ClubDirtSports Playoff Newsletter

I'm expecting 2 good matches.

I miss my fireplace Used to have 125 gal. saltwater fish tank adjacent to it.Long long story.

I have a 29 gallon freshwater tank with a Red Oscar, a Cory catfish, and a Plecostamus (giant scummer) in it. That and a stupid rabbit who I built a luxury 2 story hotel for. Nevertheless, the rabbit is potty trained and much easier to care for than the normal dog or cat. Rabbits are very underrated pets. 

Is that one of those floppy eared rascals

Here's a breakdown of what the paid sports services (aka touts) have released so far:

Locked and loaded ...

Damn these touts... why do they have to be on the Over?

Dough coming in on Carolina seeing the hook off shore.

Hey JoeDirt

Carolina -3.5  in the super bowl

get this now if you want it. 

i think BWS f*cking with you has given you ptsd like that palin kid has.

I thought they were gonna hang the -5 on Carolina. Gezz you have a team that narrowly misses going undefeated with a qb that is a force and playing outta his mind against...I think Denver is gonna need 120 or more from their running game to have a chance to beat the Carolina Cams.

idle, i was watching closely when the linjes came out.  it opened at 4 and as carolina continued to put a beatdown on AZ, the line kept going down for some reason.  it got down to -3 -125, if i remember correctly.  as soon as i saw it go back up, i got it at 3.5 -112.  i see it is 4.5 this morning.  i thought it would be 5 or 5.5. 

i expect the bring the newsletter back next season, hopefully with more success than this season.  

the playoffs are different.  can't be waiting around a few days to check the lines, have to get on them early.  i see 4.5 right now which is still probably worthwhile but i'd try and get 4. 

one reason i bet carolina is i agree denver will need to run the ball to win and i don't see it happening with any consistency. 

so my play is in:

Carolina -3.5 


obviously i could change my mind in two weeks but i like where this bet is right now.

i don't want to repeat myelf too much.  i discussed some of the reasons in this thread and a couple of other people have some good ideas as well.  of course, much of the thread is the usual garbage you get in the nfl forum so try to work your way around that if you want to see what we were thinking yesterday.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102231627


but, as a final newsletter writeup:

first, let's go back to what we were saying before the NE/Denver game.  admittedly, i've been burned too many times betting against Brady/Belichik so i stayed away.  but, the reasons for not betting NE were that you have a team that cannot run the ball at all.  there primary RB would lose to shrimp in the 40 by a few seconds, assuming shrimps could compete the race.  that leaves NE with a completely one dimensional offense which can work when you have brady but leaves no margin for error when you have a shaky OL and are going against the best defense in the league, in the playoffs, on the road, as a road favorite.  if anyone can overcome that, it's NE, but that bet is going to lose more than it wins.  if brady throws two INT's and NE doesn't get any turnovers on their side, they miss an extra point, that kills your razor thin margin of error.

none of that is an issue with carolina.  carolina has a much better balanced offense, they have a better OL, they can run stewart up the middle to mitigate the rush of miller/ware (NE can't), they can run that stewart/newton option that will have to slow the denver pass rush down.  the passing game obviously isn't as good as NE's but carolina has a huge benefit of forcing denver to respect the run which makes carolina's passing game easier than NE's.

on defense, i like their defense better than NE.  i do hope davis is playing.  denver cannot run the ball much easier and should have a harder time against carolina than against Pitt or NE where they really did nothing outside of one long anderson run. assuming denver can't run, carolina's DL should have their way with denver's OL and make it more difficult for manning than it was against Pit and NE, where they struggled to score.  and of course, there's no home field advantage for denver which is always a big plus in the altitude.

can denver win or stay within 3?  of course.  any time you have the best defense in the league, you can win.  and carolina does have weakness on offense- the receivers are average and stewart isn't the the youngest or quickest guy out there and they don't have much depth if there's an injury. 

but, essentially, carolina is just a better and more complete team than NE.  denver has major flaws that will hurt them against carolina and their biggest strength was much worse for NE than it will be for carolina.  as good as denver's defense is, i don't see how they will stop the dual threat newton brings.  and i don't think denver's offense can keep up against a top defense on a neutral field. 

Dirtbag -

sportsfan, don't be fuckin up my pick by taking carolina. 

You can wager Carolina 1000 different ways on SB Sunday... you can bet all of the props for the Carolina offense and defense and you cannot miss.  This team is so much better than their competition.  I have been riding them all season.

I guess I'm in the minority by taking Denver and the points.  Love their defense and Manning on a 2 week rest/preparation.  If Davis plays, he will not be 100%.  I can't see how Manning doesn't come to play after losing his last 2 super bowls.  He'll be prepared for this one and his teammates will be more than ready for his last game as pro.