For Fun - Anything but favorite win by 1 run chase

its hard to calculate exactly.. because the winners will all be at different odds. . but if you just look at it as increasing your roll by 2% each day it is fairly easy to figure out.. yesterday for example i only increased the roll 1.7% ,,however today it would be more than that if i win   .. i am looking to play this for 150 days ...which would turn my $500 into $9749.80 ..at 2%/day ..  add in that 3rd game and you will only have $674.73 after 150 days.. because you will only be increasing your roll .002%/day ..

Thanks guy.

starting roll = $500

current roll = $517.64

Game 1 record : 3-0

Game 2 record  0-0

It still seems to be a lot of fun though...

Keep rollin Neilsy!

Can you determine anything about how close a game is projected to be by the total?

what do you mean?  The total score of a previous game or do you mean where the over/under is set beforehand?

2 days down 148 to go !  ..tonite

Pirates +145   25.88 to win  37.53

Astros  - 1.5 +125    25.88 to win 32.35

- If all is looking well hoping to get a 2nd bet in later on either Indians/A's or Cards/Giants

GO SENS GO !

626/2319 ended as a 1 run game in 2009

Opening O/U                               Total games

7-8.5 = 274, 43.8%                     964, 41.5%

9 = 161,  25.7%                          547, 23.5%

9.5 = 117, 18.7%                       448, 19.3%

10= 40, 6.4%                            225, 9.7%

10.5+= 34, 5.4                        135,5.8%         

Looks like there may be a lower proportion of 1 run games in the higher run total games which intuitively makes sense but I dont know if this is statistically significant                        

thanks  Rizz ,, you using sportsdatabase for this ?

No I just used excel and calculated it from all the results from last year.  looks like you have a little lower probability of picking a 1 run game with an O/U 9.5 or higher

Well you just convinced me to stay the hell away from Linecum and the Cards/Giants for my 2nd game tonite with a toal of 6.5

doesnt look like i am gonna get a late game in ,.. this game is lookin like a 1 run houston win ..lets go pittsburgh

level 2 game comin tommorow..

Neilsy,

I was on SF -1.5 and OAK who both had low totals.  Trust your gut.  You can do it.  I am watching closely.  I don't want to say anything that would influence you, i wouldn't feel very good about it if you did it and lost, esp on a game 2.  Good luck tomorrow!

Level 2 bet

Indians +136   $232.94 to win  $316.18

A's - 1.5  + 134    $232.94 to win  $312.14

 

make sure you consider the total (u want high), the ballpark and the run differential of opponents.  focus there more so than trying to get the highest plus odds on each side.  good luck!

would you want to look for road favorites...do they have a higher percentage of winning by more then one run with x'ing out the walk off possibility?

rizz, when you looked at 2009 you found 14% of the games were 1-run fav. wins. That translates to a 43% win rate on your overall bets. (ex. 100 games you lose both sides on 14%, 28 losing bets so you win 50% of the remaining bets or 86 bets overall from 200 bets. 86/114 = 43%)

Using lab lines we know that anything over 40% will clear lines consistently (albeit sometimes a long time) so to me it seems like this is a no-brainer. Throw in the fact that you're making these bets at +120 and above and it seems as if it's a moneymaker.

akro, that's a great point. The odds would probably be less on the RL but if they are still a + number, all's good.

And split it up between two or more books so that the book wouldn't know this is what you're doing and you could probably maximize the odds with the slight variations.

Lab lines would eliminate the anxiety Neilsy's going thru now.

Just did a quick simulation using lab lines and at 43% win rate you would clear a line every 14 days at a net profit of 4% to your bankroll. This was just using even money lines (+100). Add in the extra points above +100 and your return is greater. Rizz, you seem to be a lot better with spreadsheets than I am. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on this.

 

how do you figure ..you need to bet 10 units to win 1...so if you line is

1-1-1-1... and you lose your line is now  1-1-1-1-10 ..now u have to bet 110 units ti win 11...lab line won't work for this..

Yeah, I don't think labby would work for this.  You have to wager so much to recoup your losses