Posted:
#101
Northwestern (-2) for us fools that didn't play it sooner. Does this change the value much?
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2012-13 BOWL GAMES SYSTEM
Posted:
#105
Quote Originally Posted by gratefulbets:
I double checked those #'s above (calculated at 1am, haha) and found one error, corrected below, and I also looked at +3 and above net value for last year and this year. Here are the comparisons: #'s in parenthesis are mid way through bowl season.
I double checked those #'s above (calculated at 1am, haha) and found one error, corrected below, and I also looked at +3 and above net value for last year and this year. Here are the comparisons: #'s in parenthesis are mid way through bowl season.
Group "A" Group "B" "A" and "B"
(same team)
2011: +3>= 19-6 (11-3) 14-10 (8-4) 9-2 (5-0)
2012: +3>= (6-10) 9 left (10-4) 10 left (5-3) 7 left
2011: +7>= 12-3 (7-1) 10-6 (5-2) 5-1 (4-0)
2012: +7>= (4-6) 6 left (6-1) 7 left 2-0 3 left
Update:
2012: +3>= (6-10) 9 left (10-4) 10 left (5-3) 7 left
12-31: (2-1) 6 left (2-1) 7 left (2-1) 4 left
2012: +7>= (4-6) 6 left (6-1) 7 left (2-0) 3 left
12-31: (0-1) 5 left (1-0) 6 left (0-0) 3 left
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Posted:
#109
Quote Originally Posted by gratefulbets:
One down, and many more to go...I just flew back from MGM Vegas where I made my Bowl wagers...
WIN...
UT......-10 |
UlLaf -5.5...W
Rice +1......W
OkSt -17....W
NW +2.5....W
Mi +5.5 .....W
3 team parlay: pays 6-1...W
Rice +1
OkSt -17
NW +2.5
CMi +175...W
Glad some of you did well with these red/green higher value plays. The blue plays did not fair as well as last year but still did 7-4, or 8-4, depending on your line.
I'm worn out with some of these close covers. Mi had a chance to win SU but just couldn't finish some sacks. I will also point out that Fresno was only 1/2 point too much to qualify for a red play, so I lucked out there. And CMi should not have been a play as I noticed I made a clerical error after the bet, so that was a lucky ML gift.
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Posted:
#110
9-5 on games thus far
-
Utah St
-
BYU
-
ULL
-
Fresno St
-
Central Michigan
-
SJ State
-
UL Monroe
-
Rutgers
-
Rice
-
Vandy
-
Ga Tech
-
Iowa St
-
Ok State
-
NorthWestern
-
Michigan
-
Florida
-
Clemson (added)
Lowest Net "A" value
-
Nevada
-
Central Florida
-
Boise St
-
Duke
-
Minnesota
-
Texas
-
TCU
-
LSU
-
Georgia
-
Stanford
-
Oregon
-
Tex AM
-
Pittsburgh
-
Notre Dame
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Posted:
#114
Quote Originally Posted by gratefulbets:
BTW, while I was researching these games, I ran another "system" that I had recently used, and similar to my NFL picks...here are the picks:
UtSt W
CMi W
Cin W
Bay W
Rice W
Syr W
Van W
Tulsa W
Stan W
ArSt
Only Tulsa is conflicting with a system pick, but it's a blue pick. It will be interesting to see if the remaining picks do as well.
GL
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Posted:
#116
glefkb01... remember, from my first post, the blue plays were not the highest value plays, and therefore, I recommended to not play any for serious money, only red and green plays. My only real bets were for $1k each, and the 3 team parlay that paid $1.2k, and the $100 ML that paid $175. I did play some of the blue picks for like $25, but that was mostly on that second system through internet book.
I'm definitely putting a few bucks on ArSt, since that system is now 9-0. I'm going to review the rest of the bowl games to see if there is anything more to play. I did put a small play on NIl for +15, hook, because it looked like a high #...it's now half-time.
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Posted:
#117
Also, as I'm trying to learn and share the nuances of this system with who's ever interested, the value of group "A" versus "B" has completely reversed this year from last year. That surprised me, but that is also the reason why I only play a team that has at least +7 value from both groups.
NFL playoff picks coming soon.
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Posted:
#119
[Quote: Originally Posted by gratefulbets]
Update:
Group "A" Group "B" "A" and "B" (same team) |
2012: +3>= (6-10) 9 left (10-4) 10 left (5-3) 7 left
12-31: (2-1) 6 left (2-1) 7 left (2-1) 4 left
01-01: (3-0) 3 left (4-0) 3 left (3-0 1 left
2012: +7>= (4-6) 6 left (6-1) 7 left (2-0) 3 left
12-31: (0-1) 5 left (1-0) 6 left (0-0) 3 left
01-01: (3-0) 2 left (4-0) 2 left (3-0) -------
Pitts
ArSt
Because group "B" +7 net value is now 11-1 for the season, I feel confident that these 2 games should be considered.GL
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Posted:
#122
Quote Originally Posted by bruin95:
I wasn't as fortunate as you guys on the Michigan play. Only got it at +4.5.
I wasn't as fortunate as you guys on the Michigan play. Only got it at +4.5.
I feel you bro. I got my play in an hour before kickoff at 4.5 Didn't think line would move back in our favor
@gratefulbets - This system of yours is it for closing lines or best line you could find until the game starts?
i.e. gatch & clem were both plays (and won!) at one point, but ended up no plays before gametime.
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Posted:
#123
glefkb01...it might have been confusing because the A group never did well, but B did. Remember, these last 2 plays are just from B group only, which has done well, but there is no guarantee!! But I like ArSt a little more because it is already a pick by my other system.
Air1...the plays are picked by the net value criteria which is a function of the team's gross value added to the line. So whenever the line moves to the number that creates the net value of +7 (or whatever number you want to use for your criteria) then it's a play. As some lines move during the weeks of the bowls, some games, like Clemson, become a play. The point of this system is that when a game meets the threshold and you lock in your position, you have the confidence that it's a high value play.
I don't play large bets online, only in Vega$, so once I fly r.t. to Vega$, I don't have the convenience of adding plays as the bowl lines change.
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Posted:
#124
| I feel you bro. I got my play in an hour before kickoff at 4.5 Didn't think line would move back in our favor |
Interestingly, that was not a high value play (+7) at +4.5. Both of my A and B groups had Mi at +2, and 2 + 4.5 = +6.5, not +7. Had you bought the line to +5, you would have had the minimum +7 net value, and you would have pushed.
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