Serious Streak Survivor Strategies

Here's a stat for yall. Lakers-Denver have gone Under the number 7 times in a row and 9 out of the last 10. I'm not testing fate. Den-Lakers Under 200.5 for the Cash! Let's Ride!

SMOOTHD'S PLAY OF THE DAY!!!!

Yeah you guys are right, I really just need to slow it down and not just take a pick because I want to get to the cash faster, and my guts got me this far.  Plus I really like how you put it, all I need is a streak of 4 right now, not 17, makes it look a whole lot more manageable like that, thanks.

                   FREE BOOYAHZ NOW!
                                                                               
               

     I just wanted to take a moment to thank you guys from the bottom of my heart for the overwhelming support that you  gave me both on here and on ESPN as I was riding high for a quick minute. That was really fun, but after it all ended, it left me drained of energy and passion for picking games.
      I apologize for not getting back to you fine fellows until now. While it was all going on, I spent every minute of my time capping the games and matchups. I just wanted to get it right. Then, after it all came crashing down around me, my spirits were down to the extent that I didn't feel like posting anything. All that I could do was think about the games that I didn't take and the things that I didn't do; laying out all of the scenarios that would have ended with glory.
     I'm done with that now! So I will end this post by offering a HIUGE THANKS to SmoothD, Crushalot, Booyahz, Plisskin, Trax, Quad, EdwardGlennX and everyone else that cheered me on and congratulated those accomplishments. Thanks also for the condolences.

- SmoothD: I am remiss for not offering my condolences to you for falling short of another Cap. I was saddened to see you not get it. I really wanted it for you! Those pesky Marlins are proving to be this year's Cubbies. lol We can't win with them or against them so we should just avoid them, I think. They also ended my run on here at 11 games in a row.

*HUGE THANKS
lol

FREE BOOYAHZ!

No problem Bama. You're a class act and there is no doubt that you will hit the money train on one of these streaks. It's a new month so let's ride again!  

Yeah that was one amazing run Bama, riding 2 leader boards at the same time was just an unbelievable accomplishment.  I completely owe W11 on here to you, I saw you on STL and figured with the amazing picking you were doing on both sites I'd tag along with that pick, so thank you.

Thanks again, Smooth and Trax!

     Congrats on your EPIC RUN,Trax! I am glad you got one of them from me. That makes me feel like my streak went for something other than a cap. I am so glad to see you get that hoodie, bro! You will like it, I think, if they haven't changed them. I liked mine a whole lot! The site describes it as being a jacket, but it is really a hooded sweatshirt with the Covers logo embroidered on the neck of the hood. It's sharp! It is really warm and also complements the cap nicely.

     Good luck to you on your quest, Trax, my friend! My advice to you mirrors that of Smooth's and Crush's. It is the best advice, in my opinion. You got here on the merit of your own capping skills and decision making. Let no one sway you! You know what is right and you also know the potential pitfalls. Nothing is certain and danger lies around every corner. Be cautious! That said, glory also lies around the corner and I sense big things for you. You will know what to do when then the perfect play comes along. Don't settle for less! If there is one thing you question about your pick, then don't do it. There is a fine line between effective research and over-thinking. I have faith that you will advance to the next tier. Just think of it as one game at a time! Best of luck, brother! I know it is tough in the hot seat,but it is where we all strive to be. Congrats again on getting here.

I'd like to give a hearty welcome aboard to CZECH_RAZOR! Your system is sound and is exactly the same type of thing that Booyahz has been opening our eyes to for the last year. Tracking line movements is smart, to be sure. It is also profitable.

     Don't beat yourself up anymore about it, Czech. The playoffs are a different animal and I have no doubt that the system bears itself out in the regular season.Sharps, Busters, and Books alike are scuffling right now to try and get a handle on things. So far, the stats are bearing themselves out and the higher seeds are, unsurprisingly to me, dominating the lowers seeds for the most part.

     Right now, I envision Vegas as being the little man behind the curtain in the Emerald City as Toto pulls it back! He turns red and sheepishly says, " Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!". Still, Vegas has made enough money off the backs of the Busters during the regular season that a poor playoff showing won't make much of a dent in their coffers.

O-Ee-Yah! Eoh-Ah! O-Ee-Yah! Eoh-Ah! O-Ee-Yah! Eoh-Ah! O-Ee-Yah! Eoh-Ah!

The money is pouring in the Lakers-Denver Under as the Sharps have joined the Wise Guys in punishing the Books for this huge Overlay. The odds were -105 and now up to -115. It opened with the Over being the favorite now the Under is Favorite. Join the party and cash in!  I'm on this big time and putting yesterday's profits on the Under! Good Luck  $25 Dime Club!

I, too, am riding the wave of Buster Success tonight, fellas! Ain't nuthin' but a Buster Party!

Los Angeles Lakers -5

Sorry: due to the consensus, we cannot accept your ticket to tonight's Denver beatdown.

I got that consensus thingy last night, again, when I attempted repeatedly, but eventually successfully, to lock in my favorite play of the day on Survivor.

     I have been amused by all of the Denver Nuggets's crying about the Laker's cheating and playing  illegal defense. They accused Andrew Bynum of camping out in the paint, but they allow it to happen by sending men through there every 2 1/2 seconds in an attempt to get open. If you are crying, then you have allowed your opponent to get in your head. If your opponent is in your head, then you are not focused on playing your game. If you are not focused on playing your game, then your opponent is going to own you. Don't allow your opponent to own you. I expect LA to beat that Nugget Ass again tonight! The size of the Lakers is too much for Denver to overcome unless they fast-break and are perfect in their execution. Can they be perfect?

The Black Mamba Strikes Again! Bynum will be an unstoppable force again, as well, in my opinion.

Good luck tonight, 25 Dime Club! Let's ride in style for the whole month MAY!  Let the good times roll!

This seems like a classic Steam move to me, Smooth! When busters and wise guys alike are on the same thing, Vegas has no choice but to move the line against them repeatedly. These situations do not usually have a favorable result for the Books.

All aboard! All aboard! Woo-Woo! Woo-Woo! the Steam engine will be departing soon!

Also, congrats on the killing you made with the Brew Crew last night! I agree. This was not really a Czech system qualifying play due to a lack of line movement. Milwaukee opened as a slight favorite (-110) and the line closed with them as a slight favorite (-105). Roughly 70% percent were on Milwaukee, so the books took a beating on the game. Who is to say that the 70% were all Busters? I imagine that Wise Guys and Busters alike comprised the 70%. Vegas thought they had 'em all by the balls, so they did not move the line, thinking that San Diego would win. One must be careful when betting against the high percentages, because sometimes the Busters and Sharps alike band together to  beat the books. If this were a Sharp play, then the line would have closed with San Diego as a significant favorite.

      It is all very confusing anyway, but I will post some good Smart money 101, Sharp/ Square 101, and Steam moves 101 info later if anyone would like. It is all about identifying exactly what type of line movement is going on in relation to the percentages of wagers placed. Incorrectly identifying the type of move and what is moving it can lead to disaster. The rewards of knowing what is going on make it worth pursuing, however

Personally, I favor an approach that involves intensive knowledge of the sports and teams invlolved along with considering the line moves. For me it is stats, trends, hot and coldstreaks, and injuries first and line moves secondly. My favorite type of line movement is the early identification of a steam move. As Crushalot stated, they can quickly drive a baseball game from -130 to -150 before lunchtime! These are invaluable for Survivor purposes.

May 1 POD

Plus not that many good match ups tonight in my opinion.

Red Sox O9 -110

Dodgers -105

NBA to follow....

Bama,you had a hell of a double run and am sure you'll do it again!!

Again nice work and it's always such a mental blow when it ends, but just come back stronger!!

Looks like the world is on the hawks tonite,eek. This is scary and i expect boston to play better in game 2. Boston did outscore ATL in 2nd half.

Busters usually overestimate injuries and missing key players,,so we'll see.

I took another Parlay tonight- Yankees, St.Louis, Arizona and the Angels. It will pay around $100 if it hits!

YAY Smooth! lol

NBA

Boston/ATL  Under173.5

Edwardglenn- My bad! I get all you Texas boys mixed up. I keep forgetting how all yall hate other. LOL. Worse than California with that in State rivalry stuff. But you know I'm with you on them damn Cowboys. I hate them with a passion. Even worse growing up in Southern Cal because those eggheads trained in Southern Cal for decades. So all the ladies just loved the Cowboys. 2010 highlight for me was when I went to Minnesota and saw my Vikings beat the snot out of them boys after kicking their Ass in the Playoffs the year before. Unfortunately there haven't been many highlights since but hey we had a good draft and we could sneak up on some folks this year even though our schedule is brutal for a last place team. 

Everyone: