Just pointing out some of the thoughts I had earlier on the tariffs and how they could be inflationary, but not necessarily so; in fact they could actually be anti-inflationary.
You had all of the anti-Trump economists of course guaranteeing that they would be inflationary; and they still are, along with all of the pundits on the news.
Yet, here we are now 40 days into the ‘trade war’ and it does not look so inflationary.
CPI has retracted, or gone down.
True flation curve is at 1.44%, well below the FED’s 2% target.
So, even though the USA is in a trade war, prices are retracting.
I talked and wrote about this in a couple of places how they could possibly be anti-inflationary. But I figured I would post a basic version of that here.
The USA tariffed the World and are renegotiating trade deals.
They have signed a great deal with India, for example. Where the taxes, or tariffs, are dropping on their side of the trade equation. In other words, if they are dropping tariffs from 30% to zero then, in theory, any good the USA gets from them will be 30% cheaper.
But still all of the folks are still saying the tariffs are going to be inflationary — guaranteed.
But we are well into the ‘trade war’ now and CPI just went down.
Durable goods just had their best month ever, from a percentage point.
Now as more and more countries drop their export tariffs that the USA gets paid, the prices of all goods should be coming down as well.
My thought has always been that because of USA consumerism that other countries would drop the taxation on their side, therefore lowering prices.
So, it should not be surprising to these experts and analysts when the CPI goes down, yet again, as the USA secures more trade deals where other countries are no longer taxing those goods.
This would be a retraction in prices and not an increase in prices.
So, I look for CPI next month to come in below analyst’s expectations again. Because countries are dropping their export tariffs on their side. Which will make the prices of the goods retract, not increase.
Obviously, there is a bit more to it than that. And certainly it is a fluid and dynamic equation where a lot of things could happen and change the outlook. But we shall see.
President Trump...........
but...but...but... the disgusting racist, convicted felon leader of the GOP and head of the notorious trump Crime Family explicitly 
Perhaps when more non-governmental workers start losing their jobs or work less hours, people will wake the fuck up!
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