For Fun - Anything but favorite win by 1 run chase

So..inspired by Supereagles martingale chase, and looking for a little fun .. I have set aside $500 for my own all or nothing chase..  but a little different. I am sure you have all heard of  betting both sides of a game, on the Dog  and the Favorite -1.5 at plus money so that the only losing outcome is a fave win by exactly one run.. over the season its a losing bet.. but i am gonna chase this hoping that for the rest of the season i can avoid 2 losses in a row ( that is avoid picking 2 games in a row where the fave wins by exactly one run).. the plan is to divide the roll by 10  ..and that equals the total amount of my 1st bet  (i.e 5% per side) ..if the 1st bet loses.. double down the rest of the roll on the 2nd..  so its simple..avoid 1 run games !!!

If i can make it to the end of the year.. increasing my roll on avg 2% per day ..my $500 will be almost 10k ..  so basically i am betting $500 at 20-1 that i can do this ..suckerbet ? ..we'll see

so ...lets get it on

starting roll $500

7pm bet     Pirates  +113     $25 to win $53.25

                Brewers -1.5   +123     $25 to win  $55.75

 

If this game is done in time my 2nd bet will be the  Yanks/Oakland game..

So just a two day chase huh?  2 losses in a row and it's done?

you got it ..somedays 3 ..if there are afternoon games..2 straight losses and its $500        .... more for fun than anything..

4/21/2010 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 905 Milwaukee Brewers* -1½ +125 vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Y Gallardo - R Listed   Z Duke - L Listed
Risking $25.00 To Win $31.25

4/21/2010 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 906 Pittsburgh Pirates* +118 vs Milwaukee Brewers
Y Gallardo - R Listed   Z Duke - L Listed
Risking $25.00 To Win $29.50

 

not being a smart ass, but how do you get $25 wins $55 + ???

the $55 includes the original bet..jus tthe way my book show sit ...same as $25 to win $30.75 ....

neilsy, what % of games end with a 1 run difference?

rizz..about 15% of the time the fave wins by 1 run ..

assuming milwuakee doesnt score 6 in the last 2 innings..looks like 1-0

next play tonite gonna be

Baltimore +170   25.28 to win 40.26

Seattle - 1.5  +110  25.28 to win 28.09

 

 

So you have about a 98% chance of winning one of the two.... That is pretty good.  I think you meant PIT scoring 6.  Unfortunately I was on the wrong side on that one.  98% is hella good odds for a two game chase.

I think I may try to roll with you on this.  I am going to check the number of 1 run games last year.  Be back in a few minutes.

Theres already been a few series where all 3 games were 1 run games this year.

ya i meant Pitt .. rizz .. simple query on sportsdatabase  ..done it all the way back to 2004.. always in the 85% range

Hectar  . not playing full series.. just tryin to pick my spots..

not sure how you got 98% rizz.. but this i far from solid.. it is a 2 game chase where losing the 2nd game costs u 100 units  ..so even if you win 98% of the time.. and lose 2%.. u lose..iam rollin the dice here...gambooooooool

not sure how you got 98% rizz.. but this i far from solid.. it is a 2 game chase where losing the 2nd game costs u 100 units  ..so even if you win 98% of the time.. and lose 2%.. u lose..iam rollin the dice here...gambooooooool

Okay,

Ran the numbers for 2009.  330 games the favored team won by 1 run out of around 2350 games = 14%.  The odds of picking two games in a row is 1.97%

sounds good to me !  ..

I have an opening game favorite chase where we chase based on opening odds > -145.  Here are the numbers for 2009.

ML = 178-75,   RL = 140-113, so in 38 of these games the favorite would win by 1 run.  30/253 games lose = 11.9 %.  Odds of losing two in a row = 1.4%.  You may want to stick to these kinds of plays.

I get that percentage by taking the chance to lose one game 11.9% and multiplying it by the chance to lose another game.

.119 x .119 = .014.

 

So you have about 49:1 to not hit the landmine!  This should be interesting...  You are going to make two plays per day??

most days..somedays 3 ...there may be no plays somedays.. depending on the lines,, has to be + money on both sides...generally my strategy is to try and pick home dogs as much as possible.. (should narrow down the 1 run games).and otherwise look at the teams recent form .and get lucky !!

2-0 tonite..1 day down..149 to go..lol

 

starting roll = $500

current roll = $508.56

Game 1 record : 2-0

Game 2 record  0-0

 

looks like it will just be one game today

Cubs +137   $25.43 to win  $34.84

Mets  - 1.5  +136   $25.43 to win  $34.51

 

That might be fun...I wont play it, but I will definately watch and

Here is an idea Neilsy.  Start with higher bet amounts to make it worth while and do a 3 game Martingale just randomly picking 1 game like this each day.  Or if there are games with staggered time slots you could get multiple games.  What would be the odds of losing taking this approach rizz?

Cab you figure what a starting role $500 would turn into doing it the way I suggested?  Im not a math wiz.  I might give this a try if it looks worthwhile on a 3 gamer.

i looked at a 3 gamer  ..but if I truly want to martingale..and using an average getting +120 on each side ..roughly you need to 10X the bet for each next level .. i.e .. to chase 3 games with $500 ..first bet total is  $5 ..2nd $50 ..and 3rd $500 .. would take a while to build a roll like this,..

also i am definetely playing multiple games per day..if the odds are there..unfortunately today both early games do not have plus odds on the ML...nor does the late one..