L2T Footy Theories /Plays

Parlay: 1 U > Man City/Tottenham Over 2.5 goals  @1.5 x Arsenal @1.28 > pays 1.92   << Man City embarrassing or is Tottenham the real deal this year?? GRINDING  on my last few days 

I have PSV over and win by -2.5 on parlays right now with Entrich Frankfurt  and another with Sporting -1.5 ..... Sporting down 1-0 at half but Nacional got red carded just before half so I expect to see 3-4 goals by Sporting in second half...2 for sure

On Deck:

Saturday

 Brazil A:

Cruzeiro Win halftime/fulltime +175 x  1 U  >> going to double this bet likely so long as Thursday-Friday is not a complete wipeout

Cruzeiro halftime/Draw fulltime +1400 x $10

Sunday: 

Early > 1. Jeonbuk (South Korea K-League)  win +135 x 1U 

2. Ajax both teams to Score - NO > 1U  pays 1.9

Ha!!

Just as I was checking Halftime tie/Fulltime Cruzerio bet in game ....paying 3.5  ....and mulling playing it 19 minutes in, CRUZEIRO just scored.

Zero shots attempted by Internaccional so far....

$20 halftime tie/fulltime Cruz  +225

$10 Cruz Win half/full - Cruz  +400

Got back $65 from $90 bet on Cruzeiro...they were all over them but let in a soft goal

The ML wasn't good enough for me in this instance so went for better payout and lost a bit of cash....

Bit of a rough week once I got above /into the profit ..... its a grind but you have to stick to principles. Pretty soon I will have enough actual specific data as I am charting on a spreadsheet 11 leagues.... been mostly relying on leagues going for 1-4 months now through summer

0nly bet I got in the last few days or so ... Ajax both teams to Score - NO > 1U  pays 1.9 

Tale of the tape after a brutal second half of the week:

-$1016 returned on $1120 bet according to my records (-$104 after 1 week)

RECORD: (note > count parlay sides in totals and parlays on their own)

Win sides = 9 - 9

Ties = 2 - 2

Overs = 2 - 3

Unders = 4 - 3

No to Both Score = 1 - 0

Parlays  2 - 13

Halftime/fulltime = 1 - 6

Note: - the two categories above for exotic records are bad because tougher but much better payouts in multiples

.......working on my data and might have a comment or two later on what I am uncovering......plus some thoughts or bets for the first few days this week

I have some plays lined up for tomorrow and the week.....

Monday:

Parlay>

Brazil A: Flamengo to score 1-3 goals themselves pays 1.5  with   Avai (Brazil Series B) 1.66 x 2 U > pays 2.5

$20 Parlay: tie Avai @3.6 with Flamengo to score 1-3 goals  @1.5

$20 Parlay Avai win 1.66 with Flamengo win 1.22 > 

$10 Parlay Avai win 1.66 with Flamengo Under 2.5 (2.07) with Over 2.5 Sarpsberg (Norway) @1.44 

Some notes on both: - Avai has scored 17 goals/5 allowed at home and on fire lately

- Their opponent has only scored 5 goals on the road for over 10 games

-Flamengo has had 5 days off....its been a while and when they have an extra day or three, they tend to play defensive possession and pass their way to a goal or by set piece....their home goals are 23 scored/2 allowed ...Vitoria does not score much on the road and Flamengo is so organized that they will be frustrated

Parlay $20 each:

Flamengo Under 2.5 @2.07 with FC Copenhagen win @1.75 in Euro soccer

Flamengo to score 2-3 goals only @2.00 with FC Copenhagen win 1.75 

I have some plays to suggest for Euro but going to wait....lets see what happens tomorrow

Oh oh.... 2 - 0 Flamengo quickly !

Going to wait for spots (got beat up tonight)....betting for recreation and things going array. Back when I find a strong game. I really like Copenhagen coming up at home in Euro soccer....GL

ITS OUR TIME TO PROFIT OFF of EURO SOCCER TIME!

I spent a lot of time breaking down and recording every match of the Premier League for last year. I CORRELATED their performances before UCL, EL and Conference League competitions and after which I will comment on in the next post.

What I uncovered is gold I think and feel free to try it out. I will most certainly be betting every game they play > BEFORE any Euro competition based on the following results (I did not play before Euro league games starting this week. I will next week!):

Rule #1 - 

Play OVER 2.5 goals in every game and also OVER 3.5 as well before an CHAMPIONS LEAGUE match (Sat or Sunday game before)

- results speak for themselves 

- 4 CL teams last year 

- BEFORE UCL games, they went 24 - 10 x OVER 2.5 goals  (70.6%) << must play every game to get benefit

RULE #2

- of the 24 games between four teams that went OVER 2.5 > 16 of 24 hit 4 goals or more (66.7%)

- play alternative goals 4 or better on all games additionally because it will boost your bet income << must play every game

UCL TEAMs this year = Man City, Chelsea, Newcastle, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham

Last weekend OVERS = 4 - 2  Over 2.5 goals (1 of 6 hit 4 goals)

***Next summer I will cover La Liga Spanish Football  ...just too busy with MLB and NCAAF tracking as well, then NCAAB soon!

RULE #3 

If you prefer playing SIDES, be comfortable playing these BETS on matches the game before UCL games like have started today

4 Team WIN rate last season  = 17 of 34 games  = 50%

4 Team TIE rate last season = 11 of 34 games = 32 %

4 Team Loss rate last season = 6 of 34 games only  = roughly 18%

1st weekend before UCL went:  5 wins - 0 losses - 1 tie

Will try this strategy on every game the weekend of Sept 27th/28th gams  (every OVERs including 4 goal bets  and play win/tie on some matches) 

....will discuss what happens after UCL games in my next post 

So what do the results indicate after a Premier League team has played a Champions League game?

Next game after results (2024):

-ties happen on an uptick

-losses are on a slight uptick

RECORD for 4 Teams = 19 wins - 8 losses - 13 ties 

Win rate = 47%

Loss rate = 20%

Tie rate = 33%

OVERS /4 goal games > similar rate as before

Over 2.5 goals =  24 - 16 

Overs with 4 goals = 16 of 24 games that went Ov 2.5 goals 

Note: *** most Champions League games are scheduled such that team has 4 days to recover to next League game unlike the Europa or Conference Leagues which is 3 days to next match to recover from fatigue/travel if so***

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Europa and Conference League teams - Man U, Tottenham and Chelsea last year 

*** much poorer record before Europa/CL games 

7 - 8 - 5 ties  BEFORE a match 

Overs = 13 - 8

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*** record after with only 3 days rest 

10 - 10 - 7 ties 

Overs = 20 - 10 OVER << higher rate on less rest 

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FINAL QUESTION: - how did the Top 6+ teams fare after a loss of any game throughout the season?

NEXT GAME RESULTS:

4 Champions League Teams (after a loss on any game in home league schedule)

=  only 3 wins - 8 losses (losing streaks normal) - 6 ties 

Longest losing streaks:

Liverpool = 1 game

Arsenal = 1 game

Man C = 4 games

Aston V = 2 games (4x)

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3 Europa/CL Teams After any loss in League:

Record = 10 - 25 - 8  

Consider some of these angles when betting your Premier League around Europe extra games.....

- no Europa/CL games this week

- 6 Champ games 

- I suggest starting tapping these angles AFTER the weekend of 27th-28th games 

Soccer tomorrow:

League 1 Stevanage ML 1U @ 1.72

Parlay  > Half U > Stevange  Under 2.5 with Villareal ML pays around +150

Parlay > Half U > Under 2.5 Bologna with Botafogo ML ( Brazil Serie A )  pays over +150

Just some action before next weekend when I pounce on every OVER games on Sept 27th/28th on all UCL competitors in the Premier league....selectively, I will be taking WIN/TIE bets on some too

By the way...forgot to mention why I love them ML....BOTAFOGO 

-Athletico Min. has to play a second leg of their Copa series in a few days after their game ....Botafogo does not as they are done and now they want to just focus on completing a strong finish and challenge for the Top 3 positions the rest of the way. 

- AM is terrible on the road and don't score much 

-Bota is strong at home, will be less stressed and hungry to now and push for placing without any distractions

-AM can win at home in their Copa match so they may rest some key players I'm thinking 

If I don't get the front end of the parlay mentioned in previous post, I will be banging Botaf for 1-2 Units for sure

Botafogo ML 1.7 x 2U

- I just got unlucky penalty in last minute to send Bologna OVER..... 

- I loved this game anyway for stated reasons posted above 

League 1 Stevanage ML 1U @ 1.72  

Parlay  > Half U > Stevange  Under 2.5 with Villareal ML pays around +150  

Parlay > Half U > Under 2.5 Bologna with Botafogo ML ( Brazil Serie A )  pays over +150  

Botafogo ML 1.7 x 2U  << this represents my gravy now if I can hit it

- I just got unlucky penalty in last minute to send Bologna OVER..... 

- I loved this game anyway for stated reasons posted above 

Red card for Botafogo ...they are up 1 - 0 with 1/3 of game to go

3 out of 4 teams I picked got red carded today 

Botafogo ML 1.7 x 2U  

By the way..... my Champions League OVERS AFTER and BEFORE an event would have hit  7 of 8 teams today....only Barcelona did not go OVER 2.5 goals. Yamal is out for them!

only 2 of 8 teams got 4 goals in their game

I will be playing this angle before the next set of games after NEXT WEEKEND and also playing OVERS after that game 

Football Theory #1 set to shine today and tomorrow: - UCL teams in Premier League and many others tend to go OVER 2.5 and many go OVER 4 goals in matches BEFORE an upcoming UCL game and AFTER 

What I laid out in post #35 in this thread: " 1st weekend before UCL went:  5 wins - 0 losses - 1 tie "

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All Premier League UCL teams have 1U plays on them OVER 2.5/except Man City

Chelsea +65

Liverpool +80

Man City  +115

Tottenham  +72

Ars/Newc  +120

No  Over 4 goals this time....I will as the season schedule gets busier 

This weekend, I did not go Over in other leagues games but might tomorow...

Will keep track....nice start to my Theory throughout the season based only on Premier League/keep separate record for other leagues together. So far this weekend:

All Premier League UCL teams have 1U plays on them OVER 2.5/except Man City

Chelsea +65   

Liverpool +80  

Man City  +115  

(OVER 3.5 went 2- 1 if I would have played)

Tottenham  +72  Sunday

Ars/Newc  +120  Sunday 

+127 Profit so far .... (-100 in bets still waiting)

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What I laid out in post #35 in this thread: " 1st weekend before UCL went:  5 wins - 0 losses 

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Now after Week #2 OVERALL (will update after tomorrow). Will keep separate record for AFTER games :

during second weekend before UCL went:  8 wins - 0 losses 

Other Top Euro league UCL teams (Excluding Italy) playing 0ver 2.5 + Over 3.5 Today:

Monaco  Over  (4 goals)

Dortmund Under

Bayer Lev. Under

Frankfurt  Ov

Ajax Ov

A.Madrid/Real M both UCL = Ov  (7 goals!)

Villareal/Athletic both UCL = 

Sporting

PSV

PSG

Tottenham

Sunday:

Barcelona

Already played:

Marseille (Fri) Over

BayernM (Fri) Over 3.5

Benefica (Fri) Over

Galatasaray (Fri) Under 

All Leagues including PL = 10 - 3 OVER 2.5 goals so far ....

Tottenham plays today. I've been enjoying this thread, and this has also been a bit of a theory since the old Specimen days I think. I know he used to like to bet a lot of Dogs sandwiching the UCLs too.

Love the info 

Thanks! 

Not sure who Speciman is but I notice soccer totals in the last 5 yrs are OVER a lot and so I have been seeing the UCL pattern and thought I would track it this year and see how much money I could make and decide therefore next year, to up by bets to $200 per game. I have a betting roll that has been growing for many seasons that I distribute to the various leagues I play.....horses, NCAAB, MLB, NCAAF .....and now soccer ....but still no NHL or NBA edges that I can see

By the way, I will have some more soon concerning 11 leagues I am following for patterns .... I just need enough data to find the trends I see are well over 50% to try some ....have to input a bunch over the last 10 days or so therefore, next week I might post my best patterns from:

Bundesliga, Bundes2, France1/2, Spain1, Italy1, PremierL, League One, Turkey1, Eridivisie, Portugal 1

@Last2thirst

 He was a Legend poster in these parts of the Soccer forum for a long time, but haven't seen him around last couple of years. Very knowledgeable and insightful posts and some great wins/discussions.

Will be looking out for more of your plays as you said! 

A check of Division games last year in the UCL showed that week 2 of those roads had more OVERs than Unders

Over 2.5 goals went 10 - 6 

Over 3.5 goals happened 7x 

Goals MATTER in the division round !!

With that in mind, my plays of the day for Over 2.5:

Bodo pays 1.7 x 2U 

-very high scoring team in their domestic league with a lot of 4+ goal games and they have nothing to lose but to just be themselves and say damn with playing defense.....

Marseille pays 1.62 x 1U

- this team is dominating right now and I expect a good game from Ajax who I am a little puzzled with this year ....they are giving up more goals and traditionally when on the road, they have higher totals in games vs home

Over 3.5 goals Plays:

Barcelona/PSG 1.95 x 2 Units

-I will be shocked if PSG does not score and I know Barcelona will put on a show ....this will end likely 3-1/3-2

Monaco/Man City +115 x 1 Units

-Monaco flat out scores at home and I expect 1-2 from Man City 

A.Madrid/Frankfurt +105 x 3 Units 

-frankly put, Frankfurt doesn't care about defense and just wants to outscore you....lots of 5 goal games and the last one had 10 goals 

These are my plays over 2 days .... $450 on the line 

My UCL TOTAL PLAYS:  -BET365 has already credit my account with early payout when achieved 

Over 2.5 goals

Bodo pays 1.7 x 2U   > returns $170 

Marseille pays 1.62 x 1U  > returns $81 

Over 3.5 goals Plays:

Barcelona/PSG 1.95 x 2 Units  TBD

Monaco/Man City +115 x 1 Units  TBD

A.Madrid/Frankfurt +105 x 3 Units   > returns $315 

These are my plays over 2 days .... $450 on the line  > $566 return already 

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UCL OVERS account = $+116  w/ 2 open 'free bets' for tomorrow

Premier League OVERS account = $+140

Keep up the good work!