Posted:
#626
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]
MLB system releases Thursday 06/11/09
Mariners+155 top dog** ....win +8units
MLB system releases...
GL Kemosabe
Posted:
#633
Quote Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:
SN,
WIth so few career stats to compare pitchers vs. batters, how do you handicap interleague games? The only real trend I noticed is that you are backing all home teams and mostly stud pitchers, but I can't imagine you are doing too many BR or RC calculations this weekend.
Good observance, based on the differentials in inter-league play, I have altered my form.. I am using Runs Expectancy matrix / Runs Frequency matrix, with the iniciation of a Linear Weights Generator, innovated by Andrew Dolphin, applied to MLB stats, as a 'tool' for handicapping inter-league games/P+DH/
The complete formula is explained in detail, and in-depth, go to.... tangotiger.net/markov.html .....click..Book. then surf, and research SN
There seems to be alot of Amer.League and Unders in Interleague.
Posted:
#636
Awesome, I will spend a few hours with those articles this afternoon.
Last question today.......Do you find that interleague is a harder project to conquer based on the contrasting leagues and the lack of stats? Or do you think that baseball teams are baseball teams and it is no more difficult to handicap interleague than intra-league.
Posted:
#639
Quote Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:
Awesome, I will spend a few hours with those articles this afternoon.
Last question today.......Do you find that interleague is a harder project to conquer based on the contrasting leagues and the lack of stats? Or do you think that baseball teams are baseball teams and it is no more difficult to handicap interleague than intra-league.
Not at all.. you simply adopt an inter-league application to form, and switch formula's to RE/RF....SN
Posted:
#645
SN,
I went through and read all of those articles. Very interesting stuff. I look forward to testing a few of these out.
I found this summary of the key calculations on tangotiger. Unfortunately I think the author messed up some of the parentheses needed in his RC and LWTS calcs. Can you clarify these for me?
plus
= 1.0 * 1b
+ 1.6 * 2b
+ 2.2 * 3b
+ 3.0 * HR
+ 0.7 * nibb
+ 0.7 * hbp
+ 0.4 * ibb
+ 0.4 * sb
- 0.4 * cs
minus
= AB-H + SF + CS
LWR = plus/minus
= 1.0 * 1b
+ 1.6 * 2b
+ 2.2 * 3b
+ 3.0 * HR
+ 0.7 * nibb
+ 0.7 * hbp
+ 0.4 * ibb
+ 0.4 * sb
- 0.4 * cs
minus
= AB-H + SF + CS
LWR = plus/minus
To convert to runs, you can use these estimators:
RC/out = .47 * LWR - .10
RC = .47 * plus - .10 * minus
LWTS = (.47 * LWR - .27) * minus
= .47 * plus - .27 * minus
RC/out = .47 * LWR - .10
RC = .47 * plus - .10 * minus
LWTS = (.47 * LWR - .27) * minus
= .47 * plus - .27 * minus
Posted:
#646
Quote Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:
SN,
I went through and read all of those articles. Very interesting stuff. I look forward to testing a few of these out.
I found this summary of the key calculations on tangotiger. Unfortunately I think the author messed up some of the parentheses needed in his RC and LWTS calcs. Can you clarify these for me?
plus
= 1.0 * 1b
+ 1.6 * 2b
+ 2.2 * 3b
+ 3.0 * HR
+ 0.7 * nibb
+ 0.7 * hbp
+ 0.4 * ibb
+ 0.4 * sb
- 0.4 * cs
minus
= AB-H + SF + CS
LWR = plus/minus
= 1.0 * 1b
+ 1.6 * 2b
+ 2.2 * 3b
+ 3.0 * HR
+ 0.7 * nibb
+ 0.7 * hbp
+ 0.4 * ibb
+ 0.4 * sb
- 0.4 * cs
minus
= AB-H + SF + CS
LWR = plus/minus
To convert to runs, you can use these estimators:
RC/out = .47 * LWR - .10
RC = .47 * plus - .10 * minus
LWTS = (.47 * LWR - .27) * minus
= .47 * plus - .27 * minus
RC/out = .47 * LWR - .10
RC = .47 * plus - .10 * minus
LWTS = (.47 * LWR - .27) * minus
= .47 * plus - .27 * minus
Go to the glossary, it gives application through iniciated 'terms'
of mathematic formula's, this is much more simpler, than it projects...SN
Posted:
#650
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]
MLB system releases Friday 06/12/09 Base_Runs formula.....
Rays-110 RL...........L
BlueJays-120 RL.....L
Yankees+105 RL.....L
RedSox+130 RL......W
Giants-145..............W
Diamondbacks+110 RL....W
Rockies+175 RL............. W
seven pac
FINAL RESULTS:
4-3
units:+10.25
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