analyze all the games each day.
   Sportsnetwork ......any comments on that idea would be appreciated and congrats on the 70% advantage ....amazing and hope you continue to post........
 

The example you seek is in the thread, in complete detail, I don't have time to be repitisous..I can only recommend you read the entire thread over again, it's all their, step by step, phase by phase; using the Base_Runs system, published for public viewing on Wikipedia link, and added info on tangtiger.com.....

 
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Posted: #134
Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent:

Im all for it PUCK. I am on here like the rest of us with the goal of making a good profit from the books. 

With that said when I use the basic version:

Base Runs = A*B/(B+C) +D.

Here is the Basic version:

A = H + BB - HR

B = [1.4*TB -.6*H -3*HR +.1*BB] *1.02

C = AB - H

D = HR


I continue to come up with numbers that dont seem to be right. Most of the time the total runs are either in or close to double digits for each team. 

With this version:

Here is a version which includes some minor categories in which certain players excel:

A = H + BB + HBP - HR - .5*IBB

B = [1.4*TB -.6*H -3*HR +.1*(BB+HBP-IBB) +.9*(SB-CS-GDP)] *1.1

C = AB - H + CS + GDP

D = HR

I have trouble finding some of the stats and not sure if the numbers are that much more accurate. 


I hope we can figure this out soon so we can get a good profit for the season. 



I understand the stats question, for example, IBB=IntentionalBaseonBalls(a stat that is difficult to locate,but available) you can't merely classify this stat as a walk; because it's tech not..and there many reasons for this, one being, your adjusting the formula to your dis-advantage when you leave it's description...

 
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Posted: #135
Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent:

SportsNetwork if you have any advice or the criteria that you imply (bb, gidp, etc....) it would be great. What would be great is if you can plug this into an EXCEL sheet that we could download through Email or whatever. Anybody have any input??

My only advice, and recommendation, would be to understand MLB, and how it's played..to understand the sabermetrician stats approach to handicapping MLB..to understand the Base_Runs and Runs_Earned formulated systems, which are published for your convienience....

 
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Posted: #136

Quote Originally Posted by gambool:



I use basic version and I also have this problem, I have big numbers for a lot of games (e.g 19-14 or something). The problem occurs when A is too big. Since A=H+BB-HR we have big numbers when a hitter has been at bat many times vs the pitcher.
For batter vs pitcher stats I use Yahoo Sports : https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6751/batvspit;_ylt=Asu2wcNke4ddhp6D_ZidtQ.FCLcF?year=career&type=Pitching


I would love sports network to explain clearly how he creates the game inning by inning because base_runs is a formula for an entire game.

Your intuition is mis-leading you ; "an entire game, correct, inning by inning is the incorporation of the Runs_Earned formula", explained in detail by tomtango in the Wikipedia link...

 

All stats information is available at;  EliasSportsBureau.com  The official scorekeeper for MLB (they have every at bat, since 1913)   to present......

also, you can enter the data base for each team through the local newspaper's sport section...EXCELLENT source

 
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Posted: #137
Lets put the time in boys and see what we can come up with!!!
I purchased the book by Tango and will try and get through it soon.. Lets keep trying to work on the formula and see what we come up with..
 
Thanks for all the information sports_Network!!!!
 
 
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Posted: #138
Quote Originally Posted by rman1049:

Lets put the time in boys and see what we can come up with!!!
I purchased the book by Tango and will try and get through it soon.. Lets keep trying to work on the formula and see what we come up with..
 
Thanks for all the information sports_Network!!!!
 

Good call 1049,  the book,(which I read in detail with a marker, and used many times as an educational tool,and referance guide..

also did extensive research on sabermetrics, and how to apply mathimatics correctly to Base_Runs....

 

 
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Posted: #139
Network, I have put in a Friend request, hopefully you will except.  I would also be interested in receiving your picks if you could kindly mail them to me...
 
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Posted: #140
manifesto, no problem with the request
 
Prospect
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Posted: #141
For today's games I have the Mets vs Braves at 9-3.4 and Giants vs Nationals at 5.65-2.57. Are you guys close of these numbers ?
I miss batter vs pitcher data for the 2 other games.
 
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Posted: #142
un-published data base results, and final assessment: 05/11/09
 
total games handicapped-162
wins-112
losses-50
total games"cut-" 62
wins-42
losses-20
                this essentially means Base_Runs is capable of going 100-0 powered at 100% ... had I made the correct decision of what winning games I cut from the 100 game format, the 30 losses could have been replaced by any of the 42 dis- regarded wins, with still, 12 to spare....
 
order of lean strength:
1) totals
2) RL
3) dog
4) ML
 
Although not connected to the designed formula, after final review, the 5 innings play trac, showed a 78% win ratio/ both in totals, and ml wagers combined....final
 
 
next:MLB TenTen formulated/system..........
 
 
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Posted: #143
Network-
Have been following your posts and reviewing your work. Very Impressive and thanks for the effort. My numbers also have been high in using the formula for totals. Thanks- if you are posting/emailing elsewhere I'd be interested in confirming the strength of my plays. 
 
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Posted: #144
Quote Originally Posted by ca_cris:

Network-
Have been following your posts and reviewing your work. Very Impressive and thanks for the effort. My numbers also have been high in using the formula for totals. Thanks- if you are posting/emailing elsewhere I'd be interested in confirming the strength of my plays. 

I will confirm through PM only

 
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Posted: #145
Quote Originally Posted by gambool:

For today's games I have the Mets vs Braves at 9-3.4 and Giants vs Nationals at 5.65-2.57. Are you guys close of these numbers ?
I miss batter vs pitcher data for the 2 other games.

May I ask which form are you using? Basic? I got an Over play in the Mets vs Braves game but I still think Im missing something. I am going to go through this thread again and try to catch a few more things. 

Network -  can you send a friends request? Im on my MacBook and it doesnt show where I can send one to you. Id like to keep in touch to see if we can join you with the BsR. 
 
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Posted: #146

Sports_Network - awesome job here man!

I just read this thread in its entirety and it seems so intersting/profitable/time consuming, and I want to commend your efforts thus far and although I wasn't fortunate enough to read the thread and follow your picks real-time, thus not profiting off of your analysis, I am intrigued and want to help everyone in the thread out in any way I can so we can all break the bank!

 
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Posted: #147
Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent:


May I ask which form are you using? Basic? I got an Over play in the Mets vs Braves game but I still think Im missing something. I am going to go through this thread again and try to catch a few more things. 

Network -  can you send a friends request? Im on my MacBook and it doesnt show where I can send one to you. Id like to keep in touch to see if we can join you with the BsR. 

you may have 'slipped' on your reading of the applied mathematics attached to Base_Runs, and remember you also have Runs_Earned to incorporate...If you miss one piece of the equation, the system becomes a dis-advantage, one thing for sure, you'll know when you have it working correctly, it just happens by trial, and error..if it gives you a better understanding, I went through research, just to learn how to initiate it's application. tip: one must understand sabermetrics, and apply them in reading the prescribed formula(knowing when to add multiply divide subtract square and fraction off, as indicated) and comprehend the index abreviations....

 
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Posted: #148
Quote Originally Posted by diamonddicer:

Sports_Network - awesome job here man!

I just read this thread in its entirety and it seems so intersting/profitable/time consuming, and I want to commend your efforts thus far and although I wasn't fortunate enough to read the thread and follow your picks real-time, thus not profiting off of your analysis, I am intrigued and want to help everyone in the thread out in any way I can so we can all break the bank!

constructive insight is always welcomed, and refreshing to hear

 
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Posted: #149
i sent you a friend request sport....thanks again for all your work on this system..i will also try to get the book to read for more insight on this...
 
 
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Posted: #150
Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent:


May I ask which form are you using? Basic? I got an Over play in the Mets vs Braves game but I still think Im missing something. I am going to go through this thread again and try to catch a few more things. 


Yes I use basic, lately I tried to calibrate the stats so that the total "at bats" is closer to the average of the total at bats of one MLB game... But i'm just doing research, I think my approach is probably wrong. My numbers are probably way less accurate than those of sports_network, but maybe I'll be able to tell the outcome of a game when there is a big gap in the score.
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