The Great Trump Recession!

10 year already down to 3.5 

@fubah2

This will happen since there is lack of guardrail to the executive branch.  

How long will the GOP let Trump piss trillions away in this economic hurricane? Winning like you have never seen before! 

@joe pockets

 what are they going to do / what can they do? 

@fubah2

my hunch is that needle just moved up higher today

thanks to rump

who will blame it all on joe biden

@KellyM_1964

Biden seems the greatest reliever to Trump, when things went massy and chaotic. Just blame them to Biden, easy and simple.

jp morgans   bruce kasman said the tariffs are a tax on american consumers and an=mount to the largest tax increase since 1968

Stock markets have been extended for quite some time but this 10 plus TRILLION drop in US markets since Trump 2.0 is a bit out of control and was avoidable.

I think someone needs to tell Fox News that the markets are down, I do not see any coverage on this on their site.

Charles Koch, of all people, is suing to block tariffs!

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/4/6/2314932/-Surviving-Koch-Brother-Moves-to-Crush-Trump-and-Tariffs

wow that article is unreal. Are these guys now trying to buy their way into heaven by changing their ways?

I’m old enough to remember that in 2022 the Nasdaq dropped 30% and the S&P 500 was down 20% and the media spent the year telling us that we weren’t in a recession and in fact the definition of a recession we had always used wasn’t actually correct 

@kcblitzkrieg

 Problem there is we have heavy inflation now much worse than 2022 so the drop in the market really is not just due to recession fears but the way the bond dropped last week was for sure recession sniffing. Markets in 2022 were investigating supply chain inflation but conditions now are worse and supply chain excuses are much less too.

@wallstreetcappers

 "the media spent the year telling us that we weren’t in a recession and in fact the definition of a recession we had always used wasn’t actually correct"

vs. the media today  

@wallstreetcappers

  Problem there is we have heavy inflation now much worse than 2022 

What???  Check your notes on what inflation was that year.... 

@wallstreetcappers

 Good point about bonds, and it's true conditions are worse now.

However I believe trump will first blame Democrats for everything then flip-flop on his worldwide destructive tariff war so he can save face and claim total victory.

@kcblitzkrieg

 I guess you have to decide what you term inflation is it based on a watered down stripped CPI or is it based on what you actually experience as a consumer. Prices were rising in 2022 no question, but I consider that due to inventories off ZIRP passing by and higher finance costs passed on to the consumer plus supply chain. I do not think based on being a consumer that prices have gone down even with supply chain easing. Then you have pockets of price increases which we did not have back then like eggs of course. Id suggest in 2022 there were still inventories being cycled through at lower costs, now we have higher costs that are still inching up and some pockets of extreme cost increases. Ive noticed meat products, coffee, chocolate, eggs are much higher now than 2022 and in general overall prices are the same and higher. The point being that supply chain was the reason given then, Id say it was more inventory depletion and higher finance costs but thats just me.

@wallstreetcappers

 I guess you have to decide what you term inflation is it based on a watered down stripped CPI 

The watered down cpi that was the highest ever in my lifetime that was as high as 9% and only one month (DEC) below 7  

I don't remember when they changed the formula for it removing the shelter or modifying it, I forget I'd have to look it up.....remember, all we were told was the joke of an excuse "it was transitory".  I remember well.... 

Have to compare apples to apples, one can't use one standard today and a different one for 2022.  My original comment you replied to was a shot at the media of course.  Not arguing the reasons for inflation from 22 to now.  3% today vs. 9% back then is a big difference.  

@fubah2

 Both sides blame the other and use most any opportunity to try and make political points.

True that 

@kcblitzkrieg

 10 year already down to 3.5 

They had been levered up a good bit.  
Then with the Bessent strategy under the CR it actually created a shortage of the 10 year.  Then the HFs bid them up because they needed them for their leverage.  
People sometimes fail to realize that they manage their portfolios by duration and not by yield like the normal folks do.  
So, now it looks like there was no rush to safety.  
People keyed in on the tariffs (which for sure is a huge concern) but it was more about a rebalancing.  So, once the leverage starts to kick in and they are calling for more margin and there was a lot of liquidating going on.  
So, this weekend we talked about the next day would be all about deleveraging — that would be Monday.  
So, if you are deleveraging what can you then sell?  You can sell your 10 years — because you do not need them anymore.  Especially once the algorithms kick in and tell them they have reached a certain price and point in the duration and it is no longer worthwhile to hold that position. 

Today was simply the market delevering.  

We were talking this weekend and folks were asking about a ‘Black Monday’.  I told them that the short bonds do not seem to be under stress.  They may be, but we really do not see it.  
If the short end of the debt market is okay, then it is rebalancing and delevering.  
For sure, the deleveraging could lead to a credit event.  
Right now it simply does seem like it, considering the way the bonds and the treasuries are trading.   But time will tell.

This for sure is not 2008 or even in the ball park of a bond market meltdown because unlike past events there has been absolutely no rush to the FED credit lines or reverse repo markets so that means banks are not at the begging trough due to margin calls or liquidations. Until events start impacting banks, slime ball hedgies or credit firms then the FED will not bow down to the king and lower rates due to only stock prices given that inflation is still high, employment is low and the actions of Trump thus far are potentially inflationary. 

The only way to get the FED to pivot as Trump wants is for banks to start cracking and you would see it in their stock prices and mentioning of using FED facilities, that is not the case yet.

Trump is destroying the world economies, tanking our stock market, prices are gonna go thru the roof and this orange wanna be dictator is planning a military parade thru DC to celebrate his birthday. Could there be a bigger waste of tax payer money then this. Have we now become a full fledged dictator ship where everything is done to please king trumpy?  Where is musk and doge to say this is a waste of money, which will be close to a 100 million dollars.

This might sound like a joke, but there might actually come a day when trumpy orders every household to hang pictures of him in their house,

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-planning-military-parade-dc-165219685.html

Sad part is the maga moron cult members wont say 1 word about this and will defend trumpy doing it.  They will say things like he deserves it and other non sense.

@cd329

And/or his golf excursions every week....and cryptocurrency scam...etc, etc.