Posted:
#1351
Acortazz..I agree
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MLB system releases...
Posted:
#1353
Quote Originally Posted by DarkHorse21:
Sir, I totally agree with you, but I can't help to think that maybe you did not hear my entire statement, what I am saying is that if the value is there on a specific day, then Yes, Bet, but if it is not, then take the day off and play a game of golf. Example...if you have 7 good bets out of 14 games (50% of the game) you bet 1 unit each game and you lose 4 leaving 3 you win, are you not already in the negative?, lets say that you lose 3 and when 4, yes you are up 1 unit, but has time goes on that unit may or may not go into the negative. My entire statement is this "It is a whole lot easier to isolate 1 game out of 14 then it would be to pick 4-7 gams out of 14. And yes I have read this entire thread, and I have utilized it into my formula's, I AM NOT TRYING TO ALIENATE ANYONE HERE. Since like everyone else I am only trying to voice my opinion, Nothing more okay. I respect everyone here. Also I would like to state this, after placing my picks, my final score came up with Ariz winning by 2 or more and over 9.5. I could be wrong. By the way tell me more about betus and oddsmaker, since I am getting up to serious money with them.
You are making several wrong assumptions. If you're going to bet serious money, don't do so at Betus or Oddsmaker. Or at least know their background. The idea of betting numerous bets per day has nothing to do with getting rich quick. The best are value-based. If there is value, bet. If there is no value, don't bet. You are the one introducing a get-rich-quick scheme, but doubling up until you hit the jackpot will get you nowhere. The bet sizing in this thread is very profitable, but you won't see it unless you take the time to study, which is what this entire thread is about.
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Posted:
#1354
i was just wondering how you got those stats considering i feel like everything is in COLs favor seven, not trying to bash just trying to understand yours picks. I actually was going to bet COL RL so anything you have in ARIs favori would like to know. You also know their best hitter just got traded as well correct?? and they are traveling to a complete different place then they were playing at before, and COL SP has dominated ARI except for Reynolds and they are on a hot streak.
Again not trying to bash just wondering your thinking towards this game
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Posted:
#1355
Quote Originally Posted by acortazz:
Time Out...this game is going to be alot closer then I thought. After relooking back into my calculation, I think I made a grave mistake, by not inputting Col Tb, (Computer Clinch), , this made a grave mistake on my part, but it WILL not be a garantee win for ARIZ, ARIZ still has a very slight advantage, based on the combination of pitchers, PH, and the fact that ARIZ has already beaten Colorado twice in Colorado, I cannot change my bet, but I will wait and see i was just wondering how you got those stats considering i feel like everything is in COLs favor seven, not trying to bash just trying to understand yours picks. I actually was going to bet COL RL so anything you have in ARIs favori would like to know. You also know their best hitter just got traded as well correct?? and they are traveling to a complete different place then they were playing at before, and COL SP has dominated ARI except for Reynolds and they are on a hot streak.
Again not trying to bash just wondering your thinking towards this game
, But I do strongly believe in my way of calulating the strong Lean, PLEASE do not rely on my bets or picks, until I show a consistent pattern okay?
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Posted:
#1356
i was just wondering how you came about it thats all as we have been talking about how people came abuot thier picks throughuot the whole thread if you dont want to people to question your picks then why even bother posting them?? If i posted something and someone asked how i came about it i wouldnt mind posting all the information i used for it
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Posted:
#1357
Quote Originally Posted by acortazz:
I am sorry about that, I guess since I started making my picks, and people always questioned, I became defensive, sorry, now I will attempt to explain my process in calculating these picks, first, I take all the state from both teams, (Win % against each other (pointspread.com), I then take the Home WIn Loss Record, Win Loss Div, East, West, Central, RH, LH, Pitchers Win/Loss) the average score allowed and given, , Ball Park Factors) Taking these numbers I calculated the rough win loss of this game, in this particular game I was looking at Colorado 54%, but, Ariz, L1, Color W1, Davis for Arizona is in the top 20 of there Division while De La is not, so I gave a slight advantage toward Arizona in that area So I researched both teams, and realized that Arizona I believe has already beaten Colorado twice in Colorado., Taking these numbers I calculated that with the Run Count that Colorado will be favored, So I calculated the same number in the RC-27 Formula and observed that Color was slightly favored, so I then conducted a third calculation in Runs created per game and estimated that Arizona was favored in that area, then taking all the run counts from each test, I estimated that Colorado would win the game by less then 2 runs, so now we have what 5 calculation and Color ahead by 1, so using the John Nash theory of probabilities and outcomes, colorado was less then 1 run ahead, Has for Lopez being traded, that really did not make a difference in the lifetime states, since his record was 3 hits in 16 AB against Colorado Pitchers. I will more then likely loss this game since in several test the TB was not fuly inclused in all the batters, due to a Computer clinch, but if you look at the underdog therey, as well as the chase theory you will still see that if a Underdog team will win then this is the one it definetely has all the signs of being it, and in addition it is a very well known fact that 33% of all games are won by the underdog. So time will tell on this one, but I am hoping that it will go in my favor.i was just wondering how you came about it thats all as we have been talking about how people came abuot thier picks throughuot the whole thread if you dont want to people to question your picks then why even bother posting them?? If i posted something and someone asked how i came about it i wouldnt mind posting all the information i used for it
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Posted:
#1358
Alot of no data, low data, for these pitchers today...Strictly the math here.
1ST 5 FULL GAME PITCHER BsR
FULL GAME
NYM NO DATA NO DATA NO DATA
WAS 3.862 6.125 5.762
CHC 4.078 7.015 3.975
PHI 1.960 3.674 4.724
BAL 2.871 4.672 5.902
NYY NO DATA NO DATA 4.834
MIL NO DATA NO DATA 3.961
PIT LOW DATA LOW DATA 7.192
SFG NO DATA NO DATA 3.180
ATL 5.393 7.936 5.669
Lines are from Matchbook:
CHC 1ST 5 INNINGS +102
PIT +100
ATL-1.5 +125
1ST 5 FULL GAME PITCHER BsR
FULL GAME
NYM NO DATA NO DATA NO DATA
WAS 3.862 6.125 5.762
CHC 4.078 7.015 3.975
PHI 1.960 3.674 4.724
BAL 2.871 4.672 5.902
NYY NO DATA NO DATA 4.834
MIL NO DATA NO DATA 3.961
PIT LOW DATA LOW DATA 7.192
SFG NO DATA NO DATA 3.180
ATL 5.393 7.936 5.669
Lines are from Matchbook:
CHC 1ST 5 INNINGS +102
PIT +100
ATL-1.5 +125
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Posted:
#1359
1ST 5 FULL GAME PITCHER BsR
FULL GAME
BOS 4.532 6.453 3.792
TEX LOW DATA LOW DATA 3.761
STL 5.148 7.691 5.652
HOU 3.722 6.234 6.050
LAA 5.808 8.527 4.260
KAN NO DATA NO DATA 4.248
TAM 4.715 7.186 3.622
CWS NO DATA NO DATA 7.254
ARI 1.950 3.347 4.435
COL 5.861 9.258 5.139
BOS/TEX OVER 9.5
STL/HOU OVER 9.5
ARI +141
FULL GAME
BOS 4.532 6.453 3.792
TEX LOW DATA LOW DATA 3.761
STL 5.148 7.691 5.652
HOU 3.722 6.234 6.050
LAA 5.808 8.527 4.260
KAN NO DATA NO DATA 4.248
TAM 4.715 7.186 3.622
CWS NO DATA NO DATA 7.254
ARI 1.950 3.347 4.435
COL 5.861 9.258 5.139
BOS/TEX OVER 9.5
STL/HOU OVER 9.5
ARI +141
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MMI
Posted:
#1365
Quote Originally Posted by sevenleighton:
I am sorry about that, I guess since I started making my picks, and people always questioned, I became defensive, sorry, now I will attempt to explain my process in calculating these picks, first, I take all the state from both teams, (Win % against each other (pointspread.com), I then take the Home WIn Loss Record, Win Loss Div, East, West, Central, RH, LH, Pitchers Win/Loss) the average score allowed and given, , Ball Park Factors) Taking these numbers I calculated the rough win loss of this game, in this particular game I was looking at Colorado 54%, but, Ariz, L1, Color W1, Davis for Arizona is in the top 20 of there Division while De La is not, so I gave a slight advantage toward Arizona in that area So I researched both teams, and realized that Arizona I believe has already beaten Colorado twice in Colorado., Taking these numbers I calculated that with the Run Count that Colorado will be favored, So I calculated the same number in the RC-27 Formula and observed that Color was slightly favored, so I then conducted a third calculation in Runs created per game and estimated that Arizona was favored in that area, then taking all the run counts from each test, I estimated that Colorado would win the game by less then 2 runs, so now we have what 5 calculation and Color ahead by 1, so using the John Nash theory of probabilities and outcomes, colorado was less then 1 run ahead, Has for Lopez being traded, that really did not make a difference in the lifetime states, since his record was 3 hits in 16 AB against Colorado Pitchers. I will more then likely loss this game since in several test the TB was not fuly inclused in all the batters, due to a Computer clinch, but if you look at the underdog therey, as well as the chase theory you will still see that if a Underdog team will win then this is the one it definetely has all the signs of being it, and in addition it is a very well known fact that 33% of all games are won by the underdog. So time will tell on this one, but I am hoping that it will go in my favor.
I am sorry about that, I guess since I started making my picks, and people always questioned, I became defensive, sorry, now I will attempt to explain my process in calculating these picks, first, I take all the state from both teams, (Win % against each other (pointspread.com), I then take the Home WIn Loss Record, Win Loss Div, East, West, Central, RH, LH, Pitchers Win/Loss) the average score allowed and given, , Ball Park Factors) Taking these numbers I calculated the rough win loss of this game, in this particular game I was looking at Colorado 54%, but, Ariz, L1, Color W1, Davis for Arizona is in the top 20 of there Division while De La is not, so I gave a slight advantage toward Arizona in that area So I researched both teams, and realized that Arizona I believe has already beaten Colorado twice in Colorado., Taking these numbers I calculated that with the Run Count that Colorado will be favored, So I calculated the same number in the RC-27 Formula and observed that Color was slightly favored, so I then conducted a third calculation in Runs created per game and estimated that Arizona was favored in that area, then taking all the run counts from each test, I estimated that Colorado would win the game by less then 2 runs, so now we have what 5 calculation and Color ahead by 1, so using the John Nash theory of probabilities and outcomes, colorado was less then 1 run ahead, Has for Lopez being traded, that really did not make a difference in the lifetime states, since his record was 3 hits in 16 AB against Colorado Pitchers. I will more then likely loss this game since in several test the TB was not fuly inclused in all the batters, due to a Computer clinch, but if you look at the underdog therey, as well as the chase theory you will still see that if a Underdog team will win then this is the one it definetely has all the signs of being it, and in addition it is a very well known fact that 33% of all games are won by the underdog. So time will tell on this one, but I am hoping that it will go in my favor.
HEY ALL: I am truly SORRY, since because of my pride and stubborness I made a mistake in my calculation in regards to the ARIZONA - COLORADO game. Since after re-thinking the entire scenerio, I do have to concur that if the system truly works without any bias....then Colorado should be the bet. But if Arizona does win, it will only be because of the Underdog and the Chase the Winner/Loser Therey. But because of reasons, I do hope that Arizona does work, only because my outcome says it will be a close game and over 9.5. FRIENDS?????
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Posted:
#1367
Quote Originally Posted by MeMyselfandEye:
parden my error..not ARI.....COL-1.5 +141
parden my error..not ARI.....COL-1.5 +141
This game (ARIZ/COLORADO) could be interesting, since I still believe the combination of systems I am using could be effective< since even though the mass calculations did make it close, the VERY slight edge did go to ARIZ, with the LEAN over 9.5, and the score is 2-2 in the 2nd, WISH ME LUCK ALL
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Posted:
#1369
Quote Originally Posted by sevenleighton:
This game (ARIZ/COLORADO) could be interesting, since I still believe the combination of systems I am using could be effective< since even though the mass calculations did make it close, the VERY slight edge did go to ARIZ, with the LEAN over 9.5, and the score is 2-2 in the 2nd, WISH ME LUCK ALL
I notice a lot of Box Scores are showing this game as 2-2 in the Bottom of the 2nd.. I can 100% assure you it is 2-0 Colorado in the Bottom of the 2nd, and Colorado is threatening for more..
And as I type, the pitcher, De Rosa lays down a great squueze play and scores a run.
3-0 Colorado bottom 2nd, Ianetta on 2nd, 2 out.
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Posted:
#1372
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:
It is still early.. but I don't know if Arizona can overcome a 5 run deficit.. Fowler home run ..
5-0 Colorado
Yes I totally agree since the lean does tend in the direction of Colorado, but the game is early and like I have always said, no one can totally predict every game, the ultimate outcome is what we do with the information we obtain, in our quest
It is still early.. but I don't know if Arizona can overcome a 5 run deficit.. Fowler home run ..
5-0 Colorado
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Posted:
#1373
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]
MLB system releases Monday 07/20/09 Base_Runs formula...
NYM/WAS OVER 8.5...loss
SF/ATL UNDER 8...loss
ARI/COL UNDER 9.5...loss
BOS/TEX OVER 9...push
LAA/KC OVER 8.5...ppd
WhiteSox+110 ML...win
sixPACformulated
SN
FINAL RESULTS:
1-3-ppd-push
units: +2
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