cisco can you provide a spreadsheet for this year like a template of how to keep stats and information like you did other years..
by the way i love the system i just have to get the hang of it because its all new.. in a month it will be easy to follow right now i feel like i don't have a clue but i sorta do..haha
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cisco can you provide a spreadsheet for this year like a template of how to keep stats and information like you did other years..
by the way i love the system i just have to get the hang of it because its all new.. in a month it will be easy to follow right now i feel like i don't have a clue but i sorta do..haha
The 2 above games are also teams (Cards and Atlanta) who won by 5+ runs out on 4/2 and thus we are technically supposed to be skipping their next 2 games.....what then?
Do we just latch on to one chase and ignore the Cards and Atlanta beating teams by 5? We cant treat them as exclusive else we are not actually following the sytem?
Do you follow?
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Quote Originally Posted by Coverdatspred:
Cards over Nats (-142)
Braves over Mets (-118)
Nice Update on these. Here is one issue I see.
The 2 above games are also teams (Cards and Atlanta) who won by 5+ runs out on 4/2 and thus we are technically supposed to be skipping their next 2 games.....what then?
Do we just latch on to one chase and ignore the Cards and Atlanta beating teams by 5? We cant treat them as exclusive else we are not actually following the sytem?
I think both are a play regardless if im reading Ciscos post correctly. The Mets win on 4/2 was one of the games we are probably skipping (ignoring).
The Cards win on 4/2 means another count begins? If this is correct we can only bet on the Cards tonight and then begin to fade them in their next game.
This thing can get complicated I guess
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I think both are a play regardless if im reading Ciscos post correctly. The Mets win on 4/2 was one of the games we are probably skipping (ignoring).
The Cards win on 4/2 means another count begins? If this is correct we can only bet on the Cards tonight and then begin to fade them in their next game.
Cisco, thanks for the system. quick question: you play a team that has lost 3+ home games as a -110 favorite and is favored again at home by -110. what if the team has won a home game between those 3+ games as a dog or less than -110? does the team have to lose 3+ games regardless or ONLY as a -110 favorite? thanks
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Cisco, thanks for the system. quick question: you play a team that has lost 3+ home games as a -110 favorite and is favored again at home by -110. what if the team has won a home game between those 3+ games as a dog or less than -110? does the team have to lose 3+ games regardless or ONLY as a -110 favorite? thanks
also, what if a .470+ team loses it's last home game as a -110 fav and then goes on the road for a week and then comes home and loses 2 more as a -110 fav. play?
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also, what if a .470+ team loses it's last home game as a -110 fav and then goes on the road for a week and then comes home and loses 2 more as a -110 fav. play?
Agreed, however since it would be irrelevant to the system because in the initial situation we are only concerned with what is happening with the initial team who won by 5...in this case we are only concerned with NATS, DODGERS, METS, ANGELS.
If we are going to follow the "plan" we should probably track both as mutually exclusive. Meaning we ignore the fact that CARDS and BRAVES both won, and bet FOR them against the teams mentioned above, keeping in mind to FADE them when there subsequent 2 game wait period is over.
Thus 4/4 is still:
Cards over Nats Padres over Dodgers Braves over Mets Rangers over Angels
Now if we count the 4/2 blowout wins by Cards and Braves we can begin betting AGAINST THEM on 4/6.
Sound about right?
Cisco?
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Quote Originally Posted by Coverdatspred:
This thing can get complicated I guess
Agreed, however since it would be irrelevant to the system because in the initial situation we are only concerned with what is happening with the initial team who won by 5...in this case we are only concerned with NATS, DODGERS, METS, ANGELS.
If we are going to follow the "plan" we should probably track both as mutually exclusive. Meaning we ignore the fact that CARDS and BRAVES both won, and bet FOR them against the teams mentioned above, keeping in mind to FADE them when there subsequent 2 game wait period is over.
Thus 4/4 is still:
Cards over Nats Padres over Dodgers Braves over Mets Rangers over Angels
Now if we count the 4/2 blowout wins by Cards and Braves we can begin betting AGAINST THEM on 4/6.
also, what if a .470+ team loses it's last home game as a -110 fav and then goes on the road for a week and then comes home and loses 2 more as a -110 fav. play?
IMO and based on what has been written, the ONLY FACTORS seem to be:
1. Consectutive home losses when favored by -110 or more.
OH YEAH AND MAKE SURE it is PRE ALL STAR BREAK ;)
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Quote Originally Posted by Molsen:
also, what if a .470+ team loses it's last home game as a -110 fav and then goes on the road for a week and then comes home and loses 2 more as a -110 fav. play?
IMO and based on what has been written, the ONLY FACTORS seem to be:
1. Consectutive home losses when favored by -110 or more.
with the .470 home team system, DET seemed like a play today but they aren't a .470 team yet. they haven't won a game. i know plenty of people were saying "they're due" etc but this system will only work if you stick to the rules. thanks cisco. i've set up spreadsheets already and will follow this system all year. nice work dude
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with the .470 home team system, DET seemed like a play today but they aren't a .470 team yet. they haven't won a game. i know plenty of people were saying "they're due" etc but this system will only work if you stick to the rules. thanks cisco. i've set up spreadsheets already and will follow this system all year. nice work dude
IMO and based on what has been written, the ONLY FACTORS seem to be:
1. Consectutive home losses when favored by -110 or more.
OH YEAH AND MAKE SURE it is PRE ALL STAR BREAK ;)
i don't think that's right. how many times does a .470+ team lose 3 consecutive home games as a -110 fav, then they stay home, and are again favored by -110? i think it's consecutive games lost at home -110 as a favorite but a road trip could be factored in there.
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Quote Originally Posted by Realmwalker:
IMO and based on what has been written, the ONLY FACTORS seem to be:
1. Consectutive home losses when favored by -110 or more.
OH YEAH AND MAKE SURE it is PRE ALL STAR BREAK ;)
i don't think that's right. how many times does a .470+ team lose 3 consecutive home games as a -110 fav, then they stay home, and are again favored by -110? i think it's consecutive games lost at home -110 as a favorite but a road trip could be factored in there.
with the .470 home team system, DET seemed like a play today but they aren't a .470 team yet. they haven't won a game. i know plenty of people were saying "they're due" etc but this system will only work if you stick to the rules.
Yes Detroit would have been a play today in the 1st day of a 4 game chase where they are favored by -110 or more.
Also in terms of winning percentage: In the first month of the season, Cisco mentioned(somewher up there) he used Team Payroll to guage quality of the team, top half and bottom half because this early its too have a winning % that matters.
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Quote Originally Posted by Molsen:
with the .470 home team system, DET seemed like a play today but they aren't a .470 team yet. they haven't won a game. i know plenty of people were saying "they're due" etc but this system will only work if you stick to the rules.
Yes Detroit would have been a play today in the 1st day of a 4 game chase where they are favored by -110 or more.
Also in terms of winning percentage: In the first month of the season, Cisco mentioned(somewher up there) he used Team Payroll to guage quality of the team, top half and bottom half because this early its too have a winning % that matters.
Yes Detroit would have been a play today in the 1st day of a 4 game chase where they are favored by -110 or more.
Also in terms of winning percentage: In the first month of the season, Cisco mentioned(somewher up there) he used Team Payroll to guage quality of the team, top half and bottom half because this early its too have a winning % that matters.
cool. thank you. i really want to know the parameters of the 3 game HOME losing streak because it looks like the best system. is it consecutive without a road trip and/or (what if the team has a home game in there when they're +100 and they win), etc. right now i read it as: 3 consecutive home losses as a -110+ fav and they stay at home and are once again a -110+ favorite
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Quote Originally Posted by Realmwalker:
Yes Detroit would have been a play today in the 1st day of a 4 game chase where they are favored by -110 or more.
Also in terms of winning percentage: In the first month of the season, Cisco mentioned(somewher up there) he used Team Payroll to guage quality of the team, top half and bottom half because this early its too have a winning % that matters.
cool. thank you. i really want to know the parameters of the 3 game HOME losing streak because it looks like the best system. is it consecutive without a road trip and/or (what if the team has a home game in there when they're +100 and they win), etc. right now i read it as: 3 consecutive home losses as a -110+ fav and they stay at home and are once again a -110+ favorite
Friday 4/4 Plays - BOLD is ML Play (to win 1 unit)
Cards v. Nats (day 1 of chase)
Padres v. Dodgers (day 1 of chase)
Rangers v. Angels (day 1 of chase)
Saturday, April 5th (to win 1 unit)
A's v. Cleveland
SF v. Milly (however as it stands now Milly will win by 5 pushing this game out 2 more games)
Then Using the HOME FIELD CHASE
Detroit v. ChiSox (day 2 of home fade assuming favored at -110 or more)
Don't forget the Mets on Sat. and then ATL on Sun. if no one in the series wins by more than 5. both won by 5+ on 4/2 but Atl played on 4/3. tricky system but i'm sure it pays
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Quote Originally Posted by Realmwalker:
Just to update where we are:
Friday 4/4 Plays - BOLD is ML Play (to win 1 unit)
Cards v. Nats (day 1 of chase)
Padres v. Dodgers (day 1 of chase)
Rangers v. Angels (day 1 of chase)
Saturday, April 5th (to win 1 unit)
A's v. Cleveland
SF v. Milly (however as it stands now Milly will win by 5 pushing this game out 2 more games)
Then Using the HOME FIELD CHASE
Detroit v. ChiSox (day 2 of home fade assuming favored at -110 or more)
Don't forget the Mets on Sat. and then ATL on Sun. if no one in the series wins by more than 5. both won by 5+ on 4/2 but Atl played on 4/3. tricky system but i'm sure it pays
cool. thank you. i really want to know the parameters of the 3 game HOME losing streak because it looks like the best system.
It does look like a good system because it uses a good team in a favored matchup as the basis for it, and works that eventually that team is due to HIT by the law of averages.
Quote Originally Posted by Molsen:
is it consecutive without a road trip and/or (what if the team has a home game in there when they're +100 and they win), etc. right now i read it as: 3 consecutive home losses as a -110+ fav and they stay at home and are once again a -110+ favorite
From what was written above, if a team loses 3 at home, while being a -110 fav or better, then hits a 16 game road trip, those games are irrelevant to the chase, when they return and are at home and then are dogs, that game too would not count, thus still putting you on game 3 of your chase when teh team is HOME and FAVORED by -110 or better. That makes the most sense to me. So if they are dogs and win in the middle of a chase, you discount that win as any part of your chase. The idea of this chase factors into a few variables:
1. A -110 fav is expected to win about 52% of the time, so playing this or better percentages 4 consecutive times REALLY should pay off.
2. Home teams win historically at a .540 clip.
3. You are playing a 500 or better team, so you are not playing on a crap team.
Factor those 3 things into the chase and its results should pay off. The key is staying on target with your money management and using progressive betting to eventually net a 1 unit win over the course of the chase.
Thoughts?
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Quote Originally Posted by Molsen:
cool. thank you. i really want to know the parameters of the 3 game HOME losing streak because it looks like the best system.
It does look like a good system because it uses a good team in a favored matchup as the basis for it, and works that eventually that team is due to HIT by the law of averages.
Quote Originally Posted by Molsen:
is it consecutive without a road trip and/or (what if the team has a home game in there when they're +100 and they win), etc. right now i read it as: 3 consecutive home losses as a -110+ fav and they stay at home and are once again a -110+ favorite
From what was written above, if a team loses 3 at home, while being a -110 fav or better, then hits a 16 game road trip, those games are irrelevant to the chase, when they return and are at home and then are dogs, that game too would not count, thus still putting you on game 3 of your chase when teh team is HOME and FAVORED by -110 or better. That makes the most sense to me. So if they are dogs and win in the middle of a chase, you discount that win as any part of your chase. The idea of this chase factors into a few variables:
1. A -110 fav is expected to win about 52% of the time, so playing this or better percentages 4 consecutive times REALLY should pay off.
2. Home teams win historically at a .540 clip.
3. You are playing a 500 or better team, so you are not playing on a crap team.
Factor those 3 things into the chase and its results should pay off. The key is staying on target with your money management and using progressive betting to eventually net a 1 unit win over the course of the chase.
NYM won again by 5+ on 4/2 so we'd skip 2 more games. they wouldn't be a play until 4/6
Im not sure this matters to the system....the only thing mentioned by Cisco was that once a team wins by 5 you skip the next two and start the chase......."Wait for a team to win a game by 5 runs or more. Skip that teams next 2 games. Bet against that team for up to the next 4 games. If the team wins by 5 runs or more during the next 4 games, skip another 2 games. The chase ends with a win or four losses. Progressive bet to win one unit."
Follow the order of what he says...skip the next 2 games bet against for next 4.....if the team wins by 5 or more during those 4 skip another 2. IMO fading the Mets tonight is the system play
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Quote Originally Posted by Molsen:
NYM won again by 5+ on 4/2 so we'd skip 2 more games. they wouldn't be a play until 4/6
Im not sure this matters to the system....the only thing mentioned by Cisco was that once a team wins by 5 you skip the next two and start the chase......."Wait for a team to win a game by 5 runs or more. Skip that teams next 2 games. Bet against that team for up to the next 4 games. If the team wins by 5 runs or more during the next 4 games, skip another 2 games. The chase ends with a win or four losses. Progressive bet to win one unit."
Follow the order of what he says...skip the next 2 games bet against for next 4.....if the team wins by 5 or more during those 4 skip another 2. IMO fading the Mets tonight is the system play
It does look like a good system because it uses a good team in a favored matchup as the basis for it, and works that eventually that team is due to HIT by the law of averages.
Quote Originally Posted by Molsen:
is it consecutive without a road trip and/or (what if the team has a home game in there when they're +100 and they win), etc. right now i read it as: 3 consecutive home losses as a -110+ fav and they stay at home and are once again a -110+ favorite
From what was written above, if a team loses 3 at home, while being a -110 fav or better, then hits a 16 game road trip, those games are irrelevant to the chase, when they return and are at home and then are dogs, that game too would not count, thus still putting you on game 3 of your chase when teh team is HOME and FAVORED by -110 or better. That makes the most sense to me. So if they are dogs and win in the middle of a chase, you discount that win as any part of your chase. The idea of this chase factors into a few variables:
1. A -110 fav is expected to win about 52% of the time, so playing this or better percentages 4 consecutive times REALLY should pay off.
2. Home teams win historically at a .540 clip.
3. You are playing a 500 or better team, so you are not playing on a crap team.
Factor those 3 things into the chase and its results should pay off. The key is staying on target with your money management and using progressive betting to eventually net a 1 unit win over the course of the chase.
Thoughts?
This is a VERY good system but it can be nerve racking as hell. Basically if this thing ever gets to a game 4 loss you can lose your bankroll very easily. Also the key to success in this system is not getting bored when there are no plays and modifying things to your liking
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Quote Originally Posted by Realmwalker:
It does look like a good system because it uses a good team in a favored matchup as the basis for it, and works that eventually that team is due to HIT by the law of averages.
Quote Originally Posted by Molsen:
is it consecutive without a road trip and/or (what if the team has a home game in there when they're +100 and they win), etc. right now i read it as: 3 consecutive home losses as a -110+ fav and they stay at home and are once again a -110+ favorite
From what was written above, if a team loses 3 at home, while being a -110 fav or better, then hits a 16 game road trip, those games are irrelevant to the chase, when they return and are at home and then are dogs, that game too would not count, thus still putting you on game 3 of your chase when teh team is HOME and FAVORED by -110 or better. That makes the most sense to me. So if they are dogs and win in the middle of a chase, you discount that win as any part of your chase. The idea of this chase factors into a few variables:
1. A -110 fav is expected to win about 52% of the time, so playing this or better percentages 4 consecutive times REALLY should pay off.
2. Home teams win historically at a .540 clip.
3. You are playing a 500 or better team, so you are not playing on a crap team.
Factor those 3 things into the chase and its results should pay off. The key is staying on target with your money management and using progressive betting to eventually net a 1 unit win over the course of the chase.
Thoughts?
This is a VERY good system but it can be nerve racking as hell. Basically if this thing ever gets to a game 4 loss you can lose your bankroll very easily. Also the key to success in this system is not getting bored when there are no plays and modifying things to your liking
Im not sure this matters to the system....the only thing mentioned by Cisco was that once a team wins by 5 you skip the next two and start the chase......."Wait for a team to win a game by 5 runs or more. Skip that teams next 2 games. Bet against that team for up to the next 4 games. If the team wins by 5 runs or more during the next 4 games, skip another 2 games. The chase ends with a win or four losses. Progressive bet to win one unit."
Follow the order of what he says...skip the next 2 games bet against for next 4.....if the team wins by 5 or more during those 4 skip another 2. IMO fading the Mets tonight is the system play
thanks for the post. i guess it could be interpreted 2 different ways. i see what you're saying. so, the Mets would be a fade tonight and Sun? interesting. coverdat, are you talking from experience? have you done this system before?
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Quote Originally Posted by Coverdatspred:
Im not sure this matters to the system....the only thing mentioned by Cisco was that once a team wins by 5 you skip the next two and start the chase......."Wait for a team to win a game by 5 runs or more. Skip that teams next 2 games. Bet against that team for up to the next 4 games. If the team wins by 5 runs or more during the next 4 games, skip another 2 games. The chase ends with a win or four losses. Progressive bet to win one unit."
Follow the order of what he says...skip the next 2 games bet against for next 4.....if the team wins by 5 or more during those 4 skip another 2. IMO fading the Mets tonight is the system play
thanks for the post. i guess it could be interpreted 2 different ways. i see what you're saying. so, the Mets would be a fade tonight and Sun? interesting. coverdat, are you talking from experience? have you done this system before?
Don't forget the Mets on Sat. and then ATL on Sun. if no one in the series wins by more than 5. both won by 5+ on 4/2 but Atl played on 4/3. tricky system but i'm sure it pays
Well Mets won by a score of 13-0 on 4/2, they did not play on 4/3 so we would skip their next 2 games (those being today 4/4 and tomorrow 4/5). Assuming they dont win by 5+ again, the FADE on the Mets begins 4/6 against Atlanta.
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Quote Originally Posted by Molsen:
Don't forget the Mets on Sat. and then ATL on Sun. if no one in the series wins by more than 5. both won by 5+ on 4/2 but Atl played on 4/3. tricky system but i'm sure it pays
Well Mets won by a score of 13-0 on 4/2, they did not play on 4/3 so we would skip their next 2 games (those being today 4/4 and tomorrow 4/5). Assuming they dont win by 5+ again, the FADE on the Mets begins 4/6 against Atlanta.
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