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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    anyone have ciscos baseball system

    «First Previous 234 ... 678 Next Last»
    fritz218
    rudie
    username474
    cisco
    andarmac99
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    fritz218
    fritz218
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    Posted: Jan. 28, 2008 - 4:25 PM ET #26

    Quote Originally Posted by cisco:

    I have two systems that have been profitable. Both are a 4-game chase.
     

    Home Favorite Chase System
    Play on a +.470 team that has lost their last 3 or more home games as a favorite of -110 or more, and is again favored at home by -110 or more. I chase for up to 4 games.

     

    In 2005 it went 45-0 in a 4 game chase. (went 44-1 using a 3 game chase)
    In 2006 it went 40-0 using a 4 game chase.

    In 2007 it went 39-0 using a 4 game chase.

    2005
    45-0
    Gm.1.. 28  (66.66%)
    Gm 2… 9 (88.09%)
    Gm 3… 6 (97.72%)

    Gm 4….2 (100%)
    3 gm loss- Texas/TB -11.41 units Hit on gm #4

    2006
    40-0
    Gm 1... 28 (70.0%)
    Gm 2... 6 (85.0%)
    Gm 3... 4 (95.0 %)
    Gm 4... 2 (100%)

     

    2007

    39-0

    Gm 1…26 (66.6%)

    Gm 2…9 (89.7%)

    Gm 3…3 (97.4%)

    Gm 4…1 (100%)

     

    Heck, you could just stop after game 1 or 2 and make money.

     



    cisco when choosing a .470% team are you talking about their overall record? for the season to date? and is that just straight up record. if so how do you decide which teams to play in the begininng of the season everyone starts at 0-0 do you wait a few weeks or use the year before stats.
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    Quote Originally Posted by cisco:

    I have two systems that have been profitable. Both are a 4-game chase.
     

    Home Favorite Chase System
    Play on a +.470 team that has lost their last 3 or more home games as a favorite of -110 or more, and is again favored at home by -110 or more. I chase for up to 4 games.

     

    In 2005 it went 45-0 in a 4 game chase. (went 44-1 using a 3 game chase)
    In 2006 it went 40-0 using a 4 game chase.

    In 2007 it went 39-0 using a 4 game chase.

    2005
    45-0
    Gm.1.. 28  (66.66%)
    Gm 2… 9 (88.09%)
    Gm 3… 6 (97.72%)

    Gm 4….2 (100%)
    3 gm loss- Texas/TB -11.41 units Hit on gm #4

    2006
    40-0
    Gm 1... 28 (70.0%)
    Gm 2... 6 (85.0%)
    Gm 3... 4 (95.0 %)
    Gm 4... 2 (100%)

     

    2007

    39-0

    Gm 1…26 (66.6%)

    Gm 2…9 (89.7%)

    Gm 3…3 (97.4%)

    Gm 4…1 (100%)

     

    Heck, you could just stop after game 1 or 2 and make money.

     



    cisco when choosing a .470% team are you talking about their overall record? for the season to date? and is that just straight up record. if so how do you decide which teams to play in the begininng of the season everyone starts at 0-0 do you wait a few weeks or use the year before stats.
     
    rudie
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2008 - 1:23 AM ET #27

    so this system is strictly about  betting on a team close to .500. using a kelly criterian theory, a teams due to win. in all other sports the favorites usually win outright, but in baseball, dogs always have a chance, thats why some books wont  let you parlay huge dogs. so looking at a team close to .500 and figuring them to win 1 of their next 4 games to make 1 unit. it may have worked out recently, but just like in casinos, they have limits on the table games and when you run into a losing streak and have reached the table limit and lose that final bet your fuked. this is not a bash, just a observation. as always good luck in the future.
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    so this system is strictly about  betting on a team close to .500. using a kelly criterian theory, a teams due to win. in all other sports the favorites usually win outright, but in baseball, dogs always have a chance, thats why some books wont  let you parlay huge dogs. so looking at a team close to .500 and figuring them to win 1 of their next 4 games to make 1 unit. it may have worked out recently, but just like in casinos, they have limits on the table games and when you run into a losing streak and have reached the table limit and lose that final bet your fuked. this is not a bash, just a observation. as always good luck in the future.
     
    username474
    username474
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    Posted: Feb. 19, 2008 - 11:12 AM ET #28

    Quote Originally Posted by rudie:

    so this system is strictly about  betting on a team close to .500. using a kelly criterian theory, a teams due to win. in all other sports the favorites usually win outright, but in baseball, dogs always have a chance, thats why some books wont  let you parlay huge dogs. so looking at a team close to .500 and figuring them to win 1 of their next 4 games to make 1 unit. it may have worked out recently, but just like in casinos, they have limits on the table games and when you run into a losing streak and have reached the table limit and lose that final bet your fuked. this is not a bash, just a observation. as always good luck in the future.

     

    you have to have more then one book for any chase system

     

     

    sisco i have one question about your home favorites system . Is 470% their overall winning % or their home winning %?

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    Quote Originally Posted by rudie:

    so this system is strictly about  betting on a team close to .500. using a kelly criterian theory, a teams due to win. in all other sports the favorites usually win outright, but in baseball, dogs always have a chance, thats why some books wont  let you parlay huge dogs. so looking at a team close to .500 and figuring them to win 1 of their next 4 games to make 1 unit. it may have worked out recently, but just like in casinos, they have limits on the table games and when you run into a losing streak and have reached the table limit and lose that final bet your fuked. this is not a bash, just a observation. as always good luck in the future.

     

    you have to have more then one book for any chase system

     

     

    sisco i have one question about your home favorites system . Is 470% their overall winning % or their home winning %?

     
    cisco
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    Posted: Feb. 20, 2008 - 12:06 AM ET #29

    fritz: For the first month I use payroll. Take the top half in each league as a .470 team.
     
    rudy: " figuring them to win 1 of their next 4 games"
    Not so. They have to be playing at home and favored by -110 or more. If it's -109 it's a no play. If they play game 1 at home and lose and then go on the road you have to wait until they return home to resume the chase.
     
    username: overall winning %
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    fritz: For the first month I use payroll. Take the top half in each league as a .470 team.
     
    rudy: " figuring them to win 1 of their next 4 games"
    Not so. They have to be playing at home and favored by -110 or more. If it's -109 it's a no play. If they play game 1 at home and lose and then go on the road you have to wait until they return home to resume the chase.
     
    username: overall winning %
     
    username474
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    Posted: Feb. 20, 2008 - 8:01 AM ET #30

    thanks cisco
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    thanks cisco
     
    andarmac99
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    Posted: Feb. 20, 2008 - 11:49 PM ET #31

    One more question.

    What if the team is favored at -115 in Game 1 and lose but game 2 they are +120, does the Chase continue? I was just wondering because you said the team had to be a fav of -110 or more.
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    One more question.

    What if the team is favored at -115 in Game 1 and lose but game 2 they are +120, does the Chase continue? I was just wondering because you said the team had to be a fav of -110 or more.
     
    cisco
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    Posted: Feb. 21, 2008 - 1:56 AM ET #32

    skip the +120 game. wait for -110 or better.
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    skip the +120 game. wait for -110 or better.
     
    VilenceAlliance
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    Posted: Feb. 21, 2008 - 4:22 AM ET #33

    Cisco, do you post your picks as you go? I'd like to see what your picks are as I try to learn the system.
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    Cisco, do you post your picks as you go? I'd like to see what your picks are as I try to learn the system.
     
    Coverdatspred
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    Posted: Feb. 29, 2008 - 6:20 PM ET #34

    Cisco and Violence Ive requested an add from both of you as a friend.  This is exactly what Ive been looking for to follow for the upcoming season.  Id love to follow the picks early on with you both as I get my feet underneath me in this system.
     
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    Cisco and Violence Ive requested an add from both of you as a friend.  This is exactly what Ive been looking for to follow for the upcoming season.  Id love to follow the picks early on with you both as I get my feet underneath me in this system.
     
     
    SmallPocket
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    Posted: Mar. 3, 2008 - 5:12 PM ET #35

    This sounds very interesting.  Will anyone be tracking this system for the upcoming season? 
     
    Go Cubs!! 
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    This sounds very interesting.  Will anyone be tracking this system for the upcoming season? 
     
    Go Cubs!! 
     
    53percent
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    Posted: Mar. 4, 2008 - 3:08 PM ET #36

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    PaperChaser23
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    Posted: Mar. 6, 2008 - 3:39 AM ET #37

    like the system alot Thanks cisco
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    like the system alot Thanks cisco
     
    muckfichigan8
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    Posted: Mar. 8, 2008 - 4:09 PM ET #38

    Interesting read. I wish you well, Cisco.
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    Interesting read. I wish you well, Cisco.
     
    cpa21
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    Posted: Mar. 10, 2008 - 5:07 PM ET #39

    One more question.  Cleveland wins by 5, skip two, betting against Cleveland they win by 5 again in game 2 of the chase. You have now lost two of the four games.  Do you wait two more games and only resume with two more in the chase?
     
    Thanks!
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    One more question.  Cleveland wins by 5, skip two, betting against Cleveland they win by 5 again in game 2 of the chase. You have now lost two of the four games.  Do you wait two more games and only resume with two more in the chase?
     
    Thanks!
     
    cisco
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    Posted: Mar. 10, 2008 - 5:14 PM ET #40

    Skip 2 games and play game 3 against Cleveland.
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    Skip 2 games and play game 3 against Cleveland.
     
    HeaVin-Cent
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    Posted: Mar. 10, 2008 - 9:22 PM ET #41

    Cisco are you going to be posting your plays on this site or are you going to another one. I think I understand the system pretty well but Id like to double check some plays. Thanks for the time...
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    Cisco are you going to be posting your plays on this site or are you going to another one. I think I understand the system pretty well but Id like to double check some plays. Thanks for the time...
     
    cpa21
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    Posted: Mar. 11, 2008 - 12:24 PM ET #42

    Thanks Cisco.  I understand to play against after waiting 2 more games but do I play against only two more times?
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    Thanks Cisco.  I understand to play against after waiting 2 more games but do I play against only two more times?
     
    cisco
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    Posted: Mar. 11, 2008 - 11:15 PM ET #43

    Read the rules.
     
    The chase ends with a win or four losses.
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    Read the rules.
     
    The chase ends with a win or four losses.
     
    cisco
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    Posted: Mar. 11, 2008 - 11:19 PM ET #44

    No, I won't be posting in here.
     
     
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    No, I won't be posting in here.
     
     
     
    nccashman
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    Posted: Mar. 11, 2008 - 11:36 PM ET #45

    THANKS CISCO
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    THANKS CISCO
     
    kevk87
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    Posted: Mar. 30, 2008 - 5:16 AM ET #46

    Cisco, what do you mean by shut down with the rooster? Do you mean don't bet on that team all season if they have more than 40 players? (because on the spreadsheet it states after shutdown the system went 51-7) I  just wanted to make sure I'm doing this right.
    Btw Great System!
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    Cisco, what do you mean by shut down with the rooster? Do you mean don't bet on that team all season if they have more than 40 players? (because on the spreadsheet it states after shutdown the system went 51-7) I  just wanted to make sure I'm doing this right.
    Btw Great System!
     
    duby
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    Posted: Mar. 30, 2008 - 3:07 PM ET #47

    Just a quick question regarding one of the rule:

    If the team wins by 5 runs or more during the next 4 games, skip another 2 games.

    If I undertand correctly:

    Blue Jays win by 6 against TB

    we skip the two next games for Jays

    Then we start fading Jays game #1---result Jays win by 2
    So we chase Jays to lose again #2--result Jays win by 7

    According to the rule above, we should wait another 2 games before continuing game #3 of chase?

    is this correct?

    Thanks
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    Just a quick question regarding one of the rule:

    If the team wins by 5 runs or more during the next 4 games, skip another 2 games.

    If I undertand correctly:

    Blue Jays win by 6 against TB

    we skip the two next games for Jays

    Then we start fading Jays game #1---result Jays win by 2
    So we chase Jays to lose again #2--result Jays win by 7

    According to the rule above, we should wait another 2 games before continuing game #3 of chase?

    is this correct?

    Thanks
     
    cisco
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    Posted: Mar. 30, 2008 - 4:18 PM ET #48

    kevk87- The roster expands on Sept. and I shut down. Last year the system lost 85.98 units after I shut down.
     
    duby- correct.
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    kevk87- The roster expands on Sept. and I shut down. Last year the system lost 85.98 units after I shut down.
     
    duby- correct.
     
    duby
    duby
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    Posted: Mar. 30, 2008 - 4:44 PM ET #49

    Thanks Cisco,
     
    Let the games begin!!!!!!!!!
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    Thanks Cisco,
     
    Let the games begin!!!!!!!!!
     
     
    kevk87
    kevk87
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    Posted: Mar. 30, 2008 - 11:10 PM ET #50

    While you were using the 5 run chase system, did you notice any trends for teams that may lose 4 in a row during the chase? Because I looked through previous data for 07 and 06 season, and noticed that the NL and AL western division  had a good chance of losing 4 in a row.
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    While you were using the 5 run chase system, did you notice any trends for teams that may lose 4 in a row during the chase? Because I looked through previous data for 07 and 06 season, and noticed that the NL and AL western division  had a good chance of losing 4 in a row.
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