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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Anti-JM NBA Thread

    «First Previous 151617 ... 232425 Next Last»
    skidroid
    smitler
    sahlsa
    avenue
    stickbit
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    «First Previous 151617 ... 232425 Next Last»
     
    skidroid
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    Posted: Feb. 7, 2010 - 10:10 AM ET #351

    AJM: A-2/3-Raptors -10.5 -110                        W by 9
             B-2/5-Celtics -12 -110                            W by 9
            
    C-2/6-Pistons -7  -110                            W by 7  Push
              D-2/9-Cavs

    AJM: A-2/3-Hornets +1.5      -110 BM                   L by 4
             B-2/6-Warriors +4        -110                         L by 9
             C-2/9-Blazers

    JM3: A-2/3-Spurs -4/-2       -150 BMaker   W by 2 Push or Win  9-0
            B-2/4-Spurs -2/ml      -135 BMaker    L by 3
            C-2/6-Spurs -3.5/ml    -165                W by 17 (if pushed A game)




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    AJM: A-2/3-Raptors -10.5 -110                        W by 9
             B-2/5-Celtics -12 -110                            W by 9
            
    C-2/6-Pistons -7  -110                            W by 7  Push
              D-2/9-Cavs

    AJM: A-2/3-Hornets +1.5      -110 BM                   L by 4
             B-2/6-Warriors +4        -110                         L by 9
             C-2/9-Blazers

    JM3: A-2/3-Spurs -4/-2       -150 BMaker   W by 2 Push or Win  9-0
            B-2/4-Spurs -2/ml      -135 BMaker    L by 3
            C-2/6-Spurs -3.5/ml    -165                W by 17 (if pushed A game)




     
    skidroid
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    Posted: Feb. 7, 2010 - 10:16 AM ET #352

    Version 1 play

    JM1-2/7-A-Kings+8/+11-170-Betus
    AJM-2/7-A-Raptors-7.5-110-Betus

    Bought 3 for JM cause lines were the same at Betus and BookMaker early.
    Betus just dropped Raptors to -7.5. Still -8 or -8.5 elsewhere.

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    Version 1 play

    JM1-2/7-A-Kings+8/+11-170-Betus
    AJM-2/7-A-Raptors-7.5-110-Betus

    Bought 3 for JM cause lines were the same at Betus and BookMaker early.
    Betus just dropped Raptors to -7.5. Still -8 or -8.5 elsewhere.

     
    smitler
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    Posted: Feb. 7, 2010 - 2:46 PM ET #353

    V1 and V2 records before todays game.
    JM1/JM2 = 52-2
    AJM        = 52-2
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    V1 and V2 records before todays game.
    JM1/JM2 = 52-2
    AJM        = 52-2
     
    smitler
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    Posted: Feb. 7, 2010 - 2:49 PM ET #354

    JM1-2/7-A-Kings+8/+11-170-Betus-Lost by 11 Push
    JM1-2/9-B-Kings at Knicks

    AJM-2/7-A-Raptors-7.5-110-Betus-Won by 11 Win-53-2
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    JM1-2/7-A-Kings+8/+11-170-Betus-Lost by 11 Push
    JM1-2/9-B-Kings at Knicks

    AJM-2/7-A-Raptors-7.5-110-Betus-Won by 11 Win-53-2
     
    sahlsa
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    Posted: Feb. 7, 2010 - 5:40 PM ET #355

    Quote Originally Posted by smitler:

    JM3 = JM's Version 3 plays.
    None of these strategies are working very well against JM's version 3 plays.  The books lines are not even different.

    But has he changed his strategy to only buying 2 points ? 
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    Quote Originally Posted by smitler:

    JM3 = JM's Version 3 plays.
    None of these strategies are working very well against JM's version 3 plays.  The books lines are not even different.

    But has he changed his strategy to only buying 2 points ? 
     
    smitler
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    Posted: Feb. 7, 2010 - 5:51 PM ET #356

    No. The John Morrison systems are always to buy 3 points.
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    No. The John Morrison systems are always to buy 3 points.
     
    smitler
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    Posted: Feb. 8, 2010 - 7:12 PM ET #357

    JM3=Version 3 play

    JM3: A_2/8_Mavs_-4/ml_-175_BookMaker
    AJM:_A_2/8_Warriors_+4.5_-110 BookMaker

    Although I like the 4.5 point spread, I'm not playing AJM for Version 3 anymore.  Having said that, probably 2 point Mavs win.
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    JM3=Version 3 play

    JM3: A_2/8_Mavs_-4/ml_-175_BookMaker
    AJM:_A_2/8_Warriors_+4.5_-110 BookMaker

    Although I like the 4.5 point spread, I'm not playing AJM for Version 3 anymore.  Having said that, probably 2 point Mavs win.
     
    avenue
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    Posted: Feb. 8, 2010 - 7:21 PM ET #358

    You dont like the results of the ajm v3?
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    You dont like the results of the ajm v3?
     
    avenue
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    Posted: Feb. 8, 2010 - 7:24 PM ET #359

    I see ml on dallas @210 at bookmaker....when did you get 175?
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    I see ml on dallas @210 at bookmaker....when did you get 175?
     
    smitler
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    Posted: Feb. 8, 2010 - 7:31 PM ET #360

    No the AJM V3 results are not as good.  I will hold off playing, but will track results to see if the tide changes.  AJM also started slowly for Version 1 and 2 with two early series losses and a lot of 1st game losses.  That has since changed, but I expect it to swing the other way again.

    I got Dallas -4 early this morning.  Line went up about mid-day.
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    No the AJM V3 results are not as good.  I will hold off playing, but will track results to see if the tide changes.  AJM also started slowly for Version 1 and 2 with two early series losses and a lot of 1st game losses.  That has since changed, but I expect it to swing the other way again.

    I got Dallas -4 early this morning.  Line went up about mid-day.
     
    stickbit
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    Posted: Feb. 9, 2010 - 8:59 AM ET #361

    Smitler thanks for all the hard work. Have you back tested playing ANTI JM on b & c games after a JM 'a' win for versions 1 & 2 only? Curious if anyone has that data for previous seasons?
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    Smitler thanks for all the hard work. Have you back tested playing ANTI JM on b & c games after a JM 'a' win for versions 1 & 2 only? Curious if anyone has that data for previous seasons?
     
    smitler
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    Posted: Feb. 10, 2010 - 7:03 PM ET #362

    JM1-2/7-A-Kings+8/+11-170-Betus-Lost by 11 Push
    JM1-2/9-B-Kings +5.5/8.5-170-Betus-Wby4-53-2
    AJM-2/7-A-Raptors-7.5-110-Betus-Wonby11-53-2

    JM1_2/10_A_Celtics_-5.5/-2.5-170-Betus
    AJM_2/10_A_Hornets_+6_-110_Betus

    I am not playing or posting AJM for version 3 anymore.  I think there has been 2 losses already.


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    JM1-2/7-A-Kings+8/+11-170-Betus-Lost by 11 Push
    JM1-2/9-B-Kings +5.5/8.5-170-Betus-Wby4-53-2
    AJM-2/7-A-Raptors-7.5-110-Betus-Wonby11-53-2

    JM1_2/10_A_Celtics_-5.5/-2.5-170-Betus
    AJM_2/10_A_Hornets_+6_-110_Betus

    I am not playing or posting AJM for version 3 anymore.  I think there has been 2 losses already.


     
    avenue
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    Posted: Feb. 10, 2010 - 7:10 PM ET #363

    Isnt miami a jm3 play tonight?
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    Isnt miami a jm3 play tonight?
     
    smitler
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    Posted: Feb. 11, 2010 - 10:27 AM ET #364

    JM1_2/10_A_Celtics_-5.5/-2.5-170-Betus-Lostby8
            2/16_B_Celtics@Kings
    AJM_2/10_A_Hornets_+6_-110_Betus-Wonby8             54-2


    Miami was a V3 play last nite and a sweet win. I'm not gonna post the V3 plays since AJM doesn't work on it. You will have to look at the posted schedule for those plays.
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    JM1_2/10_A_Celtics_-5.5/-2.5-170-Betus-Lostby8
            2/16_B_Celtics@Kings
    AJM_2/10_A_Hornets_+6_-110_Betus-Wonby8             54-2


    Miami was a V3 play last nite and a sweet win. I'm not gonna post the V3 plays since AJM doesn't work on it. You will have to look at the posted schedule for those plays.
     
    smitler
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    Posted: Feb. 11, 2010 - 10:30 AM ET #365

    JM NBA V3.0

    Jan 27 Miami Heat                             1-0
    Jan 27 Denver Nuggets                       2-0
    Jan 31 Golden State Warriors             3-0
    Jan 31 Phoenix Suns                         4-0
    Feb 1 Milwaukee Bucks                      5-0
    Feb 3 New Jersey Nets                       6-0
    Feb 3 Miami Heat                               7-0
    Feb 3 Oklahoma City Thunder              8-0
    Feb 3 San Antonio Spurs                     9-0
    Feb 8 Dallas Mavericks                       10-0
    Feb 10 Miami Heat                              11-0
    Feb 16 Utah Jazz
    Feb 17 Sacramento Kings
    Feb 25 Milwaukee Bucks
    Mar 2 Sacramento Kings
    Mar 3 Oklahoma City Thunder
    Mar 10 Denver Nuggets
    Mar 12 Los Angeles Lakers
    Mar 14 Minnesota Timberwolves
    Mar 14 New Orleans Hornets
    Mar 18 Orlando Magic
    Mar 19 Charlotte Bobcats
    Mar 22 Miami Heat
    Mar 24 Los Angeles Lakers
    Apr 1 Portland Trailblazers
    Apr 4 San Antonio Spurs
    Apr 7 Utah Jazz
    Apr 9 Dallas Mavericks
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    JM NBA V3.0

    Jan 27 Miami Heat                             1-0
    Jan 27 Denver Nuggets                       2-0
    Jan 31 Golden State Warriors             3-0
    Jan 31 Phoenix Suns                         4-0
    Feb 1 Milwaukee Bucks                      5-0
    Feb 3 New Jersey Nets                       6-0
    Feb 3 Miami Heat                               7-0
    Feb 3 Oklahoma City Thunder              8-0
    Feb 3 San Antonio Spurs                     9-0
    Feb 8 Dallas Mavericks                       10-0
    Feb 10 Miami Heat                              11-0
    Feb 16 Utah Jazz
    Feb 17 Sacramento Kings
    Feb 25 Milwaukee Bucks
    Mar 2 Sacramento Kings
    Mar 3 Oklahoma City Thunder
    Mar 10 Denver Nuggets
    Mar 12 Los Angeles Lakers
    Mar 14 Minnesota Timberwolves
    Mar 14 New Orleans Hornets
    Mar 18 Orlando Magic
    Mar 19 Charlotte Bobcats
    Mar 22 Miami Heat
    Mar 24 Los Angeles Lakers
    Apr 1 Portland Trailblazers
    Apr 4 San Antonio Spurs
    Apr 7 Utah Jazz
    Apr 9 Dallas Mavericks
     
    smitler
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    Posted: Feb. 16, 2010 - 6:31 PM ET #366

    JM1_2/10_A_Celtics_-5.5/-2.5_-170_Betus_Lostby8
            2/16_B_Celtics_-5.5/ML_-255 BookMaker
    Remember JM rules say to take ML.

    AJM_2/10_A_Hornets_+6_-110_Betus-Wonby8             54-2

    Also V3 play tonight Jazz -2.5/ML
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    JM1_2/10_A_Celtics_-5.5/-2.5_-170_Betus_Lostby8
            2/16_B_Celtics_-5.5/ML_-255 BookMaker
    Remember JM rules say to take ML.

    AJM_2/10_A_Hornets_+6_-110_Betus-Wonby8             54-2

    Also V3 play tonight Jazz -2.5/ML
     
    avenue
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    Posted: Feb. 16, 2010 - 8:46 PM ET #367

    Why moneyline?
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    Why moneyline?
     
    smitler
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    Posted: Feb. 16, 2010 - 10:11 PM ET #368

    That was the new filter/rule Morrison came up with after Houston failed to cover ats but did win the game.
    Then he said he wasn't going to count that series as a loss since he applied the filter after the fact.

    This was part of his email sent 12/30/09

    First, I want to take a moment to clarify the new NBA rule with
    you. As you know, I've updated the NBA system to reflect the rare
    phenomenon where the team you're betting on is a favorite of more
    than 3 points. In such situations, make your wager on the Money Line.

    ============================================
    BUT, let me make this crystal clear: You can still always bet on
    the spread and buy 3 points if you're not comfortable in putting
    down a larger risk on the Money Line - There is NOTHING wrong with
    that. There's still a tremendous amount of value regardless whether
    if you wager on the spread and buy 3 points, or bet straight on the
    money line when you team is a favorite of -3 or greater. Betting on
    the spread and buy 3 points will surely result in a few missed covers,
    but the overall return on your investment over long term is comparable
    to that of betting straight on the Money Line in such situations.


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    That was the new filter/rule Morrison came up with after Houston failed to cover ats but did win the game.
    Then he said he wasn't going to count that series as a loss since he applied the filter after the fact.

    This was part of his email sent 12/30/09

    First, I want to take a moment to clarify the new NBA rule with
    you. As you know, I've updated the NBA system to reflect the rare
    phenomenon where the team you're betting on is a favorite of more
    than 3 points. In such situations, make your wager on the Money Line.

    ============================================
    BUT, let me make this crystal clear: You can still always bet on
    the spread and buy 3 points if you're not comfortable in putting
    down a larger risk on the Money Line - There is NOTHING wrong with
    that. There's still a tremendous amount of value regardless whether
    if you wager on the spread and buy 3 points, or bet straight on the
    money line when you team is a favorite of -3 or greater. Betting on
    the spread and buy 3 points will surely result in a few missed covers,
    but the overall return on your investment over long term is comparable
    to that of betting straight on the Money Line in such situations.


     
    smitler
    smitler
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    Posts: 2387
    Posted: Feb. 17, 2010 - 6:24 PM ET #369

    JM1_2/10_A_Celtics_-5.5/-2.5_-170_Betus_Lostby8
            2/16_B_Celtics_-5.5/ML_-255 BookMaker_Wby3  54-2
    Remember JM rules say to take ML if favored by 3 or more.
    AJM_2/10_A_Hornets_+6_-110_Betus-Wonby8             54-2

    JM1_2/17_A_Hawks_-6.5/ML_-260_Betus
    AJM_2/17_A_Clips_+7_-110_Betus

    JM3_2/17_A_Kings_+4.5/+7.5
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    JM1_2/10_A_Celtics_-5.5/-2.5_-170_Betus_Lostby8
            2/16_B_Celtics_-5.5/ML_-255 BookMaker_Wby3  54-2
    Remember JM rules say to take ML if favored by 3 or more.
    AJM_2/10_A_Hornets_+6_-110_Betus-Wonby8             54-2

    JM1_2/17_A_Hawks_-6.5/ML_-260_Betus
    AJM_2/17_A_Clips_+7_-110_Betus

    JM3_2/17_A_Kings_+4.5/+7.5
     
    avenue
    avenue
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    Posts: 7616
    Posted: Feb. 17, 2010 - 6:32 PM ET #370

    Are miami and san antonio not plays as well?
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    Are miami and san antonio not plays as well?
     
    smitler
    smitler
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    Posted: Feb. 17, 2010 - 9:25 PM ET #371

    I didn't play em. They are in the middle of road trip.
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    I didn't play em. They are in the middle of road trip.
     
    smitler
    smitler
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    Posted: Feb. 19, 2010 - 7:23 PM ET #372

    JM1_2/17_A_Hawks_-6.5/ML_-260_Betus_Wby18_55-2
    AJM_2/17_A_Clips_+7_-110_Betus
    AJM_2/19_B_Suns_-3.5-110_Betus

    JM1_2/19_A_Pacers_+4/7_-170_Betus_if your lucky you got 4.5 and could buy 3
    AJM_2/19_A_Hornets_-3.5_-110_Betus
    Reply
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    JM1_2/17_A_Hawks_-6.5/ML_-260_Betus_Wby18_55-2
    AJM_2/17_A_Clips_+7_-110_Betus
    AJM_2/19_B_Suns_-3.5-110_Betus

    JM1_2/19_A_Pacers_+4/7_-170_Betus_if your lucky you got 4.5 and could buy 3
    AJM_2/19_A_Hornets_-3.5_-110_Betus
     
    smitler
    smitler
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    Posts: 2387
    Posted: Feb. 20, 2010 - 12:21 PM ET #373

    Nice middle with the Pacers last night for a double win.

    JM1_2/17_A_Hawks_-6.5/ML_-260_Betus_Wby18_Record=55-2
    AJM_2/17_A_Clips_+7_-110_Betus_Lby18
    AJM_2/19_B_Suns_-3.5-110_Betus_Wby8_Record=55-2

    JM1_2/19_A_Pacers_+4/7_-170_Betus_if your lucky you got 4.5 and could buy 3_Lby6_Record=56-2
    AJM_2/19_A_Hornets_-3.5_-110_Betus_Wby6_Record=56-2

    Looks like a Bv3 play tonight on the Kings and two Av2 plays on the Bobcats/Bucks and 76ers/Bulls.
    The Bobcats next game on 2/22 will be a Av1 game and 76ers next game on 2/23 will also be a Av1.
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    Nice middle with the Pacers last night for a double win.

    JM1_2/17_A_Hawks_-6.5/ML_-260_Betus_Wby18_Record=55-2
    AJM_2/17_A_Clips_+7_-110_Betus_Lby18
    AJM_2/19_B_Suns_-3.5-110_Betus_Wby8_Record=55-2

    JM1_2/19_A_Pacers_+4/7_-170_Betus_if your lucky you got 4.5 and could buy 3_Lby6_Record=56-2
    AJM_2/19_A_Hornets_-3.5_-110_Betus_Wby6_Record=56-2

    Looks like a Bv3 play tonight on the Kings and two Av2 plays on the Bobcats/Bucks and 76ers/Bulls.
    The Bobcats next game on 2/22 will be a Av1 game and 76ers next game on 2/23 will also be a Av1.
     
    smitler
    smitler
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    Posted: Feb. 20, 2010 - 7:50 PM ET #374

    JM2_2/20_A_76ers_+5/+8_-170_Betus
    AJM_2/20_A_Bulls_-4_110_Betus

    JM2_2/20_A_Bobcats_+3/+6_-170_Betus
    AJM_2/20_A_Bucks_-3_-110_Betus
    That Bucks line hasn't moved all day.  Will wait till just before tip off.

    JM Version 3 B Kings tonight. will wait for line at tip off.

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    JM2_2/20_A_76ers_+5/+8_-170_Betus
    AJM_2/20_A_Bulls_-4_110_Betus

    JM2_2/20_A_Bobcats_+3/+6_-170_Betus
    AJM_2/20_A_Bucks_-3_-110_Betus
    That Bucks line hasn't moved all day.  Will wait till just before tip off.

    JM Version 3 B Kings tonight. will wait for line at tip off.

     
     
    smitler
    smitler
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    Posts: 2387
    Posted: Feb. 21, 2010 - 9:37 AM ET #375

    JM2_2/20_A_76ers_+5/+8_-170_Betus_Lostby32
    JM2_2/23_B_76ers
    JM1_2/23_A_76ers_Version 1 also since start of a 3-game road trip against western conference.

    AJM_2/20_A_Bulls_-4_110_Betus_Wonby32_Record=57-2
    AJM_2/23_A_Warriors


    JM2_2/20_A_Bobcats_+3/+6_-170_Betus_Lostby5_Record=57-2
    JM1_2/22_A_Bobcats_Version 1 since start of a 3-game road trip against western conference.
    AJM_2/20_A_Bucks_-3_-110_Betus_Wonby5_Record=58-2
    AJM_2/22_A_Clippers

    JM Version 3 C Kings tonight if you have the balls to play it.
    Reply
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    JM2_2/20_A_76ers_+5/+8_-170_Betus_Lostby32
    JM2_2/23_B_76ers
    JM1_2/23_A_76ers_Version 1 also since start of a 3-game road trip against western conference.

    AJM_2/20_A_Bulls_-4_110_Betus_Wonby32_Record=57-2
    AJM_2/23_A_Warriors


    JM2_2/20_A_Bobcats_+3/+6_-170_Betus_Lostby5_Record=57-2
    JM1_2/22_A_Bobcats_Version 1 since start of a 3-game road trip against western conference.
    AJM_2/20_A_Bucks_-3_-110_Betus_Wonby5_Record=58-2
    AJM_2/22_A_Clippers

    JM Version 3 C Kings tonight if you have the balls to play it.
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