ClubDirtSports Playoff Newsletter

ok, time for round 2.

went 2-1 on the suggested bets i posted but only played Cincy +3. 

anyway, the playoffs are different, you can't wait around until mid week to check on the lines.  too much attention is given to the playoffs so it helps to check them right away.  if you are betting the playoffs, you'll want to check the vanzacksports thread in the nfl forum for his picks, in-game discussions and discussions about future lines and the lines when they come out.

we were right about AZ being 7 (although you could have had 7.5 briefly when it opened if you like GB).  but, i at least was way off with carolina.  i was hoping to see 6 somewhere but it opened at 2.  i've been down on carolina all season (but fortunately not betting against them much) but i definitely misread how much people read these two teams.  since i was that far off, i took Carolina -2.5 already.

on to the lines as of today

KC @ NE -4.5  i was hoping this would be higher with the idea i would take KC.  but, KC is arguably the hottest team in the league and NE limped into the playoffs with what was a very easy scheduled the last few games.  on the other hand, if edelman is healthy, they are in much better shape now and gibing brady and belichik two weeks to get ready for a game is a big deal.  if you consider the jets playoff quality, NE went 4-2 against playoff level teams, 3-0 at home.  as for injuries, if maclin is hurt, that's a pretty big loss. 

i think KC is the better team but i'm not sure i'd bet against brady and belichik at home, rested with an extra week to prepare, maybe a couple of weeks depending on how they approached the last game or two of the season.

GB @ AZ -7  i missed my chance to fade Wash who i thought was the worst team in the playoffs.  they finished the season and the closest they came to beating a playoff level team was a 14 point loss to the jets.  anyway, i'd say GB is probably the second worst team in the playoffs.  i'm sure some people would argue that.  and having rodgers goes a long way.

AZ is probably the most complete team in the playoffs.  hard to see them losing this game.  my main concern is that while AZ was 4-2 against playoff teams, only one win was by more than 7.

Seattle @ Carolina this has pretty much moved to 3 but you can still get 2.5 if you want to pay $1.25 or so.  i don't get it.  Carolina may not be as popular as seattle but they did go 4-0 against playoff teams.  they were very strong at home.  they appear to be pretty healthy.  i actually wanted to take seattle here but i just don't see it at 3 or less.  this line is based on people's perceptions that seattle is back to the way they were and carolina is a fluke or overrated.  i understand that, but putting this line at 3 or less seems to be an overreaction to that.

i may not keep this but i had to jump on it at 2.5.

Pitt @ Denver Denver is 6.5.  you could have had it for 7 but i don't see how you can bet Pitt on the road against this defense unless you know their injury situation.  you don't want to be on landry jones with a 3rd string RB playing in denver, especially if brown is out.  now, it sounds like brown wll be out and roethlisberger will play but if pretty banged up.  i'd almost be tempted to play denver at less than 7 based on the info we have now- no RB, no brown, injured QB.  i'd expect denver's defense to dominate Pitt if they are putting that out there.  but, if roethlisberger gets better and brown does play (you never know with concussions), then i don't trust denver's shitty offense enough to cover.  so, it doesn't make sense to play this now, but i'll look at denver at 6.5 or better if the news does not improve for Pitt.

Call me crazy but if Brock was the starter i'd feel better and would lay the 6' now.

I suspect everyone with a dollar in their pocket will be playing the Patriots game over the total. These two teams are so underrated defensively, it's silly.Both teams have been great at YPP, fumbles caused, 3rd down %, etc. Not the shootout we expect with Patriot games.

We probably have a good opportunity to make a "last game on my mind" bet even in these playoffs. Everyone saw Green Bay slowly score 35 on a Washington defense hanging by a thread. Obviously the Pack are back.

It's looking more and more like we will not know if Ben is gonna play until sunday.If it goes to 7' and he starts i'm willing to take a shot with them, surprisinly they ran the ball well against Cincy and on the other side Peyton does not instill the same fear of yesteryear.

it looks like ben will play but will be limited and brown will not play.  if that's the case, i think denver will dominate them with their defense.  i wouldn't give more than 7 but would consider 7 or less. 

today they are saying brown is out.  the line is 8 at 5domes.  that's a lot.  how many points can denver score?  you know they aren't going to completely shut pitt down unless roethlisberger goes out.  with roethlisberger, they have to be good for at least 13-20 don't they?

CD i figure this will hit 9 by the time the winning $$ from the other 3 games comes in on Broncos & the losing $$ chasing. Thing about playing Steelers is that if anything happens to Ben everyone, including the Steelers know it's a wrap. I'm sure Tomlin has drilled into Ben how important it will be to get down or throw the ball away instead of trying to extend plays. I think i might just try & hone in on the total.

Books could end up in a dilly of a pickle

i love denver's defense but no way am i laying 8 or more if ben is playing.  looks like pitt or nothing for me and i'll probably wait until sunday to see about injury reports and see how high the line goes. 

i'm going to play these in some amounts today

KC +5
Az -7 -115
AZ TT over 28 (can get this in the drop down menu on 5dimes at -120)

already have Carolina at 2.5

i'm tempted to take Pitt at 7.5 -120 right now but want to wait for more news.  if i can find anything encouraging on roethlisberger in the next two days, i'm going to take it as long as it doesn't fall below 7.  if i see anything negative, i probably just won't bet it.

KC +5, ML

(90) playoffs

K.C. comes within a few seconds of possessing the ball for 38 freaking minutes catch 5pts and still cant get the cover

although the final scores may indicate it, i was way off with those games yesterday.  i'm going to see if i can pick one right this weekend.  looks like roethlisberger is in decent shape and the line is up to 7.5 so have t jump on it.  i actually don't like either of these teams today but i'm playing both based on the odds, all small bets in the playoffs as i haven't see anything i like. 

Carolina -2.5

Pittsburgh +7.5

As of this morning I can get both favs at -3 (-110).

sitting at 3-3 in the playoffs but doing a little better than that money wise since two of those losses were AZ +7 and AZ TT over and i split those bets into pretty much a single unit. still two losses on the record though. 

anyway, i felt like both lines offered good value yesterday even though i didn't like the two teams as much.  it worked out despite pittsburgh's best effort to lose the game and the cover.

as HJS said, both lines next week are pretty much 3.  you can get 3.5 if you want to pay a little extra. 


as for NE/Denver, i am very hesitant to take a one dimensional road favorite playing the best defense in the nfl.  so, i highly doubt i will do that.  as for denver, if the wind is greater than 3 miles per hour, might want to stay away from manning.  he is on his last legs  and his receivers aren't helping.  he had wide open receivers and they either missed his passes or he missed them.  if that was Brady vs Pitt with the way pitt was covering receivers, that would have been 35 - 16.  anyway, it';s hard to have confidence in denver's offense. 

the other thing to worry about is denver's defense, as good as it is, was very vulnerable to Pitt's short passing game, especially the short crossing patterns.  without brown, Pitt's receivers are fast but pretty average.  gronkowski will always get a lot of attention and edelman and amendola might destroy denver with those kinds of routes if denver doesn't fix that and pressure brady.  so, my initial thought is no play. if this line goes to 3.5 or 4, i'd consider the home dog.  but, as bad as manning looked, don't be surprised if denver wins by pressuring brady and NE not being able to run the ball. 

AZ/Carolina: my favorite bet of the weekend was AZ -7 and it really never had a chance of winning, although i suppose it should have pushed.  anyway, carson was obviously terrible.  i was hoping that bad performance would push this line over 3 but not yet.  i think people realize carson is a veteran QB and you can't assume he'll play like garbage again this week.  otherwise, this line would be higher because if AZ plays like they did against GB, they aren't winning or staying within 3.  he's been so good all season so i'm not going to draw any conclusions based on one terrible game.  howevre, this is a much tougher defense than what GB puts out there. 

i think AZ is the better team.  i don't see any weaknesses.  carolina doesn't have any weaknesses either, but i rate AZ just a little better with better coaching.  so, i'm somewhat interested in the +3 but will wait and see if +3.5 gets cheaper.

as to the super bowl, i don't see any matchups that excite me from a betting perspective.  maybe carolina over denver at -3, if that's available, but i doubt we get that matchup and the line would probably be higher. 

you friggin killed it yesterday, especially that middle.  i'm sure you enjoyed watching the end of that game even more than i did. 

Locked in NE -3 (-110)

Yeah nice middling there buddy

Earlier in the week I was confident that the NE/Den line would go to 3.5, but it's not looking too good right now.