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    All Forums | Politics

    Presidential Election

    «First Previous 293031 ... 394041 Next Last»
    DogbiteWilliams
    Skipster
    Europa
    sicknesscity
    mainman11111
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    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Sep. 27, 2016 - 12:10 PM ET #701

    Giuliani knows Trump stunk up the joint; he says Trump may not participate in future debates:

    https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/297967-giuliani-i-wouldnt-debate-again-after-holts-interference#.V-pPm-_Lwxg.twitter
    Reply
    Giuliani knows Trump stunk up the joint; he says Trump may not participate in future debates:

    https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/297967-giuliani-i-wouldnt-debate-again-after-holts-interference#.V-pPm-_Lwxg.twitter
     
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Sep. 27, 2016 - 7:52 PM ET #702

    PA focus group says HRC dominated the debate:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/09/27/clinton_dominated_debate_pa_focus_group_says.html

    The group of undecided PA voters was moderated by pollster Frank Luntz, a conservative Republican.
    Reply
    PA focus group says HRC dominated the debate:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/09/27/clinton_dominated_debate_pa_focus_group_says.html

    The group of undecided PA voters was moderated by pollster Frank Luntz, a conservative Republican.
     
    Skipster
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    Posted: Sep. 30, 2016 - 7:53 PM ET #703

    HRC at -235 still pretty cheap considering recent data IMO. Predictwise has her at 78% chance of winning. 538 numbers moving. Stossel's site has her at 68% as of now. if wagering numbers were in line, should be around -300.
    Reply
    HRC at -235 still pretty cheap considering recent data IMO. Predictwise has her at 78% chance of winning. 538 numbers moving. Stossel's site has her at 68% as of now. if wagering numbers were in line, should be around -300.
     
    Europa
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    Posted: Sep. 30, 2016 - 10:55 PM ET #704

    Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

    HRC at -235 still pretty cheap considering recent data IMO. Predictwise has her at 78% chance of winning. 538 numbers moving. Stossel's site has her at 68% as of now. if wagering numbers were in line, should be around -300.

    Odds depend on the possibility of various sites, i.e. chance of winning in every polls. Wagering number should be -355 at Predictsiwe if her chance is around 78%. 

    68% converts to -212, 5dimes has HRC -255 which translates she is having almost 72% of beating Trump. But i think -255 is a tadunder valued, CNN/Pivit has her winning at 76% currently.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

    HRC at -235 still pretty cheap considering recent data IMO. Predictwise has her at 78% chance of winning. 538 numbers moving. Stossel's site has her at 68% as of now. if wagering numbers were in line, should be around -300.

    Odds depend on the possibility of various sites, i.e. chance of winning in every polls. Wagering number should be -355 at Predictsiwe if her chance is around 78%. 

    68% converts to -212, 5dimes has HRC -255 which translates she is having almost 72% of beating Trump. But i think -255 is a tadunder valued, CNN/Pivit has her winning at 76% currently.
     
    sicknesscity
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    Posted: Oct. 1, 2016 - 12:45 AM ET #705

    I'd say Trump had a pretty bad week.  As I predicted on here months ago, he would need to win the first debate to even have a realistic chance of winning the general election.  The moron thought being unprepared and impromptu were the necessary moves to appear authentic and win over undecided voters.  Perhaps he should listen to Frank Luntz, a Republican pollster who found the most negative reaction Trump received is when he attacked Hillary for Bill Clinton's indiscretions.  I sincerely hope he tries to do that during the next debate because I already know Hillary has prepared a defense and remarks to address Donald's concerns.

    While we're at it, hasn't Donald cheated on his past wives?  I wonder if there's a chance that Hillary would mention something about that?  I'm still waiting for a moderator or a journalist to ask Trump about his use of slave labor in Dubai to build his golf course.  Unfortunately, they're not hard enough on him.  He should be getting hammered for it. 
    Reply
    I'd say Trump had a pretty bad week.  As I predicted on here months ago, he would need to win the first debate to even have a realistic chance of winning the general election.  The moron thought being unprepared and impromptu were the necessary moves to appear authentic and win over undecided voters.  Perhaps he should listen to Frank Luntz, a Republican pollster who found the most negative reaction Trump received is when he attacked Hillary for Bill Clinton's indiscretions.  I sincerely hope he tries to do that during the next debate because I already know Hillary has prepared a defense and remarks to address Donald's concerns.

    While we're at it, hasn't Donald cheated on his past wives?  I wonder if there's a chance that Hillary would mention something about that?  I'm still waiting for a moderator or a journalist to ask Trump about his use of slave labor in Dubai to build his golf course.  Unfortunately, they're not hard enough on him.  He should be getting hammered for it. 
     
    mainman11111
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    Posted: Oct. 1, 2016 - 7:50 AM ET #706

    when has trump ever had a good week? not since being nominated.
    Reply
    when has trump ever had a good week? not since being nominated.
     
    Europa
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    Posted: Oct. 3, 2016 - 10:07 AM ET #707

    Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

    HRC at -235 still pretty cheap considering recent data IMO. Predictwise has her at 78% chance of winning. 538 numbers moving. Stossel's site has her at 68% as of now. if wagering numbers were in line, should be around -300.

    Tide has been rising, HRC is at -275 now, Skip. 
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

    HRC at -235 still pretty cheap considering recent data IMO. Predictwise has her at 78% chance of winning. 538 numbers moving. Stossel's site has her at 68% as of now. if wagering numbers were in line, should be around -300.

    Tide has been rising, HRC is at -275 now, Skip. 
     
    Skipster
    Skipster
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    Posted: Oct. 3, 2016 - 6:29 PM ET #708

    Quote Originally Posted by Europa:


    Tide has been rising, HRC is at -275 now, Skip. 


    now seeing -300.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Europa:


    Tide has been rising, HRC is at -275 now, Skip. 


    now seeing -300.
     
    sundance
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    Posted: Oct. 3, 2016 - 6:40 PM ET #709

    Assange has a dump Tuesday morning at 2 am est.

    Reply

    Assange has a dump Tuesday morning at 2 am est.

     
    sundance
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    Posted: Oct. 4, 2016 - 7:24 AM ET #710

    No dump from Assange.
    Reply
    No dump from Assange.
     
    gmitran
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    Posted: Oct. 4, 2016 - 10:28 AM ET #711

    Quote Originally Posted by sundance:

    No dump from Assange.


    IMO, It's obvious he has nothing damaging against her as what perfect time to release it than this morning, 10 year anniversary infomercial asking for money and slow down the tide against Trump given all the pollings coming out after debate.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by sundance:

    No dump from Assange.


    IMO, It's obvious he has nothing damaging against her as what perfect time to release it than this morning, 10 year anniversary infomercial asking for money and slow down the tide against Trump given all the pollings coming out after debate.
     
    Skipster
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    Posted: Oct. 4, 2016 - 10:29 AM ET #712

    Very little has changed since Van's first post. Trump still has to find a path to beat her in the key states and the numbers in those states don't suggest he will.
    Reply
    Very little has changed since Van's first post. Trump still has to find a path to beat her in the key states and the numbers in those states don't suggest he will.
     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Oct. 4, 2016 - 11:02 AM ET #713

    Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

    Very little has changed since Van's first post. Trump still has to find a path to beat her in the key states and the numbers in those states don't suggest he will.

    This.

    Someone tell me how he is going to win those states.  Not some, but all.

    To answer my own question - the only way I see it happening is with an event.  A wikileaks dump.  A revelation.  A colossal mistake.  A health event.

    I have been saying it from the beginning, dont get lost in the noise of national polls.  This is simple math.  Fivethirtyeight has florida alone at a 62% for clinton - and this is basically all she needs.  Add in that every other swing state (except for Ohio) is blue - and it would take a lot more than +300 to make an argument for Trump.

    I assume the +300 number has the risk I mention in the number.   But just like an option in the stock market - as the settlement date gets closer and closer - the odds of that go dramatically down and will be in the price of the wager.

    If the election were tomorrow - her current odds would be 1-10 at least.
    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

    Very little has changed since Van's first post. Trump still has to find a path to beat her in the key states and the numbers in those states don't suggest he will.

    This.

    Someone tell me how he is going to win those states.  Not some, but all.

    To answer my own question - the only way I see it happening is with an event.  A wikileaks dump.  A revelation.  A colossal mistake.  A health event.

    I have been saying it from the beginning, dont get lost in the noise of national polls.  This is simple math.  Fivethirtyeight has florida alone at a 62% for clinton - and this is basically all she needs.  Add in that every other swing state (except for Ohio) is blue - and it would take a lot more than +300 to make an argument for Trump.

    I assume the +300 number has the risk I mention in the number.   But just like an option in the stock market - as the settlement date gets closer and closer - the odds of that go dramatically down and will be in the price of the wager.

    If the election were tomorrow - her current odds would be 1-10 at least.
     
    gmitran
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    Posted: Oct. 4, 2016 - 11:53 AM ET #714

    ^^^  True but wouldn't you agree it was pretty damn close just before the debate with swing states OH, FL, CO, NH, IO, and NV all in play for him.  It all went down hill after first 20 minutes of debate.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-how-big-is-hillary-clintons-lead/
    Reply
    ^^^  True but wouldn't you agree it was pretty damn close just before the debate with swing states OH, FL, CO, NH, IO, and NV all in play for him.  It all went down hill after first 20 minutes of debate.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-how-big-is-hillary-clintons-lead/
     
    sundance
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    Posted: Oct. 4, 2016 - 1:02 PM ET #715

    Trump draws thousands and Hillary 'might' draw a dozen to an event. The polls should be proven wrong if the machines are honest and legitimate. Brexit was down 4 points the day of the vote and won. Assange does not release anything this morning. Had to be seriously threatened. Coin flip regardless of Clinton -300.

    Reply

    Trump draws thousands and Hillary 'might' draw a dozen to an event. The polls should be proven wrong if the machines are honest and legitimate. Brexit was down 4 points the day of the vote and won. Assange does not release anything this morning. Had to be seriously threatened. Coin flip regardless of Clinton -300.

     
    mainman11111
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    Posted: Oct. 4, 2016 - 1:16 PM ET #716

    Reply
     
    sundance
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    Posted: Oct. 4, 2016 - 1:24 PM ET #717

    I have to tell you. These emotional emoticons are something else. Is that noise in your background of Hillary knee buckling, hitting her head on the concrete resulting in a coma?
    Reply
    I have to tell you. These emotional emoticons are something else. Is that noise in your background of Hillary knee buckling, hitting her head on the concrete resulting in a coma?
     
    Skipster
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2016 - 7:35 PM ET #718

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


    This.

    Someone tell me how he is going to win those states.  Not some, but all.

    To answer my own question - the only way I see it happening is with an event.  A wikileaks dump.  A revelation.  A colossal mistake.  A health event.

    I have been saying it from the beginning, dont get lost in the noise of national polls.  This is simple math.  Fivethirtyeight has florida alone at a 62% for clinton - and this is basically all she needs.  Add in that every other swing state (except for Ohio) is blue - and it would take a lot more than +300 to make an argument for Trump.

    I assume the +300 number has the risk I mention in the number.   But just like an option in the stock market - as the settlement date gets closer and closer - the odds of that go dramatically down and will be in the price of the wager.

    If the election were tomorrow - her current odds would be 1-10 at least.


    Events can swing both ways, no? There is risk that someone dumps the rest of Donald's taxes maybe?

    Anyhow, yes as we get closer to the date, the situation will begin to harden.

    At betfair (which trades like a stock), trump is paying 4-1.


    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


    This.

    Someone tell me how he is going to win those states.  Not some, but all.

    To answer my own question - the only way I see it happening is with an event.  A wikileaks dump.  A revelation.  A colossal mistake.  A health event.

    I have been saying it from the beginning, dont get lost in the noise of national polls.  This is simple math.  Fivethirtyeight has florida alone at a 62% for clinton - and this is basically all she needs.  Add in that every other swing state (except for Ohio) is blue - and it would take a lot more than +300 to make an argument for Trump.

    I assume the +300 number has the risk I mention in the number.   But just like an option in the stock market - as the settlement date gets closer and closer - the odds of that go dramatically down and will be in the price of the wager.

    If the election were tomorrow - her current odds would be 1-10 at least.


    Events can swing both ways, no? There is risk that someone dumps the rest of Donald's taxes maybe?

    Anyhow, yes as we get closer to the date, the situation will begin to harden.

    At betfair (which trades like a stock), trump is paying 4-1.


     
    Europa
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2016 - 7:47 PM ET #719

    Or something like, Bill Clinton calls "Obamacare is the craziest thing in the world". That kind of liability is going to trip Hillary's steps toward White House. For the sake of helping HRC in this campaign, Bill Clinton should just stay home and be quiet. Jesus H. Christ.  
    Reply
    Or something like, Bill Clinton calls "Obamacare is the craziest thing in the world". That kind of liability is going to trip Hillary's steps toward White House. For the sake of helping HRC in this campaign, Bill Clinton should just stay home and be quiet. Jesus H. Christ.  
     
    TILTOLOGIC
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2016 - 8:35 PM ET #720

    Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

    Or something like, Bill Clinton calls "Obamacare is the craziest thing in the world". That kind of liability is going to trip Hillary's steps toward White House. For the sake of helping HRC in this campaign, Bill Clinton should just stay home and be quiet. Jesus H. Christ.  


    So you don't want anyone to know Obamacare is struggling and dying?  Bill Clinton just stated the truth, albeit for a G rated audience.    Why does that bother you? 

    More importantly, what does that say about you and how you vote? 

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

    Or something like, Bill Clinton calls "Obamacare is the craziest thing in the world". That kind of liability is going to trip Hillary's steps toward White House. For the sake of helping HRC in this campaign, Bill Clinton should just stay home and be quiet. Jesus H. Christ.  


    So you don't want anyone to know Obamacare is struggling and dying?  Bill Clinton just stated the truth, albeit for a G rated audience.    Why does that bother you? 

    More importantly, what does that say about you and how you vote? 

     
    Skipster
    Skipster
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2016 - 9:07 PM ET #721

    Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

    Or something like, Bill Clinton calls "Obamacare is the craziest thing in the world". That kind of liability is going to trip Hillary's steps toward White House. For the sake of helping HRC in this campaign, Bill Clinton should just stay home and be quiet. Jesus H. Christ.  


    he plays well in rural areas.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

    Or something like, Bill Clinton calls "Obamacare is the craziest thing in the world". That kind of liability is going to trip Hillary's steps toward White House. For the sake of helping HRC in this campaign, Bill Clinton should just stay home and be quiet. Jesus H. Christ.  


    he plays well in rural areas.
     
    dl36
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2016 - 10:06 PM ET #722

    I can see bill being helpful,  but he might actually be tied to more negative than positive at times. 

    It seems like the best advocate for Hillary would be Michelle Obama. She has the likability and popularity factor that Hillary lacks.  She also comes across as warm and sincere while Hillary lacks that warmth. 

    She can also promote African Americans, minorities and women to show up and vote.   Doesn't matter who they vote for,  in general the more Americans of all types that show up to vote, the better 


    Reply
    I can see bill being helpful,  but he might actually be tied to more negative than positive at times. 

    It seems like the best advocate for Hillary would be Michelle Obama. She has the likability and popularity factor that Hillary lacks.  She also comes across as warm and sincere while Hillary lacks that warmth. 

    She can also promote African Americans, minorities and women to show up and vote.   Doesn't matter who they vote for,  in general the more Americans of all types that show up to vote, the better 


     
    SarasotaSlim
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2016 - 10:38 PM ET #723

    Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

    Or something like, Bill Clinton calls "Obamacare is the craziest thing in the world". That kind of liability is going to trip Hillary's steps toward White House. For the sake of helping HRC in this campaign, Bill Clinton should just stay home and be quiet. Jesus H. Christ.  



    What does the"H" stand for ?
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

    Or something like, Bill Clinton calls "Obamacare is the craziest thing in the world". That kind of liability is going to trip Hillary's steps toward White House. For the sake of helping HRC in this campaign, Bill Clinton should just stay home and be quiet. Jesus H. Christ.  



    What does the"H" stand for ?
     
    Skipster
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2016 - 10:50 PM ET #724

    Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:




    What does the"H" stand for ?


    Howie
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:




    What does the"H" stand for ?


    Howie
     
     
    Europa
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2016 - 12:02 AM ET #725

    Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:




    What does the"H" stand for ?

    Jesus H. Christ--Quint, Jaws

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIIlHDbPWhI
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:




    What does the"H" stand for ?

    Jesus H. Christ--Quint, Jaws

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIIlHDbPWhI
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