Red Card Goal Tracking Thread #2

189/148 +$3,550

Suwon Bluewings over 1.5 -105 (1-0)

Pohang over 3.5 +100 (1-2)

@Alfalfa9

 Gotcha ill check those out! And definitely will let you know!

Tampere United over 3.5 -105 (0-2)

Rentistas over 2.5 +105 (1-1)

Ovalle over 3.5 +100 (1-1)

Jeju United over 1.5 +115 (0-0)

Cheonan City over 1.5 +100 (0-0)

Chungnam Ansan over 0.5 -115

Maghreb Fes over 2.5 +110 (1-0)

@Alfalfa9

 This answered one thing I was wondering. The red card occurred when it was 0-0 (worst case), but now its 1-0 red card to trailing team (best case), wasnt sure if you were only considering the situations exactly when the red happened or if it evolved. 

Driving back from Maine. Took plays below, listing for tracking purposes. 

Midland over 1.5 -115 (0-1)

Talca over 2.5 +125 (2-0)

Club Libertad W over 2.5 +110 (1-0)

Mexico over 4.5 +130 (1-2)

Deportivo Muniz over 2.5 +100 (1-1)

Ivinhema over 1.5 -110 (1-0)

198/154 +$3,760

BTW I still think its too early to draw conclusions, right now i am only betting when trailing team gets a red, but here are my stats so far. I have improved the collection system a bit since I started. Early on I was missing more than I should have. Had to determine some rules for when the other team gets a red and when to count it and when to throw away that game.

Overall though I am tracking the same as your original post, red to trailing the best, red in a 0-0 the worst

Edit: The tables I pasted in didnt make it, trying again after pasting it into notepad:

Red to trailing (all) 44 25 19 56.8% 44.0 +7.30 16.6% 27.7
Red to leading (all) 33 17 16 51.5% 33.0 -0.44 -1.3% 29.5
Tied (0-0) 27 9 18 33.3% 27.0 -11.21 -41.5% 46.8
Tied (non 0-0) 12 5 7 41.7% 12.0 -0.65 -5.4% 20.4

Metric All Leagues
Settled (N) 116
Wins 56
Losses 60
Hit % 48.3%
Net Units -5.00
ROI -4.3%

KuPS over 2.5 -105 (0-2)

Shamrock Rovers over 1.5 -110 (1-0)

New England FC over 5.5 -110 (4-1)

I believe I have asked Alfa this a few weeks ago. Not to step on your toes Alfa.

I put the goal difference and the losing team in AI over and over in game. I also scraped the odds from oddsportal to see if it beats the algorithms of the books. As far as the math goes the odds react to the red card as a positive to goals scored when in fact the opposite is more statistically correct. Team will shut it it down and nothing will happen when a red card is issued is the better play. I still think any mechanical "system" is bound to fail. However you can still bet on its predictions

I also know you mentioned the time of the red matters and mentioned between the 60-7otth as the sweet spot. I did not do that big of a deep dive but BOL to you and thanks for sharing