L2T Footy Theories /Plays

First time ever creating a thread despite being a long time bettor using plays in parlays. This year, I think I will be doing quite a few straight bets because I have the time to input on spreadsheets every league that I like betting and inputting

AI means nothing to me as a sports bettor....put in the work, find the patterns, you get rewarded with > 55% most seasons in most sports. I have bet horses for over 40 yrs but exclusively standardbreds and pick5's and Doubles mostly...the odd superfecta

or longshot triactor

1 U in this thread = $50

HALF U plays will appear and $10-20 parlays once in a while...

I bet but don't spreadsheet: Brazil A/B, Colombia, South Korea,Spain2,Italy2, most competitions like Europa,CL, etc, Sweden, Norway, MLS, USL, Neth2, Mexico1

Spreadsheet these: Bundesliga, Germany2, France2, Ervidesie, Spain1, Italy1, France1, Premier L, League 1, Portugal, Turkey, 

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Uncovered a pattern for teams in Europe competitions .....will play that when they precede or follow one of those games

- I also have holiday angles on tendencies and end of season last 6wks + how to play runaway division champs after February 

- there is something else I am sure I will find by inputting all of those divisions 

BETS TO COME SOON...

Cheers 

I use BET365! Starting with $3000+ with my general account that I use for spot plays in NHL/NBA,GOLF occasionally and now footie

-also have a large sport season rotation with $10K+ and a horse account that I rotate out wins once I get to $2000 gains ...that money comes into general or a laggard account if I have 2 SS seasons going like NCAAF/NCAAB when they overlap in  Nov....I won't use SS for footie because I am just starting to go intensive...maybe next yr

-one thing I have learned....keep 3 -4 accounts and be disciplined with how much you use every year or make adjustments AFTER the season

MLS

Value Play: Red Bulls win +180 x HALF U 

-this just played the other day and NYB coughed up lead in last 3rd of game

PARLAY $20: OVER 2.5 +74  with Portland OV 2.5 

$10 Parlay each of the above OVER with Dallas/Austin tie at +290 (COST =$20)

BRAZIL A: 

Vitoria win x 1U  +75

Parlay $20 > Fluminese ML +70 with Toluca (Mexi) +72

BRAZIL B:

Remo Braz B. +80 x 1U

Colombia A 

$10 Halftime/Fulltime bet - TIE/Llaneros +700

$10 Halftime/Fulltime bet - LLaneros/TIE  +1700

Llaneros win  x HALF U _250 

$230 allocated for results later.......

SPLAT!! Juventude don't score on the road but do vs Vitoria...pathetic. Late penalty.

Saturday can be tricky ....evidence is there once again but we gave it a shot.

RED BULL last shot....

Got back $138 of $230

-$92 start 

Like I said, Saturday footie is less sure than most days....faves tend not to win....had the right idea

-hit 1 parlay including a longer odds

-hit 1 underdog win

Sunday - like a lot of plays but cutting back:

Series B:

Chapocoense +80 ML x HALF U

Series A: - half U plays 

Flamengo +105 ML

Palmieras +150 ML > one of the few top teams who is clearly better on the road than home kinda like Atlanta in Italy Liga for last 3 yrs+

Colombia A: - half U  plays

UNDER 1.5  +138  Tolima > both teams startiing the season atypically from last year but you go with it until shown otherwise since both sides filled the net but went deep into their winter playoffs recently....give them time to get in rhythm but not yet

Tie +190

Cashed Back $296 of $355 bet over first two days (Profit today)....this will improve. I will be selective more through week most likely with less games on tap....except on Europe competitions which I think we have this week. I am very selective with those...

Record: (I split parlays up since a loss kills them)

Win sides = 5 - 4

Ties = 1 - 1

Unders = 0 - 1

Overs = 1 - 1

Parlays = 1 - 3

halftime bets = 0 - 2

One game playing Monday:

Colombia A:

Junior +100 to win x 1U

-Buca and Junior know each other well from recent playoffs and Junior gets the best of them in most instances....Junior with 2 wins at home already scoring 6 / 1 allowed....very organized and could answer with a go ahead goal easily if Buca sneaks in a tying goal....I think 2-0 / 2-1 game

Strong Lean > Brazil A game > Mirassol/Cruzeiro TIE .....think its an OVER  potentially which pays  +130 OVER 2.5 goals...both teams are strong home vs road and Cruzeiro can be dominating but faltering a little and leaking goals....I think ...Mir will score first and then Cruz ties it

Tuesday:

League 1:

Mansfield/Blackpool Over 2.5 x 1U

-Blackpool has avg. 5 goals per game so far and Mansfield 3 per  (Combined they are 8 per ....hitting 3 goals should NOT be a problem here)

strong lean Barnsley win @ Peterborough who have scored 1 goal in 3 games and Barnsley with 6

-may confirm on that day

Wednesday

CL -Qualifying:

Benefica Win (no stake yet and will probably hit his for 2U with a $10-20 correct score bet of 1-1 or 0-0...still evaluating  > very strong lean (they beat Nice on the road which is hard to do in their home building)

-Fenerbace meh.... don't think they can challenge Galatasaray and I rate Benefica higher than Gala

Bodo-Glimt > had fun with this very offensive team in the summer...they went over constantly in key games and do not stop scoring ....really like the OVER 3.5 but have to dig on Sturm's team this year....Austria soccer has become offensive 

-have to look at Bodo's next opponent ...if rival, I might just take the to win ...because I can see a 2-0 or 2-1, possibly 3-0 score but if Sturm scores early, this is going OVER 

BASEL win is how I am leaning > Copenhagen almost  never lose at home with similar foe but on road they rarely score vs good teams

Halftime/Fulltime bet likely for Bolton-Reading or Correct Score..... 2-0 Bolton

These are my leans for Wed which looks like a moneymaking card .....will narrow and 1 play press or take 3-5 plays...not sure 

Yes....TAKE Flamengo win small and likely pound UNDER 2.5 vs Internaccional as they play the 3rd game vs each other in 10 days.....Copa Lib game

I hate this N.America League Cup....throw a dart on who wants to win because its high scoring and a lot of upsets....no idea...stay away 

Gotta watch the BET365 line on Mir/Cruz Brazil A game now.....slight lean to Cruz overnight and OVER price has come down a touch...I still like the TIE but might do a parlay before 1pm with a Swedish soccer team and this game OVER, then play the TIE later.

BET365 is notorious for tipping what are perceived to be tight games initially to one in the last 24 hrs and game results more than often, follow the betting