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Presidential Election

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Posted: #851
Van....everyone with skin in the game knows that HRC is not a lock. Only dl36(RIP) and Lord say that the election is over.

I'll repeat my go-to line...........This election is over when our accounts get credited. And since none of us ( I think) bet with PaddyPower, anything can happen.

BUT I GO BACK TO THE VERY FIRST POST IN THIS 850 POST THREAD WHEN I START FEELING AN UNEASE IN THE OUTCOME. ABSOLUTELY NOTHING HAS CHANGED. THE MATH IS THE MATH AND THE DEMOGRAPHICS REMAIN THE SAME.

BOL and please let us know if you are adding any prop bets to this election. Thank You
 
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Posted: #852
You're welcome IYL16. No autopsy and he was cremated as a Catholic. Absolute head shaker. You will not hear this from Jake Tapper or John Roberts.
 
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Posted: #853
One quick question..........Sundance actually brings up a relevant point.

Lots of chatter on TV today that If HRC wins, then DJT may not concede.

We saw it happen in 2000. If HRC wins, but DJT decides to contest the results, what happens to the status of moneyline bets? Will books hold onto money or payout immediately?

2000 was a razor thin margin. But lets say she wins pop vote by 5% and EC easily but he still contests. What would books do with payouts Van or anyone?
Thanks
 
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Posted: #854
Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:







finally, there's was a huge Meth sting down here which will hurt trump's chances even more. 


   I don't know where you are, or if your serious or not, but either way,,,,,,,,,    
 
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Posted: #855
Quote Originally Posted by Sabanesque:


There is no law to oblige anyone to concede. I have heard that his son in law (husband to Ivanka) has been inquiring seriously about buying/funding a channel similar to One America News, as an alternative media voice. It seems to me this will be his next move (Presidency is NOT a good job to have anyways). I believe he will continue his attacks on the mainstream media, media collusion (with Iraq war, with Hillary, etc) from a business venture of this kind.  Discourse is always good for democracy (JFK), and this could be a blessing for future GOP nominees. 

I do not see any wager worthwhile, except to back Trump in Ohio and Arizona, also Iowa. 

Hillary is looking for a mandate, but I do not think it will come to fruition. Her win will be more anti Trump than a mandate for "change"--she is not a change person either, just a competent manager of needed/wanted legislation and status quo for Wall Street or military. No mandate. Over 369 electoral votes +220 is an awful waste of money.

That's all fine and dandy. But the question remains........If she wins and he says that she didn't, and he starts with the empty threats of lawsuits and his usual rigged talk, claiming that he won and demands a recount or something along those lines..........Is this a classic case of "payout at book manager discretion" or do they hold onto to the payouts until the anarchy dies down?
 
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Posted: #856
Quote Originally Posted by Inyourlife16:

One quick question..........Sundance actually brings up a relevant point.

Lots of chatter on TV today that If HRC wins, then DJT may not concede.

We saw it happen in 2000. If HRC wins, but DJT decides to contest the results, what happens to the status of moneyline bets? Will books hold onto money or payout immediately?

2000 was a razor thin margin. But lets say she wins pop vote by 5% and EC easily but he still contests. What would books do with payouts Van or anyone?
Thanks

The holdup in 2000 was because the winning candidate needed certification of the results from Florida. Each state determines the procedures for certification and some states (not Florida) require an automatic recount if the vote is within a certain percentage. 

In 2000, books did not pay out until the certification process allowed a candidate to reach 270. I expect that books will pay this year as soon as 270 are certified. 
 
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Posted: #857
Quote Originally Posted by djbrow:


The holdup in 2000 was because the winning candidate needed certification of the results from Florida. Each state determines the procedures for certification and some states (not Florida) require an automatic recount if the vote is within a certain percentage. 

In 2000, books did not pay out until the certification process allowed a candidate to reach 270. I expect that books will pay this year as soon as 270 are certified. 


Thanks for the explanation DJ
 
Captain
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Posted: #858
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


Slightly disagree...

The books number is not a number of what the polls are.  The books number is a number of balanced action of what people are betting.

Now - you can make the argument that people are using the polls to determine their wagers - but the betting odds are determined by action - not polls directly.  Afterall - how would one determine that a 5% national poll lead for HRC would equal -550 while a 4% national poll lead would equal something else?

Overall - it is still pretty surprising to me that you have everyone assuming HRC is a lock - while she is still only about -550 in the betting odds.  That is worrysome as a HRC bettor.  



it's -700 now. still not a lock, but more representative of the what the polls are telling us state to state.
 
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Posted: #859
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:



it's -700 now. still not a lock, but more representative of the what the polls are telling us state to state.

Still -550 at Bovada. A quick scan of oddschecker shows a bunch of -600 and -700. Also one book at -800.

It's time for -550 to get on its
 
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Posted: #860
october surprise for donald trump

"I've known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy, he's a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it -- Jeffrey enjoys his social life." - Donald Trump

https://nymag.com/nymetro/news/people/n_7912/

In light of the access hollywood video and groping donalds got bigger problems.

On Dec 20 2016 donald has to be in court in Jane Doe Case involving alleged rape of a 13 year old girl with buddy billionaire and convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein at a party at Epstein's Mansion with underaged girls.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/mikehayes/attorney-donald-trump-will-have-to-answer-teens-rape-accusat?utm_term=.vwowDXqvm#.foL8gd6aX

https://www.dailywire.com/news/5556/7-things-you-need-know-about-trump-and-sex-slave-amanda-prestigiacomo#

https://www.bluedotdaily.com/sworn-testimony-from-trump-rape-case-released-and-its-bad-news-for-trumps-campaign/

In another deposition, Epstein’s brother Mark testified he once flew on Jeffrey Epstein’s plane with both him and Trump, who were “friends.” Asked why Trump was on board, Mark Epstein replied, “You’ll have to ask Donald." 

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/1508967-deposition-excerpts.html#document
 
Captain
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Posted: #861
sam wang at the Princeton election consortium says that the probability of a Clinton win is 99%.
 
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Posted: #862
He may not accept the result. But he won't do anything to formally challenge. He never backs up words with actions. What happened to suing the NY Times? It was just froth until he could divert to the next nonsense. There is ZERO chance he will formally contest because he knows he has no actual evidence to support his claim
 
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Posted: #863
Quote Originally Posted by Ramanujan:

He may not accept the result. But he won't do anything to formally challenge. He never backs up words with actions. What happened to suing the NY Times? It was just froth until he could divert to the next nonsense. There is ZERO chance he will formally contest because he knows he has no actual evidence to support his claim


of all of the ridiculous things trump has said, and of course the list is long, suing the NY Times is probably the most ridiculous. 

i have no idea what trump will do after his beatdown on Nov 8.  i have to assume he knows it's coming at this point.  he'll probably make a few incendiary speeches, claim it was rigged and then walk away from this thing having grifted a shitload of money and trying to figure out how to parlay this whole thing into some new busines venture.
 
Legend
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Posted: #864
Quote Originally Posted by Ramanujan:

He may not accept the result. But he won't do anything to formally challenge. He never backs up words with actions. What happened to suing the NY Times? It was just froth until he could divert to the next nonsense. There is ZERO chance he will formally contest because he knows he has no actual evidence to support his claim

Maybe he'll try to sue everyone who voted for Hillary
 
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Posted: #865
Trump won't challenge the results. Clinton will. 

The revenue from a book, documentary, and possibly news network will pay Trump for years to come. After all, he will carry nearly half of the vote. Lots of potential customers.

Of course, if Trump is elected, he will be taking a pretty massive pay-cut.
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
 
MVP
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Posted: #866
Third party coming out this.
 
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Posted: #867
Quote Originally Posted by Inyourlife16:


Still -550 at Bovada. A quick scan of oddschecker shows a bunch of -600 and -700. Also one book at -800.

It's time for -550 to get on its

A little something........not much, but something:
Bovada went to -600
 
Legend
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Posted: #868
Trump seems very likely to tear up GOP's Senate majority, CNN/Pivit has 25% for GOP to retain Senate majority. Book also posts -290 on "Republicans no longer Senate majority". 
 
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Posted: #869
Race is tightening. Bovada went from -600 to -500
 
Legend
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Posted: #870
Quote Originally Posted by Inyourlife16:

Race is tightening. Bovada went from -600 to -500

Woman voters will make a huge difference here in the 2016 campaign, I perceive. 
 
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Posted: #871
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:


Woman voters will make a huge difference here in the 2016 campaign, I perceive. 

I know buddy.........but no one likes to see line movement against them.

I have been staying off your WS post because I am superstitious. But I watch your plays and continue to pull for you. When the series is over, I hope to hop on and wish you a hearty congratulations Europa! 
 
Legend
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Posts: 42786
Posted: #872
Quote Originally Posted by Inyourlife16:


I know buddy.........but no one likes to see line movement against them.

I have been staying off your WS post because I am superstitious. But I watch your plays and continue to pull for you. When the series is over, I hope to hop on and wish you a hearty congratulations Europa! 

The so called "alpha male" could get steamrolled by a huge herd of lionesses.  

Cubs are a very good team, may be this is the year they get the 100 plus years curse off them. I just think these Indians can give Cubs a run for their money. Indians have been riding on some hot streaks during this MLB postseason, last night seemed a wake up call to them. If Cleveland should win one or two games at Wrigley Field, they can win this series. Cubs may win this series but I'll take my chances at +180. GL! 
 
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Posted: #873
Quote Originally Posted by Inyourlife16:

Race is tightening. Bovada went from -600 to -500

I make a bet on Trump, and lines across the board come tumbling down.

Coincidence? I think not.

In betting parlors they refer to this as the "Hugh Effect" 
bigreds daddy
 
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Posted: #874
Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:


I make a bet on Trump, and lines across the board come tumbling down.

Coincidence? I think not.

In betting parlors they refer to this as the "Hugh Effect" 

I know.........bells, whistles and flashing lights starting going off after you placed your wager. Word on the street is that PaddyPower had an emergency meeting with their insurance company this morning after learning of your wager. I wish you had stayed on the sideline for this election. I guess the OH avatar bet didn't give you enough action this cycle..........BOL
 
 
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Posted: #875
Ever since the breaking news of FBI is reopening HRC's email investigation, the odds of HRC have been tumbling to -485 from -600.

It has never been out of surprises in this campaign, perhaps even after Nov. 08.   
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