Red Card Goal Tracking Thread #2

Huracan over 1.5 -105 (1-0)

Wisla Krakow over 3.5 -110 (2-1)

PSG over 2.5 +100 (1-0)

Monagas B over 3.5 +100 (1-1)

FK Partizan over 2.5 +110 (0-1)

Zemun Belgrade over 1.5 -105 (0-1)

Always Ready over 1.5 -105 (1-0)

Monagas B over 4.5 -105 (2-2)

Always Ready over 2.5 +165 (1-1)

CD Transindo over 3.5 +105 (1-2)

413/337 +$7,780

Madryn over 2.5 +100 (2-0)

Osorno over 1.5 +110 (1-0)

Temperly over 2.5 +105 (2-0)

415/338 +$7,885

Colon FC over 2.5 +105 (1-0)

No CA over? We all on it in p thread. You're killing it man 

Olimpia over 3.5 -110 (2-1)

417/338 +$8,081

CD FAS over 2.5 -105 (1-1)

Antofagasta over 1.5 +105 (0-1)

419/338 +$8,281

Defensor Sporting Reserves over 2.5 +130 (1-1)

Hi, interesting thread and idea. I'm curious whether you've kept a database of picks in a sortable Excel doc. I've tracked matches where a side have two or men sent off in a match since 2013, and I'd be willing to bet (see what I did there?) that your results will be very different in South/Central America (way fewer goals of any kind), and similarly different when the team that gets the red is a large underdog, vs when the team with the man sent off is the original large favorite. I also would imagine that the timing of the red card is very important to your bets. haven't sifted through 39 pages, here, are there any cards that you ignore because they happen at 89 minutes or something? What's your threshold?

At the end of the day, the data came back as a possible winning strategy, over a long-term. However, just like any other betting, reducing the juice seemed to play the most important role for realizing the strategy to fullest potential. I lost money on what seemed like a winning strategy (thread 1) and once I started only playing reduced or + juice, you’re seeing the significant change in my results in this thread. Additionally, I’ve significantly stopped “adding” to plays already won (IE- trying to win 2 bets in 1 match) and have passed on low % scenarios way more frequently (IE - 0-0 and 2-0 scenarios). 

South America (no data to prove this) does seem a lot less reliable for this red card strategy. Not sure why but I’d agree with you. Lots of leagues are lower scoring in general so it could just be a simple as that.   

It’s subjective, but yes I generally don’t touch any bets with a red past 85+min. Of course, there are some scenarios where a goal is most likely coming and the odds are generally very great by then. 

Hi, haven't seen thread 1, when I have a chance I'll seek it out.

I've done a lot of work on this type of topic (I've written a book manuscript football/futbol betting that's been with a publisher for a year now), and I can verify that the most important aspect of all betting is price, because all bets are essentially 50-50 no matter what the odds say...therefore it seldom pays to take a bet with any juice. I have one exception to this, but in every other case I only bet large underdogs (my rule is I bet against favorites of 2.00 or under). That way my losses are 1 unit, while my wins are 2.5 to 6 units. I look for cases where for example something that happens 33% of the time is paid as if it happens 25% of the time.

Using my strategy generally I would sort all that data, and if I found that South American teams were costing me money, I wouldn't play them anymore.

One thing I've found is that there are some leagues where a late goal often is answered by a second late goal. But these are probably not the case in red card situations, where you've got one team that you don't expect will score again. Another thing I've found is that a team holding a 1-goal advantage that is suddenly playing 11 against 10 won't score another goal necessarily even when the odds are priced as if it's a gimme. They don't need to score another, and they often don't. The incidence of another goal is much higher, actually, when they really don't need to score again (say, they're leading 3-nil) and are merely scoring for fun (or more likely they've already shown that their opponent can't defend).

By the way, the place where I originally concluded that getting plus-money was the most important aspect involved totals in the lower English leagues. It's uncanny how the matches with the best odds for over 2.5 goals (typically +113 or so) are the ones that go over, not the matches paying -140.