L2T Footy Theories /Plays

We will make some good money if you stay committed and don't get cute on the OVERS ideas.... 

Play Week before > Premier League OVER 2.5 (big) and Over 3.5 (smaller) as we get deeper into season

-many coaches have 4-5 days before a UCL game and they preach offense/ball movement rather than possession in their league games before to simulate UCL type games 

Play Week After > same as above but cut bet size in half ....stay away from 3.5 goals unless you really like something 

Play UCL Division games Over 2.5 if you can get it and OVER 3.5 on all others .....you can be selective and should hit the same high % to make money (note: pay attention to injuries before you make a play and decide to lay OV3.5 > midfielders are key if they are very involved in offense moreso than strikers because best teams always have a good goal hungry striker ready to impress)

I always wait for Week 1 and a few league games every year before I pick one league to exploit and PL is it this year....looking at German soccer now and will probably add....insane goal scoring going on early!! (They get the most rest off than any other league and 2-4 game schedule shorter so players go all out I find)

We are full on now... 

Its kind of frustrating watching Man City and Monaco not wanting to score another goal....for about 40 minutes now......they got 3 goals in under 50 minutes!

PSG - Barcelona not playing a free flowing game....too bad....still time left and 1-1

Anything can happen because Bodo and Tottenham score 2 goals in about 3 minutes and 3 in about 20 min

My UCL TOTAL PLAYS:  -BET365 has already credit my account with early payout when achieved 

Over 2.5 goals

Bodo pays 1.7 x 2U   > returns $170 

Marseille pays 1.62 x 1U  > returns $81 

Over 3.5 goals Plays:

Barcelona/PSG 1.95 x 2 Units   ....pathetic !

Monaco/Man City +115 x 1 Units   > returns $57

A.Madrid/Frankfurt +105 x 3 Units   > returns $315 

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 $450 on the line  > $673 returned 

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UCL OVERS account = $+223  

Premier League OVERS account = $+140

Weekend Premier leagues OVERS next ..... some select UCL teams from other leagues....

I am on post UCL overs on SELECT TEAMS this weekend:

All 1 Unit ($50 each)

Dortmund Ov 3.5 +115

Bayern M Ov 3.5  +75 and Ov 4.5  +135

Real Mad Ov 2.5 +55 and Ov 3.5  +110

Been trying to post all morning but Covers keeps timing out.....sorry but thread and many pages not working for whatever reason 

I did not read the tea leaves correctly after the UCL  .....and its going to cost me!

I did not look ahead and see that International play is coming up and clubs tend to scale back their stars at least in the second half or they do it themselves 

I am not going to make that mistake again

Might have just shipped -250 down the drain... $150 for sure

I am on post UCL overs on SELECT TEAMS this weekend:

All 1 Unit ($50 each)

Dortmund Ov 3.5 +115   

Bayern M Ov 3.5  +75 and Ov 4.5  +135   

Real Mad Ov 2.5 +55   and Ov 3.5  +110 

UCL OVERS account = $+223  

Premier League OVERS account = $+140

Post UCL games (Over selections) = -$68

I have been BUSY ....inputting and sorting data. Things are going to dribble out as I am in the compiling stages now and you should start to see some game. I have inputted every game in 11 Leagues of which 2 of them are 2nd Division because the two that I have chosen, I find I can get a good read on patterns.

First set of data:

(a) When happens the next game after a Win? (b) Which leagues show high % options for next game following a win?

(will use this to gauge how to bet some teams for their next game coming up)

Next game? (over 500+ recorded situations)

Wins next one = 41.3% all leagues  > team wins the next game (going down)

highest > Turkey Super (56.5%),Italy (51%), Bundesliga (51%)

lowest > France Ligue 2 (18/53)/ Premier League (15/43)

Loses next one = 39.6%  (going up as season progresses)

highest > France 1 (50%), France 2 (41.5%)

lowest > Turkey (15.6%), League 1 (30.3%)

Ties next one = 19.1%    

highest > Turkey Super (29%)

lowest > France 1 (2/40 = 5%)

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(c ) What happens after a LOSS? (d) Which teams show anomalies after a loss?

Wins next one = 35.4% all leagues  > team wins the next game (going up)

highest > Premier League (39.5%), France 2 (39%),  League 1 (38%) 

lowest > Spain (28%). Portugal (30.5%)

Loses next one = 40.7% all leagues > team loses the next game (also going up)

highest > Bundesliga (51.5%). Turkey (47%)

lowest > Germany 2 (12%) France 2 (29%) 

Ties next one = 23.9% all leagues > team ties the next game ( going down)

highest > Spain (40.4%), Portugal (38.5%)

lowest > League 1 (16.1%), Bundesliga (16.2%), Turkey (17.6%)

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(e) What happens after a Tie game > next game?  (f) significant league anomalies

Win next one = 36.9% (up) > France 2 (50% win rate next game)

Lose next one = 38.1% 

Ties next one = 25%  > Bundesliga (only 8.5% will tie next game )

Lots of data coming next once sorted.....what happens after 2 types of games? (will provide only anomalies to tap)

whoops...wrong thread posted

Before I get into 2 game pattern and the best next result after....... I see a LEAGUE 1 game coming up that I really like and will apply one of the stats to this game:

Two Game Pattern Bet:  Huddersfield +140 x 2U (excellent value) 

Also: Half U correct score play just in case there is a tie 1-1 pays +550 ....would be shocked if it ends 0-0 with 2 weeks off for the home side being primed for this game !

-when a team wins and then then loses the next game, they hit the win on the 3rd game of the pattern 16 out of 30x vs a tie or a loss in LEAGUE 1

-both teams in this pattern for this game BUT Bolton has only scored 3 goals and given up 10 goals on the road

- Huddersfield has scored 10 at home vs 4 goals allowed.....they have been off for 2 weeks and will be primed for a big push onto a Bolton team that lost 3-0 to a weak League opponent in their last game 

Weekend Plays:

#1 Play - Sunderland Win +140 x 4U ($200)

Hedge bets:

Wolves correct score 1-0 x HALF U ($25) @ +750

Correct score tie 0-0 x HALF U @ +650

Correct score tie 1-1 x HALF U @+500 

Would be happy to scrape out +$205 profit after hedges laid as protection....

Note: Wolves have not won at Sunderland since 1993 and I think a 1-0 fluke late score protects my investment enough.....I would bet UNDER but its +53 for Under 2.5 goals

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Play #2 - Liverpool Halftime winning/fulltime winning +150 x 1U

-this game feels like a curb stomp with ManU's defensive and road woes and Liverpool pissed off after 2 losses and some big UCL matches coming up

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Play#3/#Play 4  - Bayern Munich Halftime/fulltime winning +86 x 1U

-Over 3.5 x 2U @+83 

-recent years have produced the occasional Under 3.5 but I feel this year's Dortmund team can win and score on the road so I think they will get 1 goal and might get two......BM has been averaging over 4 goals per game and I don't see them sitting back vs their arch rival and with the thirst they have to pummel their forever closest foe year after year....I have watched a few of these going back to Schweinsteiger's days at midfield and those matches were epic.....now BM is that much more goal hungry!

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Play #5 - Flamengo/Palmieras Over 2.5 x 1U @+135 

- Flamengo had almost 10 days off after a long spell of at least 3 months playing every 2-3 days in league and other competitions

-Palmeiras similarly but not quite as bad

-Palmeiras I can count on for 1-2 goals on the road and they have been filling the net recently and Flamengo at home I can count on 1-3 goals so this seems like a 2-2, 2-1 final score...maybe higher 

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Play #6 - Darmstadt Bundesliga 2 to win +80 x 3U .....playing the weakest team in the league by far and Darmstadt has a solid home record.....just in case this is a fix for a tie .... HALF U tie parlay @ +260 with Friday Over 2.5 game PrMunster and their opponent who @+66 ....both these two teams are some of the highest scorers in the league and it will be an open game ....this parlay for $25 pays just under +500 

Next up....will provide some league pattern stats soon....but these are my plays of the weekend ....Huddersfield  is about to cover the +140 hopefully here in the last 5 minutes of play 

Holy man.... what crap.... BOLTON scores at +1 minute in extra time and then another goal 2 minutes later ....

Two Game Pattern Bet:  Huddersfield +140 x 2U (excellent value) 

Also: Half U correct score play just in case there is a tie 1-1 pays +550  

I think I have only seen this happen once before in the last 15-20 yrs.....on something I have bet and leading the whole game into extra time! 

Very unlucky but that's soccer

Followed...looked great until it didn't ... that's soccer for sure

Interesting how Bolton had only scored 3 goals in 6 away games but musters enough ooph in last few minutes to score 2 goals...haha....fishy for sure but nothing you can do about it

Lets get the next one

more to come...

Troyes - France 2 x 2U  +75

-battling for top 5 positions in French 2nd league with good home record battling a last place Bastia team 

-Troyes 14 goals scored /4 let in at home and #1 home record

-Bastia with 0 goals/ 5 let in on the road and dead last in road record with 2 ties/3 losses

A chance to claw back some of my lost heartbreaking loss cash with Bolton scoring in the 3rd and 5th minute of extra time to wipe me out yesterday after a cashout was looking like 99% sure with Win/Tie played.....

Troyes - France 2 x 2U  +75  

1-1 This week so far but down $75

6 more plays coming up....see post #61

So, how do teams do after 2 games of a certain pattern? This is what I uncovered over 11 leagues inputting every result:

After 2 Wins in a row:

47.5% likely to win the next game (94/198 instances)

-highest rates = Spain 13/21 (61.9%)  Portugal 1 > 16/26  (61.5%) 

-lowest rate = Premier League 4 /12 (33%)

TIE RATE after 2 wins = 21.2% << I know lots of people play ties and its one of the lowest result rates in the past decade or so and not an effective bet unless you bet CORRECT SCORE at higher odds!

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After 2 Losses in a row:

38.6% will lose the next game with: 66/171 instances   

Highest continued loss rate = Germany 2  > 12/18 (66.7%) and Turkey Super 6/13 = 45%

Lowest = Portugal and France 1 both @ 5/16 continue losing

TIE RATE after 2 losses = 27.8% << much better  > Lowest = Germany 2  > 1/18 

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After 2 Ties in a row : 

51% of teams will lose the next one!  32/63 instances

Highest = Portugal  8/9 instances  and  League 1 = 8 /15

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Teams in play this weekend to watch for these trends continue:

Sevilla > 2 wins in a row

Real Betis > 2 wins in a row

Alverca > 2 wins in a row

Nacional > 2 wins in a row 

Antalyaspor > 2 losses in a row

Basakashir > 2 losses in a row

Fortuna Dusseldorf > 2 losses in a row 

Port Vale (League 1) > 2 ties in a row > continue tie?

Will have more patterns after 2 different results in the next while.......chew on these for now

1-1 this week and Summary of Upcoming Plays this weekend: - see post #61 for reasons

#1 Play - Sunderland Win +140 x 4U ($200)

Hedge bets:

Wolves correct score 1-0 x HALF U ($25) @ +750

Correct score tie 0-0 x HALF U @ +650

Correct score tie 1-1 x HALF U @+500

Play #2 - Liverpool Halftime winning/fulltime winning +150 x 1U

Play#3/#Play 4  - Bayern Munich Halftime/fulltime winning +86 x 1U

-Over 3.5 x 2U @+83 

Play #5 - Flamengo/Palmieras Over 2.5 x 1U @+135 

Play #6 - Darmstadt Bundesliga 2 to win +80 x 3U

UCL Overs (2.5 and some 3.5) hit at a high % before UCL games.....we have some Premier League and some other leagues in games today. Premier L. has the highest % of OVERs

Today:

Newcastle - plays Tuesday > OVER 2.5

Barcelona - plays Tuesday >  OVER 2.5 / NOT 3.5

PSV - same > I expect this one to be 5 or more goals...it would have been play #7

Bay Leverk > Tuesday > Over 2.5/Over 3.5  (7 goals!)

PSG > same > ! Over 2.5/3.5  (6 goals on Friday)

Arsenal > same

A.Madrid > same  

Villareal > same 

Man City > same > went UNDER 2.5  

Dortmund > same 

Note: I cannot get a read on Italy Serie A this year ....maybe include later

Also: I tend NOT to play UCL overs across the board if games are after International play..... I find results are too inconsistent but I do like doing OVERS in League games AFTER UCL and will this coming weekend..

First result back of PICK6 this weekend:

#1 Play - Sunderland Win +140 x 4U ($200)   > profit +$280

Hedge bets:  

Wolves correct score 1-0 x HALF U ($25) @ +750

Correct score tie 0-0 x HALF U @ +650

Correct score tie 1-1 x HALF U @+500

-negative $75 on hedge bets

Other interesting two game to 3rd game result patterns of note:

When a team loses/ties the first 2, next highest result = loss in 3rd game of pattern (44.6%)

-League 1 = 63.2% Loss rate next game!

-Spain = 53 % Loss rate

-France 2 = 45% Win rate 

When a team loses/wins the first 2, next highest result = loss in 3rd game of pattern (48.6%)

-Spain = 63.2 % Loss rate next game!

-Dutch = 58.9 % Loss rate

-Bundes 2 = 57.1% Loss rat5

When a team Wins/ties the first 2, next highest result = WIN  in 3rd game of pattern (45.3%)

-Dutch Erv = 7/8  instances

-Bundesliga 2 = 4/6 instances

-Spain  = 10 /14 

-Portugal  = 8 /14

*** Turkey Super = 0 of 10 instances, they DO NOT win the after a win/tie pattern

-Premier L > lowest = only 3 of 11 instances 

Didn't I say after International Play teams play a little funky? 

Liverpool losing now to ManU....

Darmstadt top 4 team going to play  absolute abysmal bottom team and they decide to give them a bone by playing a passenger game to allow for a tie....they even redcarded themselves to seal the deal ...

Have to remember to be cautious and play UNDER as well on the bottom teams playing a top 5 team..... just do a couple correct score tie plays at high odds and so as a result, I flushed $150 down the toilet

So, that is a wrap on this late week's plays..... pretty good results but disappointed in a couple of plays (so close!)

#1 Play - Sunderland Win +140 x 4U ($200)  > book $280 profit Data play

Hedge bets:

Wolves correct score 1-0 x HALF U ($25) @ +750

Correct score tie 0-0 x HALF U @ +650

Correct score tie 1-1 x HALF U @+500       >>> book -$75 loss exotic play

Play #2 - Liverpool Halftime winning/fulltime winning +150 x 1U    >> book -$50 loss exotic play

Play#3/#Play 4  - Bayern Munich Halftime/fulltime winning +86 x 1U  >> made $43 profit exotic play

-Over 3.5 x 2U @+83  >>> book -$100 loss Data play

Play #5 - Flamengo/Palmieras Over 2.5 x 1U @+135  >> made $88 profit Data Play  (3-1 score right now...should have pressed!)

Play #6 - Darmstadt Bundesliga 2 to win +80 x 3U  >>  book -$150 loss Data Play

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3-3 on the week for DATA Plays ( +$104 gain = +2.02 U)

-$107 on exotic plays 

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Season stats:

UCL OVERS account = $+223  

Premier League OVERS account = $+140

DATA Plays ( +$104 gain = +2.02 U)

-$107 on exotic plays 

.....working on matchups for UCL games and using patterns from my data to predict some good angles in other league games this week....stay tuned

UCL OVERS today:

Arsenal OV 2.5 +90 x 1U

Bay Lever OV 2.5  +54 x 2U and Ov 3.5 +130 x Half U

Copenhagen Ov 2.5 +80 x 3U 

hedge bet > correct score 1 - 1  @+600 x HALF U 

hedge bet > correct score 1 - 2 Dortmund @ +750 x HALF U

hedge bet > correct score 2 - 2 tie  @ +1200 x $15 

Inter/Union Ov 2.5 x U +90 

 $425 on the line here....

Bay Lever OV 2.5  +54 x 2U  and Ov 3.5 +130 x Half U    < $212 returned back already and its only halftime 

More to come...