Posted:
#976
Quote Originally Posted by garbagetime:
Hi, haven't seen thread 1, when I have a chance I'll seek it out. I've done a lot of work on this type of topic (I've written a book manuscript football/futbol betting that's been with a publisher for a year now), and I can verify that the most important aspect of all betting is price, because all bets are essentially 50-50 no matter what the odds say...therefore it seldom pays to take a bet with any juice. I have one exception to this, but in every other case I only bet large underdogs (my rule is I bet against favorites of 2.00 or under). That way my losses are 1 unit, while my wins are 2.5 to 6 units. I look for cases where for example something that happens 33% of the time is paid as if it happens 25% of the time. Using my strategy generally I would sort all that data, and if I found that South American teams were costing me money, I wouldn't play them anymore. One thing I've found is that there are some leagues where a late goal often is answered by a second late goal. But these are probably not the case in red card situations, where you've got one team that you don't expect will score again. Another thing I've found is that a team holding a 1-goal advantage that is suddenly playing 11 against 10 won't score another goal necessarily even when the odds are priced as if it's a gimme. They don't need to score another, and they often don't. The incidence of another goal is much higher, actually, when they really don't need to score again (say, they're leading 3-nil) and are merely scoring for fun (or more likely they've already shown that their opponent can't defend). By the way, the place where I originally concluded that getting plus-money was the most important aspect involved totals in the lower English leagues. It's uncanny how the matches with the best odds for over 2.5 goals (typically +113 or so) are the ones that go over, not the matches paying -140.
This all makes sense to me and have observed all the same over my years watching 10s of thousands of matches. Hi, haven't seen thread 1, when I have a chance I'll seek it out. I've done a lot of work on this type of topic (I've written a book manuscript football/futbol betting that's been with a publisher for a year now), and I can verify that the most important aspect of all betting is price, because all bets are essentially 50-50 no matter what the odds say...therefore it seldom pays to take a bet with any juice. I have one exception to this, but in every other case I only bet large underdogs (my rule is I bet against favorites of 2.00 or under). That way my losses are 1 unit, while my wins are 2.5 to 6 units. I look for cases where for example something that happens 33% of the time is paid as if it happens 25% of the time. Using my strategy generally I would sort all that data, and if I found that South American teams were costing me money, I wouldn't play them anymore. One thing I've found is that there are some leagues where a late goal often is answered by a second late goal. But these are probably not the case in red card situations, where you've got one team that you don't expect will score again. Another thing I've found is that a team holding a 1-goal advantage that is suddenly playing 11 against 10 won't score another goal necessarily even when the odds are priced as if it's a gimme. They don't need to score another, and they often don't. The incidence of another goal is much higher, actually, when they really don't need to score again (say, they're leading 3-nil) and are merely scoring for fun (or more likely they've already shown that their opponent can't defend). By the way, the place where I originally concluded that getting plus-money was the most important aspect involved totals in the lower English leagues. It's uncanny how the matches with the best odds for over 2.5 goals (typically +113 or so) are the ones that go over, not the matches paying -140.
goodluck with the manuscript/book, feel free to share once published I would be interested.
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