Guys, I'm looking at this from a bigger viewpoint. I'm not sure we're on the same page. Placing 2 bets on each game that fits (+ odds for RL fav. and underdog) yields a win 43% of the time. This is according to rizz's work on 2009. If you start labby lines at 1-1-1-1 and you bet 2 to win 2 (actually win a little more because of the + odds) and you lose, the next bet is 3 not 10. You're not trying to clear out the whole thing with one bet. Maybe this is where the confusion is. Neilsy's saying to clear the whole line would take 10 in the next bet. This is where he's at now.
At a 43% win rate you can clear a line that started with 4 places on average every 14 bets as long as you follow the rules of the labby line. This isn't going to produce the return that Neilsy was shooting for when he started this endeavour, but it got me to thinking how to use his idea to provide a consistent return. Clearing a line every 14 bets nets you a 4% return on your bankroll. Just seems a little smarter way to do it in the long run. I like the idea of having the two bets on every game with just a small window of failure. Using labby consistently will eliminate the risk of failure almost completely. The return takes longer but if you're running 14 lines and betting 14 games a day in baseball you'll be clearing a line every day on average.
your next bet after a loss (whether it comes from the RL or underdog or both) on the line is going to be
kirby,
The issue is with the bankroll. If you had a huge roll you could do this. Since he is betting on both sides of the line he is winning a small amount proportional to what he is putting on the line. He has 460 on the line today to win 80 bucks or so. If he lost the bet and had to add it to his labby line he would need to bet almost 3,000 to try to recoup that loss. So yes it could work over the long term but you would need a ridulously large bankroll to cover these kinds of bets.
rizz, I disagree. He started this particular series with PIT/HOU to win a total of $12 if HOU won on the RL or $15 if PIT won. A labby line of 5-5-5-5 would accomplish the same thing and also fit well with a bankroll of $500. You wouldn't get a 2% a day return but you could get a 4% a week return by running 2 labby lines of
5-5-5-5 The bankroll could get to 10K with discipline. It can be done because I did it this last NCAA football season using a method very similar to this principle.
i can't explain it any clearer.. i have never said this is going to make money.. its GAMBLING .. i set aside $500 for fun ..to see how long i can run this.. so please nobody else come in here and tell me its a a bad idea .. I KNOW ,,,its for fun .. kkirby.. i am not sure i understand your concept..
lab line ,,
10 10 10 10
so if you are betting to win the outside numbers i.e 20 ..you are going to need to to bet at least 100 units on each side of the game... unless you are just betting the amount on each outside... i,e..your betting 10 units on each side.. if thats the case after game 1 win your line will be
9 10 10 9..
this line would never clear in 14 days...prob npt even all season ..
Established in 1995,
Anxiety? He knew he would be in this situation after just 1 loss. Sure the odds of a 1 run game are low, but just think how low the odds of a 1 run game in every game of a series are? And it already happened in 3 series already this season. This is not smart gambling.
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