Posted:
#426
Quote Originally Posted by DiamondJack:
I believe I have asked Alfa this a few weeks ago. Not to step on your toes Alfa. I put the goal difference and the losing team in AI over and over in game. I also scraped the odds from oddsportal to see if it beats the algorithms of the books. As far as the math goes the odds react to the red card as a positive to goals scored when in fact the opposite is more statistically correct. Team will shut it it down and nothing will happen when a red card is issued is the better play. I still think any mechanical "system" is bound to fail. However you can still bet on its predictions I also know you mentioned the time of the red matters and mentioned between the 60-7otth as the sweet spot. I did not do that big of a deep dive but BOL to you and thanks for sharing
I agree in theory but would still love to see a large data set to prove the theory. As I said, there are general principles I follow for my bets but it’s very much subjective based on the match, situation, lines, etc. This thread was never meant to be a “system” from day one. I’m using my experience (15+ years) to gain some sort of edge over the oddsmakers.
I believe I have asked Alfa this a few weeks ago. Not to step on your toes Alfa. I put the goal difference and the losing team in AI over and over in game. I also scraped the odds from oddsportal to see if it beats the algorithms of the books. As far as the math goes the odds react to the red card as a positive to goals scored when in fact the opposite is more statistically correct. Team will shut it it down and nothing will happen when a red card is issued is the better play. I still think any mechanical "system" is bound to fail. However you can still bet on its predictions I also know you mentioned the time of the red matters and mentioned between the 60-7otth as the sweet spot. I did not do that big of a deep dive but BOL to you and thanks for sharing
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