Posted:
#51
20-17.....
New England at Kansas City (09/29/2014)
Posted:
#52
The best play is the total. The over in primetime games is 10-2 this season. Vegas will not let this trend continue. They set the number high, too high, the under is the play. I am playing a nickel on under and since I never take the away favorite on Monday night football, I am parlaying the chiefs +3 and under 47 for 100 to get back 260. I expect a 760 gain tonight.
Posted:
#54
Quote Originally Posted by TheQuadYeah:
I like all that, but I do hate going against "Satan's Bodyguard" at any time. But you know what? I think Belichick might have gone to the well one too many times and expected to create something out of nothing.
Primetime game, Monday night, in (arguably) the second rowdiest stadium in the league? You know what? I got some extra gravy from this weekend to sop up thanks to Romo last night, you're taking the points and buying the hook? I'm saying Chiefs S/U for +120
Good Luck All!
Lol I like the ml also but I can see brady coming back late and winning by 1 or 2 points...
I'm actually buying the line up to 4
And I'm parlay in the under...
GL!
Posted:
#58
everyone has a pretty good view. i always was told by the old school gangsters.if u r going to take home dog under the lights make dam sure defence is good. and u getting 6pts. kc is + 3 not wise to go against brady.on paper dont look like a shoot out im going with the under in this one .
Posted:
#59
Quote Originally Posted by Volstregnth:
The best play is the total. The over in primetime games is 10-2 this season. Vegas will not let this trend continue. They set the number high, too high, the under is the play. I am playing a nickel on under and since I never take the away favorite on Monday night football, I am parlaying the chiefs +3 and under 47 for 100 to get back 260. I expect a 760 gain tonight.
The best play is the total. The over in primetime games is 10-2 this season. Vegas will not let this trend continue. They set the number high, too high, the under is the play. I am playing a nickel on under and since I never take the away favorite on Monday night football, I am parlaying the chiefs +3 and under 47 for 100 to get back 260. I expect a 760 gain tonight.
yes true, but theres a few reasons i disagree.
1. TV money trumps gambling money, scoring = ratings
2. Vegas doesnt control anything, i live here. and they take losses all the time
3. spread $ trumps total $, EVERYTIME!
4. (for the last part) if you like the underdog, you like the OVER. I dont get why people deny this simple math. if youre taking points, and like the under what sense does that make? you must assume the fave is gonna get theirs, and the dog will have to "keep up" which would mean over....
Posted:
#64
Quote Originally Posted by BigBaseballbets:
yes true, but theres a few reasons i disagree.
1. TV money trumps gambling money, scoring = ratings
2. Vegas doesnt control anything, i live here. and they take losses all the time
3. spread $ trumps total $, EVERYTIME!
4. (for the last part) if you like the underdog, you like the OVER. I dont get why people deny this simple math. if youre taking points, and like the under what sense does that make? you must assume the fave is gonna get theirs, and the dog will have to "keep up" which would mean over....
In response to number 4, I expect it to be a low scoring defensive battle.... and I'm betting that New England wins by less than 4....
I think I goes wayyyy under and we see a lot of fgs.... in see what your saying about keeping score but it's gonna be hard to score 24 points in Primetime in KC vs that defense....
But who knows.... 1 special teams ruNyack and over it is!
Gl
Posted:
#67
Quote Originally Posted by BigBaseballbets:
yes true, but theres a few reasons i disagree.
1. TV money trumps gambling money, scoring = ratings
2. Vegas doesnt control anything, i live here. and they take losses all the time
3. spread $ trumps total $, EVERYTIME!
4. (for the last part) if you like the underdog, you like the OVER. I dont get why people deny this simple math. if youre taking points, and like the under what sense does that make? you must assume the fave is gonna get theirs, and the dog will have to "keep up" which would mean over....
You make a lot of sense BigB. Since I am going with the OVER and not sure on the side, I will take your advice and parley on KC/Over just for the hell of it! But OVER is still my main bet. Thanks........
Posted:
#70
Quote Originally Posted by BostonForever:
GO PATS!!!!!!!!!! 
Hey there my friend I'm always a believer in my Pats, but they truly are struggling in nearly all areas, that's just not how they are. I've got confidence that they'll come together but it's tough watching them play so far this year. Mass amounts of talent that lacks something. Time will make them gel, champions do prevail.
GO PATS!!!!!!!!!! I'm with you bro.They have been running well with Ridley. I am concerned about J.Charles coming back and K.Davis has been able to move the ball but has fumbled 3 times.Now doubt in who the better QB is.Have to go with my Pat's -3.
Posted:
#72
Quote Originally Posted by BreakaBookie:
In response to number 4, I expect it to be a low scoring defensive battle.... and I'm betting that New England wins by less than 4....
I think I goes wayyyy under and we see a lot of fgs.... in see what your saying about keeping score but it's gonna be hard to score 24 points in Primetime in KC vs that defense....
But who knows.... 1 special teams ruNyack and over it is!
Gl
Yes definitely, i didnt mean it to be specific to this game. more of a general statement. usually applies to spreads like 6 or bigger. but in this scenario i think it may apply because brady will definitely be looking to get that offense going after that terrible showing against oakland. so kc will need to keep up, which would mean over.
if you look at nfl/nba scores, or any sport with spreads through out the year, and yrs past. you will see 70+% of the time when the fave covers, it stays under, and when dog covers it goes over. its the simplest of math.
which is why i laugh anytime im at the casino and i see someone do a -10 fave and over parlay. might as well flush that $ down the toilet
Posted:
#73
Quote Originally Posted by shochuman:
You make a lot of sense BigB. Since I am going with the OVER and not sure on the side, I will take your advice and parley on KC/Over just for the hell of it! But OVER is still my main bet. Thanks........
Just some advice and a few things to consider, Thursday, Sunday night, and Monday night games for the year ( over 10-2). If nothing else, you should consider the law of averages. The under is due + all watchers of this game knows KC and in the past NE are known for their defense. I personally think the games are rigged, however that is another story. Here is the storyline because as everyone that watches know that the NFL always has a storyline. The Pats lose tonight but that Def. looks good. Next week the Pats play the undefeated Bengals in primetime and that is when the Pats put it all together and go on a run. Sunday night they play at NE, NE will be a small favorite. Sunday night games the fav is 0-4 for the year. NE wins and covers. Lets test my theory
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