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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    2012-13 BOWL GAMES SYSTEM

    «First Previous 123 ... 121314 Next Last»
    breezeyo
    Bart_
    gratefulbets
    Fanch
    glefkb01
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    «First Previous 123 ... 121314 Next Last»
     
    breezeyo
    breezeyo
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2013 - 2:30 PM ET #276

    What about Stanford/AZ State?  Isn't that a conflicting play?
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    What about Stanford/AZ State?  Isn't that a conflicting play?
     
    Bart_
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2013 - 5:01 PM ET #277

    are you playing teams under the "some value" category?
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    are you playing teams under the "some value" category?
     
    gratefulbets
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2013 - 9:15 PM ET #278

    glefkb01...No chance to back test as I don't have access to the Sagarin info that needs to be current at the time for the week in question. They only have a running cumulative so using this week's info is not germane to previous weeks. I'm now saving each week. 

    I can't comment on what I like as that has never been good enough for me to win enough with.
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    glefkb01...No chance to back test as I don't have access to the Sagarin info that needs to be current at the time for the week in question. They only have a running cumulative so using this week's info is not germane to previous weeks. I'm now saving each week. 

    I can't comment on what I like as that has never been good enough for me to win enough with.
     
    gratefulbets
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2013 - 9:17 PM ET #279

    Quote Originally Posted by breezeyo:

    What about Stanford/AZ State?  Isn't that a conflicting play?

    Not conflicting as I'm not looking at that group to bet on. I'm only tracking it. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by breezeyo:

    What about Stanford/AZ State?  Isn't that a conflicting play?

    Not conflicting as I'm not looking at that group to bet on. I'm only tracking it. 
     
    Bart_
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2013 - 10:24 PM ET #280

    Quote Originally Posted by gratefulbets:


    Not conflicting as I'm not looking at that group to bet on. I'm only tracking it. 
    are you talking about the Stanford group? 
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    Quote Originally Posted by gratefulbets:


    Not conflicting as I'm not looking at that group to bet on. I'm only tracking it. 
    are you talking about the Stanford group? 
     
    gratefulbets
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2013 - 11:56 PM ET #281

    Yes, the group designated as having "some value", is not a group I am betting on, only tracking. 
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    Yes, the group designated as having "some value", is not a group I am betting on, only tracking. 
     
    gratefulbets
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2013 - 12:06 AM ET #282

    Adding Central Florida with the new system:

    College new system
    (all of these plays have good value so another point higher should not matter)

    CFl -10

    NIL -3

    Mem pk

    ULL +3

    Mizz +2 

    Duke +29.5
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    Adding Central Florida with the new system:

    College new system
    (all of these plays have good value so another point higher should not matter)

    CFl -10

    NIL -3

    Mem pk

    ULL +3

    Mizz +2 

    Duke +29.5
     
    gratefulbets
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2013 - 12:11 AM ET #283

    Oh, starlight,  a lovely full red star, the first star I see tonight...
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    Oh, starlight,  a lovely full red star, the first star I see tonight...
     
    Fanch
    Fanch
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2013 - 12:34 AM ET #284

     So just to be clear, are the plays above the ones you re playing or some additional. are the "official" plays ucf, niu, Mem, ULL,Mizz, and duke?
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     So just to be clear, are the plays above the ones you re playing or some additional. are the "official" plays ucf, niu, Mem, ULL,Mizz, and duke?
     
    glefkb01
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2013 - 8:52 AM ET #285

    old system 0 new system 1
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    old system 0 new system 1
     
    gratefulbets
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2013 - 11:23 AM ET #286

    Quote Originally Posted by Fanch:

     So just to be clear, are the plays above the ones you re playing or some additional. are the "official" plays ucf, niu, Mem, ULL,Mizz, and duke?

    yep
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fanch:

     So just to be clear, are the plays above the ones you re playing or some additional. are the "official" plays ucf, niu, Mem, ULL,Mizz, and duke?

    yep
     
    gratefulbets
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2013 - 11:33 AM ET #287



    " I will bet small on every play from both systems; where both teams are picked from the same game, I'll default to the new system: Jax and Ind. College has no conflicting plays"

    I AM NOT PLAYING FROM THESE SUBSETS, ONLY TRACKING:

    hese plays also have some value, not as much as the plays above, but I'm not sure where the minimum value should be set.
    Lou -3.5
    Tex +13.5
    Marsh -4.5
    Stan +3
    MiSt +5
    UtSt +3

    These plays also have some value, not as much as the plays above, but I'm not sure where the minimum value should be set.
    Min +6.5
    Det +2.5
    StL +6
    NYG +3 
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    " I will bet small on every play from both systems; where both teams are picked from the same game, I'll default to the new system: Jax and Ind. College has no conflicting plays"

    I AM NOT PLAYING FROM THESE SUBSETS, ONLY TRACKING:

    hese plays also have some value, not as much as the plays above, but I'm not sure where the minimum value should be set.
    Lou -3.5
    Tex +13.5
    Marsh -4.5
    Stan +3
    MiSt +5
    UtSt +3

    These plays also have some value, not as much as the plays above, but I'm not sure where the minimum value should be set.
    Min +6.5
    Det +2.5
    StL +6
    NYG +3 
     
    gratefulbets
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2013 - 9:49 PM ET #288

    So I came home early from work as I might be getting a cold. I was planning to go to Vegas today or early tomorrow morning, but I may not as I'll probably be worse.
    Anyway, as I'm watching this MAC game, I'm looking at my spread sheet and noticed that I put the net value for BGr in NIl row. So actually that makes BGr a play in my regular system, which for college has been the best system. I went back through and checked all of the other college games and found them to be correct. 

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    So I came home early from work as I might be getting a cold. I was planning to go to Vegas today or early tomorrow morning, but I may not as I'll probably be worse.
    Anyway, as I'm watching this MAC game, I'm looking at my spread sheet and noticed that I put the net value for BGr in NIl row. So actually that makes BGr a play in my regular system, which for college has been the best system. I went back through and checked all of the other college games and found them to be correct. 

     
    breezeyo
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    Posted: Dec. 6, 2013 - 10:54 PM ET #289

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    gratefulbets
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2013 - 12:38 AM ET #290

    Quote Originally Posted by Fanch:

     So just to be clear, are the plays above the ones you re playing or some additional. are the "official" plays ucf, niu, Mem, ULL,Mizz, and duke?

    You forgot to include these:
    College regular system 

    USF +5.5 ~ pk…(as stated above, I'm not playing this game)

    OkSt  -10 ~ -10

    AzSt -3 ~ -6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Fanch:

     So just to be clear, are the plays above the ones you re playing or some additional. are the "official" plays ucf, niu, Mem, ULL,Mizz, and duke?

    You forgot to include these:
    College regular system 

    USF +5.5 ~ pk…(as stated above, I'm not playing this game)

    OkSt  -10 ~ -10

    AzSt -3 ~ -6


     
    gratefulbets
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2013 - 1:46 AM ET #291

    Quote Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

    Adding Central Florida with the new system:

    College new system
    (all of these plays have good value so another point higher should not matter)

    CFl -10

    NIL -3

    Mem pk

    ULL +3  QB not playing

    Mizz +2 

    Duke +29.5
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    Quote Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

    Adding Central Florida with the new system:

    College new system
    (all of these plays have good value so another point higher should not matter)

    CFl -10

    NIL -3

    Mem pk

    ULL +3  QB not playing

    Mizz +2 

    Duke +29.5
     
    glefkb01
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2013 - 6:22 AM ET #292

    NIU looked horrid.....small wager small mistake.
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    NIU looked horrid.....small wager small mistake.
     
    glefkb01
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2013 - 10:12 AM ET #293


    College regular system 

    730pm   USF +5.5 ~ pk

    12pm    OkSt  -10 ~ -10

    745pm   AzSt -3 ~ -6

    College new system
    (all of these plays have good value so another point higher should not matter)

    NIL -3  MISTAKE/ACCIENT
     
    12pm UCF -10 (Line has moved 5-6 pts since opening)
    1pm   Mem pk

    4pm   Mizz +2
     
    8pm   ULL +3 (QB Not playing)

    8pm   Duke +29.5

    TRACKING GAMES BELOW.
    Lou -3.5 winner
    330pm  Tex +13.5
    12pm    Marsh -4.5
    745pm  Stan +3
    817pm  MiSt +5
    10pm    UtSt +3


    Starting the day with UCF, Oklahoma State, and Memphis
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    College regular system 

    730pm   USF +5.5 ~ pk

    12pm    OkSt  -10 ~ -10

    745pm   AzSt -3 ~ -6

    College new system
    (all of these plays have good value so another point higher should not matter)

    NIL -3  MISTAKE/ACCIENT
     
    12pm UCF -10 (Line has moved 5-6 pts since opening)
    1pm   Mem pk

    4pm   Mizz +2
     
    8pm   ULL +3 (QB Not playing)

    8pm   Duke +29.5

    TRACKING GAMES BELOW.
    Lou -3.5 winner
    330pm  Tex +13.5
    12pm    Marsh -4.5
    745pm  Stan +3
    817pm  MiSt +5
    10pm    UtSt +3


    Starting the day with UCF, Oklahoma State, and Memphis
     
    Bart_
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2013 - 10:48 AM ET #294

    USF has been eliminated. Post 274
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    USF has been eliminated. Post 274
     
    glefkb01
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2013 - 11:20 AM ET #295

    my bad...cut and pasted forgot to erase
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    my bad...cut and pasted forgot to erase
     
    glefkb01
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2013 - 11:21 AM ET #296

    Quote Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

    I will probably eliminate USF from my picks. Just too weak of a team with new issues for me to bet on. They are 4-0 ATS away, but going to 30 degree weather from Tampa might be too much to stay within 6 points.
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    Quote Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

    I will probably eliminate USF from my picks. Just too weak of a team with new issues for me to bet on. They are 4-0 ATS away, but going to 30 degree weather from Tampa might be too much to stay within 6 points.
     
    glefkb01
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2013 - 1:37 PM ET #297

    OOOOoooo boy.

    Looks like the weather is keeping Ok St from running away from the Sooners....Have confidence the Cowboys get going.

    Stayed away from UCF game, too many points moved since line opened.   They are getting killed.

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    OOOOoooo boy.

    Looks like the weather is keeping Ok St from running away from the Sooners....Have confidence the Cowboys get going.

    Stayed away from UCF game, too many points moved since line opened.   They are getting killed.

     
    glefkb01
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2013 - 2:45 PM ET #298

     

    College regular system 
    730pm   USF   ***** maybe eliminated
     
    12pm    OkSt  -10 ~ -10Cmon Cowboys!

    745pm   AzSt -3 ~ -6

    College new system
    (all of these plays have good value so another point higher should not matter)

    NIL -3  MISTAKE/ACCIENT
     
    12pm UCF -10 (Line has moved 5-6 pts since opening)
     
    1pm   Mem pk

    4pm   Mizz +2
     
    8pm   ULL +3 (QB Not playing)

    8pm   Duke +29.5

    TRACKING GAMES BELOW.
    Lou -3.5 winner
    330pm  Tex +13.5
    12pm    Marsh -4.5 blowout
    745pm  Stan +3
    817pm  MiSt +5
    10pm    UtSt +3


     
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    College regular system 
    730pm   USF   ***** maybe eliminated
     
    12pm    OkSt  -10 ~ -10Cmon Cowboys!

    745pm   AzSt -3 ~ -6

    College new system
    (all of these plays have good value so another point higher should not matter)

    NIL -3  MISTAKE/ACCIENT
     
    12pm UCF -10 (Line has moved 5-6 pts since opening)
     
    1pm   Mem pk

    4pm   Mizz +2
     
    8pm   ULL +3 (QB Not playing)

    8pm   Duke +29.5

    TRACKING GAMES BELOW.
    Lou -3.5 winner
    330pm  Tex +13.5
    12pm    Marsh -4.5 blowout
    745pm  Stan +3
    817pm  MiSt +5
    10pm    UtSt +3


     
     
    glefkb01
    glefkb01
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 2554
    Posted: Dec. 7, 2013 - 3:10 PM ET #299

    Okie State

    Memphis

    UCF

    0-3 early games!

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    Okie State

    Memphis

    UCF

    0-3 early games!

     
     
    gratefulbets
    gratefulbets
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2004
    Posts: 5547
    Posted: Dec. 7, 2013 - 4:09 PM ET #300

    glefkb01…I'm not too concerned with this new system of picks for college, they seem to work well for the NFL, now 8-1-1, so I'm looking forward to tracking them throughout the NFL season.  
    The basis of the college bowl system has been winning overall in the regular season's past 4 weeks, 1-1 this week with AzSt pending. 
    I don't regard this new system as critical for my college betting plan, just something that looked interesting, but was never back tested in college. I never got to Vegas this week but I would have bet big on OkSt and AzSt, and of course, I missed out on the BGr play. 
    I expect we'll do well in the bowls, but I'm really hoping that this new NFL system of plays stays on track.
    Reply
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    glefkb01…I'm not too concerned with this new system of picks for college, they seem to work well for the NFL, now 8-1-1, so I'm looking forward to tracking them throughout the NFL season.  
    The basis of the college bowl system has been winning overall in the regular season's past 4 weeks, 1-1 this week with AzSt pending. 
    I don't regard this new system as critical for my college betting plan, just something that looked interesting, but was never back tested in college. I never got to Vegas this week but I would have bet big on OkSt and AzSt, and of course, I missed out on the BGr play. 
    I expect we'll do well in the bowls, but I'm really hoping that this new NFL system of plays stays on track.
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