Destroy the Books! *Double your Bankroll*

Also, I feel like a fucking retard for spelling his name wrong at least 3 times.

You are clearly a lay-fan. Hope you don't have money on Lesnar. Enjoy the card!

Hey dj

Couple of questions for you.

1.  How do you find the "value" plays  -  I get the edge comparison when comparing Vegas and Provincial Lotteries.  But when playing only Vegas how do you know if you are getting an edge?

2.  What determines the % of BR you wager on each bet you make?  Strength of the play based on capping?  Edge value?

Thanks for posting your plays and sharing advice on how to make money. 

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Another money making night with the hockey.  Nice work DJ.

NFL today dj ?

Record: 42-33-0
Bankroll: $7363.87
Wagered: $11833.87
Returned: $14197.74
Net: +$2363.87
ROI: +19.98%
_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _

Eagles [+129] 3%
Bucs -3 [-110] 3%

6pt Teaser Special
Chiefs -3, Seahawks -1, Broncos -1 ($50 to win $100)

Be back with the update + more!

Phew that was fucking close.  Got them all.  Sweating bullets now.  Yikes

1. I determine value through personal capping which is not nearly as mathematically sound or as reliable as finding edges with your provincial lottery corp...

2. The % is dependent on the edge I've determined... If I have a 5% edge, I'll bet 5% of my bankroll -- not scientific by any means but it gets the job done. If I really wanted to be in line with proper gambling techniques, I'd be using Kelly Criterion. 

Record: 42-33-0
Bankroll: $7363.87
Wagered: $11833.87
Returned: $14197.74
Net: +$2363.87
ROI: +19.98%
_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _

Eagles [+129] 3% -220.92 to win 284.99
Bucs -3 [-110] 3%  -220.92 to win 200.84

6pt Teaser Special
Chiefs -3, Seahawks -1, Broncos -1 (-50 to win 100)

Inter -1 [-103] 3%  -220.92 to win 214.49

Rangers [-104] 3%  -220.92 to win 212.42
Flames [-104] 2% -147.28 to win 141.62

Sorry to be a pain in the ass dj, but which Inter?

Inter Milan?

Or is it Brazil Serie A ?

 

Gotta be Inter Milan

Internazional is +1/2

10/24 02:45P EST
Italy Serie A Soccer Game

10/24 04:30P EST
Brazil Serie A Soccer Game

Those are the two I was asking about.  But the Brazil one is +1.5 for Inter.  Gotta be Milan as they're -1

"ouch" of a day

That only means tomorrow will rock

 

I suck at football and know it... I was almost going to just pass and I only picked a soccer game because I've been hot lately with soccer, not because the pick was overly strong. Rookie mistakes... (add in that teaser to the list while we're at it). Hockey was the lone bright spot; new week tomorrow.

Another great night of hockey DJ.  Keep it up

Record: 44-37-0
Bankroll: $7005.15
Wagered: $12914.83
Returned: $14919.98
Net: +$2005.15
ROI: +15.53%
_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _

AC Milan pk [+100] 3% -210.15 to win 210.15

Salami U16.5 [+100] 3% -210.15 to win 210.15
Blue Jackets [+104] 2% -140.10 to win 145.70
Kings [+100] 2% -140.10 to win 140.10

dj

What do you think of taking the draw in this case?  I have been doing some record/data keeping of soccer draws accross all leagues.

With only looking at the amount for draw - last I looked was +223, the O/U of 2 -2.5 and the pk I have 48 previous matches in the range of 221-225.  The result in this case has been 23 draws and 25 that finished as one or the other team winning.

I think the Milan pk is a good play, I was wondering what led you to play this instead of the draw?

Nice man, would love to hear more about this (perhaps without the price range)... Also, did you include all totals of 2.5 and better? Or 2 & 2.5 or better? What about if you used only totals of 2 or under? That 23-25 number would be extremely profitable but I feel as if your filters are skewing it a bit.

At the moment, my draw plays are on games with totals of 2 or under and a pk spread ONLY. I then go through the leftover games that didn't get filtered out and cap those ones individually to find the best draw matchups. Hopefully your numbers can shed some light on these plays...

Anyways, I really liked Milan here in the Monday night game but didn't know if they could get it done on the road so I covered the draw just in case. Don't really have time to lay it all out but it definitely constituted a play. Gonna go watch the game now!

Sweeeeeeeep 

 GREAT DAY DJ

Hey dj you ignorant non-american fucker (just kidding)

Are we destroying the books today?

Looking like you won your soccer bet too.  Great day on the ice.  You're making it look easy.  Keep it up.

Record: 48-37-0
Bankroll: $7711.25
Wagered: $13615.33
Returned: $16326.58
Net: +$2711.25
ROI: +19.91%
_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _

Coyotes [+124] 3% -231.34 to win 286.86
Sabres/Flyers O5.5 [+113] 3% -231.34 to win 261.41

Celtics [+106] 2% -154.23 to win 163.48