L2T Footy Theories /Plays

First time ever creating a thread despite being a long time bettor using plays in parlays. This year, I think I will be doing quite a few straight bets because I have the time to input on spreadsheets every league that I like betting and inputting

AI means nothing to me as a sports bettor....put in the work, find the patterns, you get rewarded with > 55% most seasons in most sports. I have bet horses for over 40 yrs but exclusively standardbreds and pick5's and Doubles mostly...the odd superfecta

or longshot triactor

1 U in this thread = $50

HALF U plays will appear and $10-20 parlays once in a while...

I bet but don't spreadsheet: Brazil A/B, Colombia, South Korea,Spain2,Italy2, most competitions like Europa,CL, etc, Sweden, Norway, MLS, USL, Neth2, Mexico1

Spreadsheet these: Bundesliga, Germany2, France2, Ervidesie, Spain1, Italy1, France1, Premier L, League 1, Portugal, Turkey, 

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Uncovered a pattern for teams in Europe competitions .....will play that when they precede or follow one of those games

- I also have holiday angles on tendencies and end of season last 6wks + how to play runaway division champs after February 

- there is something else I am sure I will find by inputting all of those divisions 

BETS TO COME SOON...

Cheers 

I use BET365! Starting with $3000+ with my general account that I use for spot plays in NHL/NBA,GOLF occasionally and now footie

-also have a large sport season rotation with $10K+ and a horse account that I rotate out wins once I get to $2000 gains ...that money comes into general or a laggard account if I have 2 SS seasons going like NCAAF/NCAAB when they overlap in  Nov....I won't use SS for footie because I am just starting to go intensive...maybe next yr

-one thing I have learned....keep 3 -4 accounts and be disciplined with how much you use every year or make adjustments AFTER the season

MLS

Value Play: Red Bulls win +180 x HALF U 

-this just played the other day and NYB coughed up lead in last 3rd of game

PARLAY $20: OVER 2.5 +74  with Portland OV 2.5 

$10 Parlay each of the above OVER with Dallas/Austin tie at +290 (COST =$20)

BRAZIL A: 

Vitoria win x 1U  +75

Parlay $20 > Fluminese ML +70 with Toluca (Mexi) +72

BRAZIL B:

Remo Braz B. +80 x 1U

Colombia A 

$10 Halftime/Fulltime bet - TIE/Llaneros +700

$10 Halftime/Fulltime bet - LLaneros/TIE  +1700

Llaneros win  x HALF U _250 

$230 allocated for results later.......

SPLAT!! Juventude don't score on the road but do vs Vitoria...pathetic. Late penalty.

Saturday can be tricky ....evidence is there once again but we gave it a shot.

RED BULL last shot....

Got back $138 of $230

-$92 start 

Like I said, Saturday footie is less sure than most days....faves tend not to win....had the right idea

-hit 1 parlay including a longer odds

-hit 1 underdog win

Sunday - like a lot of plays but cutting back:

Series B:

Chapocoense +80 ML x HALF U

Series A: - half U plays 

Flamengo +105 ML

Palmieras +150 ML > one of the few top teams who is clearly better on the road than home kinda like Atlanta in Italy Liga for last 3 yrs+

Colombia A: - half U  plays

UNDER 1.5  +138  Tolima > both teams startiing the season atypically from last year but you go with it until shown otherwise since both sides filled the net but went deep into their winter playoffs recently....give them time to get in rhythm but not yet

Tie +190

Cashed Back $296 of $355 bet over first two days (Profit today)....this will improve. I will be selective more through week most likely with less games on tap....except on Europe competitions which I think we have this week. I am very selective with those...

Record: (I split parlays up since a loss kills them)

Win sides = 5 - 4

Ties = 1 - 1

Unders = 0 - 1

Overs = 1 - 1

Parlays = 1 - 3

halftime bets = 0 - 2

One game playing Monday:

Colombia A:

Junior +100 to win x 1U

-Buca and Junior know each other well from recent playoffs and Junior gets the best of them in most instances....Junior with 2 wins at home already scoring 6 / 1 allowed....very organized and could answer with a go ahead goal easily if Buca sneaks in a tying goal....I think 2-0 / 2-1 game

Strong Lean > Brazil A game > Mirassol/Cruzeiro TIE .....think its an OVER  potentially which pays  +130 OVER 2.5 goals...both teams are strong home vs road and Cruzeiro can be dominating but faltering a little and leaking goals....I think ...Mir will score first and then Cruz ties it

Tuesday:

League 1:

Mansfield/Blackpool Over 2.5 x 1U

-Blackpool has avg. 5 goals per game so far and Mansfield 3 per  (Combined they are 8 per ....hitting 3 goals should NOT be a problem here)

strong lean Barnsley win @ Peterborough who have scored 1 goal in 3 games and Barnsley with 6

-may confirm on that day

Wednesday

CL -Qualifying:

Benefica Win (no stake yet and will probably hit his for 2U with a $10-20 correct score bet of 1-1 or 0-0...still evaluating  > very strong lean (they beat Nice on the road which is hard to do in their home building)

-Fenerbace meh.... don't think they can challenge Galatasaray and I rate Benefica higher than Gala

Bodo-Glimt > had fun with this very offensive team in the summer...they went over constantly in key games and do not stop scoring ....really like the OVER 3.5 but have to dig on Sturm's team this year....Austria soccer has become offensive 

-have to look at Bodo's next opponent ...if rival, I might just take the to win ...because I can see a 2-0 or 2-1, possibly 3-0 score but if Sturm scores early, this is going OVER 

BASEL win is how I am leaning > Copenhagen almost  never lose at home with similar foe but on road they rarely score vs good teams

Halftime/Fulltime bet likely for Bolton-Reading or Correct Score..... 2-0 Bolton

These are my leans for Wed which looks like a moneymaking card .....will narrow and 1 play press or take 3-5 plays...not sure 

Yes....TAKE Flamengo win small and likely pound UNDER 2.5 vs Internaccional as they play the 3rd game vs each other in 10 days.....Copa Lib game

I hate this N.America League Cup....throw a dart on who wants to win because its high scoring and a lot of upsets....no idea...stay away 

Gotta watch the BET365 line on Mir/Cruz Brazil A game now.....slight lean to Cruz overnight and OVER price has come down a touch...I still like the TIE but might do a parlay before 1pm with a Swedish soccer team and this game OVER, then play the TIE later.

BET365 is notorious for tipping what are perceived to be tight games initially to one in the last 24 hrs and game results more than often, follow the betting

My gut on Cruzeiro is, they will win or tie tonight as the betting and motivation is such after doing some reading...

Parlay: Over 2.5 goals and Win parlay x $20 pays very well > returns $107

TIE: x 1U = returns $162 

$70 Invested > I like that as my TIE is still in and very possible but Cruzerio 2-1 is also....this should not be a 1-0 win for either team, not the way Cruzeiro plays and looked ahead to next match > 4 days off vs a team that will have 3 days off only and playing Flamengo tomorrow....watch for Cruzeiro to go for it and try to get their next game too vs a softened team

Also have Junior Tolima +100 x 1U hanging bet  playing as we speak 0 - 0 score.....

1-0 Cruzeiro....5 min mark ...I'd say they are motivated 

Junior +100 to win x 1U  

Parlay: Over 2.5 goals and Win parlay x $20 pays very well > returns $107 

TIE +225: x 1U = returns $162   

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Cashed Back $558 of $475 bet over first 3 days (Profit reached) 

Record: (I split parlays up since a loss kills them)

Win sides = 6 - 4

Ties = 2 - 1

Unders = 0 - 1

Overs = 1 - 1

Parlays = 1 - 4

halftime bets = 0 - 2

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Tuesday:

League 1:

Mansfield/Blackpool Over 2.5 x 1U

-Blackpool has avg. 5 goals per game so far and Mansfield 3 per  (Combined they are 8 per ....hitting 3 goals should NOT be a problem here)

Barnsley win @ Peterborough x HALF U @ +120 

Im following. Good work 

Be selective !!! Ok? 

I know how to find good plays but they don't always sing .....my goal this year is charting everything (mostly) that I follow for patterns and have 8 out of 11 leagues done and should be ready by this week....

Pattern %'s to come with numbers. I just bet now looking ahead to next games and knowing home and road tendencies but soon to add another layer of pattern numbers.....its sports, you try to hit the higher situational %'s for gains, not faves at low payouts

GL if you are following 'some' plays 

my plays today:

Flamengo TIE x 1U +188

Bodo  OVER 3.5 +100 x 1U > see a 2-2, 3-1, 4-2 type of game coming and S.Graz is capable of hanging with them BUT Bodo scores endlessly at home 

Basel UNDER 2.5 x 1U  (1.84)

Parlays:$10 except BODO PLAY $15

Basel win +150 x Flamengo win +138

Bael win +150 x Bodo win 1.47

Baeel win +150 x Benefica WIn +145

Bael win x Benefica tie +240

Flamengo win with Bolton  win halftime/fulltime +130

Flamengo win with Bolton under 2.5 +135

semi biggie day....in for about $225 .....might play Independence in Copal Lib tonight .....they were fave to win 1st leg but got red card and lost so I see a spot to play them -1.5 goals or win half and fulltime and OVER 2.5

Just one explanation.....since I now have time. 

Flamengo up 1-0 in 2 game series....IF Inter scores, they will go for a tie .....if Inter does not score first half, no reason for them to press the button and try to score since they have the advantage so 0-0 tie is strongly possible......if this goes to extra time or shootout, anything can happen

TIE is best due to advantage. Also, Flamengo does not give up goals much at home but on the road, yes.....I can see 1-1 tie or 0-0 ......what happens if Flamengo scores first, I doubt they play an open game but just might score again from a counter attack as they are known to once they get  a 1 goal lead 

BASEL win climbing odds....better to use in parlay and spend $50 on an UNDER knowing Copenhagen tend to be goal shy on road

Bolton....they are kind of funny when they play a weak team so 0-0 tie is possible or a 1-1 tie... 1-0 win likely if motivated...and 2-0 likely too but cannot count on it so if they do score, it will be early and think it will lead to halftime win/full time win result

Bodo OV >> Early payout triggered > return $92 back 

Accounts after last night stands now at $705 returned from $755 bet correction > today total bets this afternoon = $215)

Plenty of time to book some more cash to push my account into a nice profit zone....sorry for the late confirmations on plays....my computer is still at the repair shop and my betting and typing is  not so fast on this other device

Copa Sudamerica

Independente win / both teams to score 4.75 x HALF U (<< BEST way to play over 2.5 in my opinion)

Independence halftime/fulltime +160 x 1U 

Draw halftime/Independence full time +300 x $20

$95 bet on this game 

ACCOUNT now has $165 in hanging bets tonight  >  $797 returned / Account outlays = $850 this week

Account could look vastly different into the profit tonight .....lets give it a shot

SPECTATOR RIOTS!!! HALTED Independence game 

I've seen a few being Canadian and some fights in the crowd when playoffs came....between rival fans from different towns......once my dad was involved so I felt I needed to since my dad had set the example.....we don't need guns in Canada, we get our anger out in bar, parking lot or arenas....... fun stuff after a few 

Bets on Independente  are null and void

Just booked some more cash Into my account that now stands at $856 returned on $755 bet according to my records and account at $3101 now

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RECORD: (note > count parlay sides in totals and parlays on their own)

Win sides = 8 - 5

Ties = 2 - 2

Overs = 2 - 2

Unders = 2 - 1

Parlays  2 - 9

Halftime/fulltime = 0 - 3

Upcoming PLAYS-Thurs /Friday

 Parlay: 

Thurs:

1U > Under 2.5 Lanus (Copa Sudamerica) 1.5 x Strasbourg win 1.65 > pays > 2.48

Thurs/Fri mix:

$20  Ludogorets (Europa) UNDER 2.5 @1.7 x KFUM (Norway) Under 2.5 @ 1.84 pays >3.12

$30  Paok Under 2.5 @1.65 x Under  with KFUM win 1.6 > pays 2.64 

Friday:

KFUM win by -1 Handicap +175 x HALF U

Saturday:

Brazil A:

Cruzeiro Win halftime/fulltime +175 x  1 U  >> going to double this bet likely so long as Thursday-Friday is not a complete wipeout

Cruzeiro halftime/Draw fulltime +1400 x $10

-Internaccional got beat up by Flamengo 2-0 tonight and have been playing a lot of soccer lately 2-3 games per week for a while and not winning most of those....its draining and they play a team that can score a lot at home that went through their own heavy period last month and in the first week of August and sputtered since last weekend where they won again after some rest.....another week of rest and they will be pounding on Inter ....CRuzeiro is very offensive in the first half of a game

Might have some more Saturday but I am going with teams I have followed for a while and waiting until I get data on teams + I have a theory on how to play good teams before and after a Champions League game and before ......will wait for those situations to arise

More Saturday- Sunday Plays:

Parlay: 1 U > Man City/Tottenham Over 2.5 goals @1.5 x Arsenal @1.28 > pays 1.92 

Sunday: 

Ajax both teams to Score - NO > 1U  pays 1.9

Shutout Thursday and Friday (-$125) ....it happens in Soccer!

My account now stands at $856 returned on $880 bet (-$24)

I have a play for overnight Saturday: (early Sunday morning)

Jeonbuk is one of the best teams in S. Korea this year but they got embarrassed in their last game vs Gimcheon by a score of 6 - 2 @ home !!

- despite this, they have scored over 20 goals on the road and only allowed 6 ....they come out with fire vs a team at home that is ok but not a team like they are...

Jeonbuk win +135 x 1U

I like my card for the weekend....might have something else up my sleeve, but realize this is a marathon, not a sprint 

Some impressions/Leans on some games tomorrow/Sunday: - not official plays

1. Entrich Frankfurt (Bundesliga) - they could score at will last year and now they picked up a star scorer from last year who blends well with them in preseason.....I think they romp over Werder Bremen

-they always start hot with a good team and scoring lots of goals

2. Mainz-Cologne  - B2 team also picked up some good players/scorers and were impressive in preseason....Mainz has a strong blend of talent > LIKE THE OVER 2.5 / lean 2-2 tie in a cracker of a game

3. Fortaleza (Brazil A) - +125 is a nice price for a home team that is decent playing a poor road team who is struggling a bit in the past 30 days or so after a good start

4. Nice little parlay that is paying +140 is >> AJAX win with PSV win (no chance of these two losing at home vs bottom teams with no competitions on their mind) with Sporting (Portugal) to win 1st half/fulltime